# Any chance for a Democratic Speaker/House==\>Pres after a 2018 Dem mid-term sweep? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 16, 2017, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335 "2017-01-16T20:29:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/1 "2017-01-16T20:29:02Z")
Here’s a speculative scenario. Trump does such a bad job over the next two years hat 2018 is a wave election for Democrats. Young up and coming Democrats around the country run on a platform that they will begin to fix all the damage Trump has done. Democrats sweep into power and begin simultaneous impeachment proceedings against Trump and Pence. The newly elected Democratic speaker then becomes POTUS. Let’s assume we’re not talking about Pelosi, but someone else that most of the country can support. Is there any chance this might happen? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/2 "2017-01-16T20:39:53Z")
I voted no, but I want to get an idea if this is just wishful thinking or if any of you all think something like this could actually happen. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/3 "2017-01-16T20:46:13Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I voted no, but I want to get an idea if this is just wishful thinking or if any of you all think something like this could actually happen. _Any chanc\*\*e_ it would happen? Sure, but I’d vote “no” since it’s so highly unlikely. Of course 12 months ago (or 3 months ago) would have said the election of someone like Trump was highly unlikely. So, who knows. I will note, however, in well over 200 years we have never had a Speaker of the House fill a vacancy in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/4 "2017-01-16T20:50:58Z")
I read the title and voted yes, mostly based on the “any chance” phrase, but after reading the entire OP, I wish I could change my vote to “no”. You missed a step betwee “Democrats sweep into power and begin simultaneous impeachment proceedings against Trump and Pence.” and “The newly elected Democratic speaker then becomes POTUS.” Hint: It involves the Senate, and it isn’t likely to happen in 2019 or 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/5 "2017-01-16T20:51:43Z")
Could you get enough Senate Republicans on board with an impeachment of Trump? Bear in mind that the GOP defends only 8 Senate seats that year, while Dems and independents defend 25, so a flip of the Senate is highly unlikely, and even so, it’s extremely difficult to get 2/3 of the Senate on board with removing a POTUS\* to let a Democrat become POTUS.\* You could get Republicans to do so if removing Trump means POTUS Pence; in fact, the Republicans themselves might be the biggest cheerleaders of such a move. But getting Republicans to agree to removing POTUS Trump, \*to pave the way for a Democratic president? \*No way. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/6 "2017-01-16T21:09:03Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > … the GOP defends only 8 Senate seats that year, while Dems and independents defend 25 …\* To add some additional context here … 7 of those 8 seats are in states that Trump won (in order from largest to smallest margin: WY, NE, TN; MS, UT, TX, AZ). The lone 2018 Republican Senate seat ‘behind enemy lines’ is Heller’s NV seat. He narrowly won in 2012, and Clinton narrowly won NV in 2016. On the opposite site of the aisle, Dems have 10 of their 25 seats in states won by Trump. These, ‘behind enemy line’ seats, in descending order of Trump’s margin of victory, are: WV, ND, MT, IN, MO, OH, FL, PA, WI, MI. There are still a couple of years of events to affect the outcome, but if I had to guess right now, I’d guess that the Dems lose a few more Senate seats in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/7 "2017-01-16T21:23:30Z")
Assassinations of both Trump and Pence would be the only possibility. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/8 "2017-01-16T23:36:58Z")
Zero chance. I rounded to the nearest integer. ---
**Author:** ![snoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@snoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snoe)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2017, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/9 "2017-01-16T23:49:22Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I read the title and voted yes, mostly based on the “any chance” phrase, but after reading the entire OP, I wish I could change my vote to “no”. You missed a step betwee “Democrats sweep into power and begin simultaneous impeachment proceedings against Trump and Pence.” and “The newly elected Democratic speaker then becomes POTUS.” Hint: It involves the Senate, and it isn’t likely to happen in 2019 or 2020. Similar scenario - voted before reading the full OP. I read the question as “could a Democrat be elected Speaker after the 2018 elections,” not “could a Democrat ascend to the Presidency from the Speakership.” So that’s another yes that should be a no 😉 Suggestion: edit the post title to say “take over **the Presidency** ” or some such. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/10 "2017-01-17T01:20:09Z")
Modified title to reflect actual question in OP. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/11 "2017-01-17T01:37:47Z")
I voted ‘Yes’ on the poll question as stated at the top of the poll. (Not the way to bet, but certainly possible.) I would have voted ‘No’ on the full OP scenario. Not to mention, while any case for impeaching G.W. Bush would have had a hard time _excluding_ Darth Cheney, there’s hardly any evidence that the same will be true of Trump/Pence. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/12 "2017-01-17T03:11:47Z")
I know the 2018 landscape is brutal for the Democrats, but what about 2020? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/13 "2017-01-17T03:15:57Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I know the 2018 landscape is brutal for the Democrats, but what about 2020? Great for Democrats. 22 Republican and 11 Democrat Senate seats up for election. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/14 "2017-01-17T03:20:14Z")
This is absolute wishful thinking. I’ve a better chance of becoming the world’s first trillionaire. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/15 "2017-01-17T04:25:05Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I know the 2018 landscape is brutal for the Democrats, but what about 2020? > [@Velocity](#): > > Great for Democrats. > > 22 Republican and 11 Democrat Senate seats up for election. Still not ‘great’ IMHO. 20 of those 22 Republican seats are in states won by Trump, and the only two in blue states were only narrowly blue (Maine and Colorado). On the other hand, 10 of the 11 Democrat seats are in states won by Hillary. The only exception is Michigan. It’s probably worth mentioning that an additional two are in very-narrowly-won-by-Hillary states: New Hampshire and Minnesota. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/16 "2017-01-17T05:27:49Z")
The Democrats have a realistic chance of winning the House in 2018. They need 24 seats which is less than their gains in 2006 for example. Trump is already as unpopular as Bush was in 2006 and much of the Republican agenda is also unpopular. If Trump becomes deeply unpopular, say his approval falls below 30%, and evidence of serious wrongdoing is uncovered, it is possible that he could be impeached. However there is no chance of a Democrat becoming President in that scenario; it would be Pence or some other Republican VP if for some reason Pence is gone. To impeach Trump, you would need a bunch of Republican senators. In a scenario where Trump has become completely toxic, it may well be in their political interest to remove him for Pence, who they probably prefer anyway, but they would never do it for a Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/17 "2017-01-17T12:45:03Z")
Nope. There is a small chance that the Democrats will win both houses of congress in 2018. There’s also a chance Trump will be impeached or resign. But, even in the 1972-1974 period when both Agnew and Nixon resigned, there was no chance of the Democratic Speaker of the House, Carl Albert, becoming president. Pence holds reprehensible views, but I don’t think there’s any serious scandal he’s hiding. If Trump resigns or is impeached, then Pence would become president and appoint a Republican vice president. ---
**Author:** ![quimper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7c8e57/32.png) [@quimper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/quimper)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/18 "2017-01-17T15:21:42Z")
Not a chance in hell. Turnout will be 10-15 million lower from the already dismal 2016 turnout. Dems will be playing defense on 23 out of the 33 senate seats (7 first termers, 16 incumbents), and will be lucky to keep 40 seats total after the dust settles. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/19 "2017-01-17T20:31:53Z")
Leaving aside the fact that Pence hasn’t done, and doesn’t seem likely to do, anything that would get him impeached, how would simultaneous impeachment even work, logistically? One of them would surely have to leave office first, at which point the other one would be the president, and would be able to nominate a new VP. I could maaaybe see a Democratic Speaker becoming president if Trump is impeached and convicted / forced to resign, and then Pence suddenly dies before he can confirm his VP pick, but not otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2017, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335/20 "2017-01-17T21:43:25Z")
Velocity pretty much nailed it. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-chance-for-a-democratic-speaker-house-pres-after-a-2018-dem-mid-term-sweep/777335.md?page=2)