Anti-investing?

I think you’re merging different activities which may have been done by the same bank, but would have taken place in different parts of the bank. And the cross-purpose activities would have only happened in mega-banks involved in retail and merchant banking, or merchant and investment banking.

The 2008 mortgage crisis was based on the fact that mortgages were cheap, often with little or no down payment, and the banks weren’t properly evaluating the ability of borrowers to pay back the debt. Mortgages are loaned out by retail banks – those involved in savings and lending. Basically, the worst retail banks were interested in collecting fees, not assembling proper mortgage portfolios. They wanted to issue the debt, and then package and resell it. Their profit came from the mortgage fees, not the difference between interest paid out to savers and interest collected from borrowers. To ensure their stream of fees, the banks would make the loans variable – cheap in the short-term, and moving to a higher interest rate after the short term. Rather than moving to the high interest rates, customers would take out a new loan paying the mortgage fees again. I presume this is the restriction on borrowers you’re referring to. The retail banks with this business structure were caught out if, when the merry-go-round ended and debt onselling stopped, they still had substantial unprofitable loans in their mortgage book.

Merchant banks were the banks who bought the mortgages, clumped them together, and then transformed them into real estate investment trusts (REITs), a form of bond with the mortgage loans acting as both collateral and the entities making payments to the bond investors. The merchant banks assessed the mortgages making up the REITs, published their assessment in the bond prospectuses, and submitted the assessments to rating agencies such as Moody’s. Many of these assessments were overly optimistic to the point of being fraudulent. Once issued, the REITs were sold, mainly to investment banks, although many would have been resold to institutional investors such as pension funds. Some merchant banks may also have issued credit default swaps, although I believe this was mainly done by specialised insurance groups, primarily AIG. The main intention of this instrument is as insurance for institutional investors. There’s nothing unethical about issuing both a bond and insurance for that bond. In fact, doing so for a bond you know is dodgy is counter-productive.

Investment banks seek to make a profit through investment in markets. They invest both their own money and that of customers, whether savers or investors. Within a banking group, merchant bankers and investment bankers generally aren’t supposed to talk to each other. Using the industry term, they should have a “Chinese wall” separating them. There should also be separations between some activities within an investment bank. Basically, someone trying to sell some instrument to make a profit shouldn’t be talking to someone in the same bank responsible for investing on behalf of customers. Bankers do get punished for violating Chinese walls, but they do have to be caught first. I’m sure there were investment banks buying credit default swaps, probably alongside the REITs and on behalf of their investors, but possibly also as speculation. However, I’m not aware of any banking group where the merchant bank was selling REITs, the investment bank was avoiding those REITs, but was buying credit default swaps for those REITs. I think that would be hugely frowned upon by the regulators. Selling bad bonds from the bank’s book to investors seems more likely, even if it’s supposed to be illegal. However, I don’t recall anyone being caught doing so. There was malfeasance happening at all three levels of banks that I’ve described. However, I don’t believe there was any top-to-bottom conspiracy.

Please note that this post, while long, is a vast simplification. I’m sure there are places where I’ve abridged too far.

Yes, I agree that’s the right analogy - where you’re assuming that the funds to buy the stocks were borrowed initially.

I don’t disagree with anything you wrote, and perhaps my theoretical point was not particularly illuminating. We agree that the key element of risk is to borrow something and sell it short when it’s the kind of thing that might increase in value dramatically, such as Amazon at $10. But shorting a stock with a market cap of $1 trillion, not so much; or a broad market index or a major currency. When only moderate percentage moves are likely, the asymmetry of risk from lognormality is unimportant. With S&P futures, a short position is no more risky than a long position (in fact the reverse, but that’s for other reasons).

Nothing you wrote is novel to me, and I never claimed there was a “top-to-bottom conspiracy,” whatever that means.

Home-buyers?? :confused: No, the “borrowers” were corporations long or short bonds that the bank was betting against. In some cases, corporate customer B was given an incentive to help or hope toward a default by corporation A.

I’m surprised you know so much about the crisis, but didn’t read these stories. I’d Google it for you if properly incentivised.

ETA: Reading your post it almost sounds like you seek the Single One True Story about the crisis. I didn’t claim the malfeasance I mention here was The Key Problem,

Not necessarily.

Sometimes the reason interest rates are falling is because the economy is tanking, and along with that, bond default risk is rising.

If you’re interested in continuing the discussion, I think you’ll need to provide a cite. Am I understanding you correctly? You’re stating that some banks coordinated with their customers to drive those customers’ competitors into bankruptcy, and at the same time bought credit default swaps against the bonds of the companies they were collaborating to drive into bankruptcy?

Or did you mean something else from this sentence?

It’s conceivable that one arm of a bank was refusing to support a customer that had loans from the bank, while another arm was “betting” against the customer. If people from the two arms were talking to each other, that’s insider trading. However, the two events could happen independently and be above board. I haven’t heard about credit default swaps regarding them, but lots of people were shorting Lehman Brothers stock. It could easily have happened that some of those people were equity traders at banks that were also trying to clear Lehman Brothers off their loans book.

I don’t remember whether I read the stories in print or on-line; either way finding such stories may be hard — what terms to search?

But here are some related stories: Banks encouraged customers to buy debt the bank was shorting.

Here is a more complicated story in which a bank begs a corporation NOT to pay off a risky loan, so the CDSs still have value. I’ll keep Looking, when I have the time, for similar, more egregious, stories.

Note that if you are a large company or are personally rich, there’s another way to make money off a failing company. The whole Kmart/Sears Holding is a tale of a few people, and Eddie Lampert in particular, making money by driving two companies into the ground. (Both Kmart and Sears had large real estate holdings. The stores actually being open and running was an economic issue.)

In short: make a large loan to a company like Kmart which wastes the money on “modernizations”. When it goes bankrupt you’re the largest credit holder and take over the company. The stockholders get zip (this is where your money comes from). Leverage the real estate to buy/merge into Sears. Sell stock. Repeat.

Of course there are people like Bain Capital that prowled around for companies whose assets were worth more than their stock value and were headed nowhere. Buy 'em, close 'em, sell the pieces.

Naked shorting is illegal. It happens all the time, but it’s illegal.

You are absolutely right and I misspoke. It was a perfectly legitimate brokerage belonging to a major multinational firm and I have absolutely no reason to believe that anything illegal happened; my instructions were simply to sell so-and-so many shares (short) at the market price. (A spectacularly poor move, it turned out, due to some factors I had not taken into account.)

So I was exposed to (theoretically) unlimited losses, but that is not the same as a naked short, since I assumed then and do now that the shares I sold did in fact exist.

This is pretty good. I would argue that to make it quickly understandable, it needs even more simplification, and a bit of mathematical exaggeration to help visualize.

[ul]
[li]Companies 1 - 10 are the frontline lenders and make too many mortgage loans with no income documentation due to loose regulation (I refinanced myself this way, flat out told a guy on the phone I was not gonna give him my 1040’s, he hesitated for like 1 second).[/li][li]Companies 11 - 20 package up the loan obligations into securities and those securities get mis-rated (as to safety) because it’s good for business and nobody’s looking. They know how the loans are being made and don’t care, it’s legal.[/li][li]Companies 21 - 30 borrow to buy those securities and are allowed to leverage them as collateral to buy 10x their putative value in more shit.[/li][li]Company 41 is insuring the securities, and thereby effectively insuring companies 11 - 40, and in order to get all the business, brings in a guy who fills up a whiteboard with squiggly symbols that nobody understands, and winds up pointing to the final squiggly symbol at the bottom right of the whiteboard, which he says means the risk is “Vanishingly small.” When in fact, the correct term would be “Inevitable.”[/li][li]Inevitable happens.[/li][li]Company 41 can’t pay out, and so nobody else can pay their counterparties either. It was just a big circle of dominoes contingent on 41 and that squiggle.[/li][/ul]

Investing does carry some risk, but there are different levels.

When I had some dosh to invest, the informed advice was that I could choose between risk and reward i.e. a safe investment would expect to earn less than a riskier one - but the riskier one was likelier to lose you money.

The extremes illustrating the point were:

  • Government Bonds: very safe with a small rate of interest
  • new gold mine discovery: very risky, but could bring in a huge amount :eek:

My money went into a mixture of Government Bonds / UK Premium Bonds / leading companies shares.
After 7 years, so far, so good!

P.S. I also took tax advice, and after a few years claiming a UK Government tax allowance, my income from all the above is tax-free. :cool: