# Any evidence that certain countries or regions are inflating their COVID stats? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 21, 2020, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236 "2020-05-21T12:52:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jim\_Peebles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Jim\_Peebles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jim_Peebles)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/21 "2020-05-28T23:19:07Z")
Dr. Deborah Birx Whitehouse Covid-19 Task Force Coordinator: “So, I think in this country we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality. And I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks. Prior to that when there wasn’t testing in January and February that’s a very different situation and unknown. There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.” [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/08/dr\_birx\_unlike\_some\_countries\_if\_someone\_dies\_with\_covid-19\_we\_are\_counting\_that\_as\_a\_covid-19\_death.html](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/08/dr_birx_unlike_some_countries_if_someone_dies_with_covid-19_we_are_counting_that_as_a_covid-19_death.html) ---
**Author:** ![74westy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/74westy/32/3950_2.png) [@74westy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/74westy)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/22 "2020-05-29T00:41:58Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > Dr. Deborah Birx Whitehouse Covid-19 Task Force Coordinator: > “So, I think in this country we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality. And I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks. Prior to that when there wasn’t testing in January and February that’s a very different situation and unknown. > There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.” > [Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death" | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/08/dr_birx_unlike_some_countries_if_someone_dies_with_covid-19_we_are_counting_that_as_a_covid-19_death.html) That quote is discussed [here](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/08/tucker-carlsons-brit-humes-faulty-theories-about-coronavirus-deaths-being-exaggerated/). > [@Washintong Post](#): > > Add another doctor who has now rejected this theory: Birx. She was asked about it at Wednesday’s briefing and referenced the point above about how the coronavirus exacerbates existing conditions. > > “Those individuals will have an underlying condition, but that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it’s related to a covid infection,” Birx said. “In fact, it’s the opposite.” ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/23 "2020-05-29T00:46:40Z")
This video from John Campbell [Global situation today - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avkqwSffYLo) talks about the situation in Russia, and paints a very grim picture. But not one that is inconsistent with the OP. He discusses deaths, not diagnosed infections. The basic issue is that there appears to be significant pressure and structural issues suppressing reporting deaths as due to Covid-19. So the CFR looks extremely low. Putin has even been suggesting that Russian medicine is much superior and accounts for this low CFR. Cynically one could observe that if there is a deliberate intent to make the impression in the populace that the infection numbers are inflated, yet the published death numbers are low, the population will believe that the situation is not serious. Which is one tactic for making a government look good. Indeed it is a brilliant way of exploiting a natural tendency in the populace to look for conspiracies. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/24 "2020-05-29T01:02:27Z")
> [@Jim\_Peebles](#): > > Dr. Deborah Birx Whitehouse Covid-19 Task Force Coordinator: > “So, I think in this country we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality. And I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks. Prior to that when there wasn’t testing in January and February that’s a very different situation and unknown. > There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.” > [Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death" | Video | RealClearPolitics](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/08/dr_birx_unlike_some_countries_if_someone_dies_with_covid-19_we_are_counting_that_as_a_covid-19_death.html) In context it sounds like Dr. Blix is concerned about the ways deaths are counted, but not a big concern about that those items are inflating the numbers, if anything a later report did find even Fauci agreeing that the numbers are not inflated, but that under counts are still more likely. > **[Trump Suggests Virus Death Count Is Inflated. Most Experts Doubt It...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-death-toll.html)** > > Senior White House and health officials have sought new ways to find the extent of infections and deaths, questioning whether official counts are inflating the toll of the virus. > [@](#): > > Epidemiologists are also rethinking their tabulations, but not in ways the White House would like. They have increasingly compared recent totals of deaths from all causes, which provide a more complete picture of the pandemic’s impact than tracking only deaths of people with confirmed diagnoses. Fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths are called “excess deaths.” A study of mortality statistics in New York City showed more than 24,000 excess deaths from March 11 to May 2. > > Mr. Trump is hardly the only politician uncomfortable with the official coronavirus counts. Jared Polis, Colorado’s liberal Democratic governor, said on “Fox News Sunday” that “the C.D.C. criteria include anybody who has died with Covid-19, but what the people of Colorado and the people of the country want to know is how many people died of Covid-19.” > > Last Friday, Colorado’s health department revised its death toll downward, forming two categories to account for what it said were patients who had Covid-19 but died from other causes. > > Trying to separate the cause of death in coronavirus-infected patients is “ludicrous,” said Dr. Alicia Skarimbas, a physician in Bergen County, N.J., who has treated around 75 Covid-19 patients. > > “I have yet to have anyone infected with Covid die from anything else,” she said. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/25 "2020-05-29T03:57:52Z")
> [@Hermitian](#): > > If I am understanding you correctly, you are saying that the death count of COVID and the excess deaths are not matching up. However, if you go to the CDC excess deaths site ([https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess\_deaths.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)), it has a downloadable CSV data file that lists the excess death in the US as of 9 May. It lists 2020 excess deaths lower bound as 84,891 and the upper bound as 113,139. > > This is higher than the official death count as of 9 May (~80K). > > So that says to me that the COVID deaths are likely being under-reported or we have more COVID-fear related deaths because of people afraid to get other health treatments. I’ve been downloading the raw data every week, and one thing I have to point out is that many of the states are way behind in reporting. For example, as of last week, Connecticut had just started reporting February deaths, and even those were incomplete. That said, in Massachusetts the excess “all causes” deaths excess value over the last six years’ average almost exactly matches the Covid deaths reported by the state. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/26 "2020-05-29T04:09:15Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > I’ve been downloading the raw data every week, and one thing I have to point out is that many of the states are way behind in reporting. For example, as of last week, Connecticut had just started reporting February deaths, and even those were incomplete. That said, in Massachusetts the excess “all causes” deaths excess value over the last six years’ average almost exactly matches the Covid deaths reported by the state. Does this mean that CT is backed up three whole months, or that they’ve reported on March forward and are now backfilling February? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/27 "2020-05-29T06:11:30Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > Fox News interviewed a GOP Minnesota state senator … > … And of course, QAnon and InfoWars were all over this… But what does Ann Coulter say? Bozo the Clown? Have we asked the Kremlin or North Korea’s intelligence service what they think? > [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > An interesting statistic to look at is deaths from all causes. The U.S. has close to 1,000,000 deaths this year from all causes. 2% higher than normal yet covid cases are listed at 100,000 which would put it at 10% above normal. My first thought is that a lot of folks dying from covid were dying anyway just a week or two sooner. I wonder how many cases where covid good rightfully be listed as a contributing cause are listed as covid deaths. Many deaths are reported _weeks_ late. > [@](#): > > Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (\<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred > [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > [https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) Arithmetic to the rescue! Here’s data from the linked table, with two columns added by me. 1st column is week-ending date, 2nd covid-9 deaths, 3rd total deaths, 4th “percent of expected deaths”, 5th expected deaths (deduced from columns #3 and #4), 6th excess deaths (column #3 minus #5). (You may need to disable Sultanbugs in the lower-left of the page to view this table.) ```auto Total Deaths 81372 971879 102 952823 19056 2/1/2020 0 57627 97 59409 -1782 2/8/2020 1 58278 98 59467 -1189 2/15/2020 0 57616 98 58792 -1176 2/22/2020 2 57688 99 58277 -583 2/29/2020 5 58020 101 57446 574 3/7/2020 32 57793 100 57793 0 3/14/2020 51 56572 99 57143 -571 3/21/2020 539 57062 101 56497 565 3/28/2020 2997 60766 109 55749 5017 4/4/2020 9345 68936 124 55594 13342 4/11/2020 15320 74510 135 55193 19317 4/18/2020 15739 71120 132 53879 17241 4/25/2020 13146 66216 123 53834 12382 5/2/2020 10202 59920 112 53500 6420 ``` Deaths were lower than expected in February. Was the winter mild? _Or is this just due to lateness in reporting deaths?_ (The same lateness renders the 1st row of the table almost useless.) For 4/4/2020 there were 9k covid deaths and 13k excess deaths; for 4/11/2020 15k and 19k. _ **If anything, the data suggest that there were thousands of deaths each week in the April peak that were due to covid-19 but not reported as such.** _ (Moreover, the crisis may have exacerbated the lateness of reporting deaths unascribed to covid-19.) ---
**Author:** ![Falchion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a88e57/32.png) [@Falchion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Falchion)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/28 "2020-05-29T16:59:26Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > Fox News interviewed a GOP Minnesota state senator named Scott Jensen. Jensen claimed Medicare paid hospitals $13,000 for each patient listed as having COVID and $39,000 for each one put on a ventilator. The interview launched a lot of memes, and people wanting desperately to believe this whole COVID thing is over-hyped or a hoax latched onto it. From Snopes: I don’t know anything about the specific numbers, but it is (of course) true that hospitals get paid more for COVID patients than similarly situated non-COVID patients. There is a 20% Medicare reimbursement bump for COVID cases under the CARES Act and (perhaps more importantly) HHS is providing payment (at the higher Medicare rates) for treatment of uninsured patients with a COVID diagnosis. For example, from [USAToday’s Fact Check of Jensen’s claim](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/): > [@](#): > > We rate the claim that hospitals get paid more if patients are listed as COVID-19 and on ventilators as TRUE. > > Hospitals and doctors do get paid more for Medicare patients diagnosed with COVID-19 or if it’s considered presumed they have COVID-19 absent a laboratory-confirmed test, and three times more if the patients are placed on a ventilator to cover the cost of care and loss of business resulting from a shift in focus to treat COVID-19 cases. And [from Factcheck.org](https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/): > [@](#): > > It is true, however, that the government will pay more to hospitals for COVID-19 cases in two senses: By paying an additional 20% on top of traditional Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients during the public health emergency, and by reimbursing hospitals for treating the uninsured patients with the disease (at that enhanced Medicare rate). I don’t know if this is happening. (Although, of course, upcoding is a common type of health care fraud/“mistake”). But, as far as I can tell, Jensen’s factual claim appears to be correct. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2020, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/29 "2020-06-03T05:58:01Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Does this mean that CT is backed up three whole months, or that they’ve reported on March forward and are now backfilling February? It means they are backed up three whole months. And to be clear, I don’t mean backed up on coronavirus reporting, I mean backed up on reporting on any kind of deaths to the CDC. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/31 "2021-08-14T15:49:49Z")
> [@headcasey](#): > > On our govenments website and the office of national statistics less than 600 people with no other health problems have died with covid In the entire UK! Can we see those cites, please? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/33 "2021-08-14T16:11:05Z")
Those stats are for February 2020 to October 2020. Also from your cite: “From March to June 2020, there were 4,476 deaths involving COVID-19 with no pre-existing conditions in England and Wales.” ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/34 "2021-08-14T16:20:11Z")
> [@headcasey](#): > > (and the stipulation is all people that have a possitve test and die for any reason even being run over by a car are counted as a covid death. Really?? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/36 "2021-08-14T16:31:48Z")
> [@headcasey](#): > > Your statement is a ‘‘devil’s advocate’’ statement to detract from the fact that I am right. You misquoted statistics, and that proves you right? Tell me-What exactly would it take to prove you _wrong?_ ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/38 "2021-08-14T16:34:02Z")
> [@headcasey](#): > > So do you want me to prove it? Well…Yeah?? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/39 "2021-08-14T16:37:19Z")
> [@headcasey](#): > > If I prove this to you beyond a doubt will you promise to do some acctual reaserch and see what’s really going on?? Instead of trusting the govenment and the main stream media?? 1. If you have proven it beyond a reasonable doubt, why would I then need to do any “acctual reaserch”? 2. There is that vague term “main stream media”-What news media do _you_ trust? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/41 "2021-08-14T16:46:01Z")
Pro-tip: Looking a some crackpot conspiracy theory youtube videos, and being apparently unable to understand basic numbers does not constitute “research” “They” are most decidedly NOT " putting covid (sic) on all death certificates in the UK within 28 days of having a possitve (sic) test,". This is complete, unadulterated bullshit that you are simply repeating from a bullshit source. Many folks here have also “been around the block and seen a thing or two”. Your opinion of yourself seems to be overly high. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/42 "2021-08-14T16:49:33Z")
From your source: "There are 2 definitions of a death in a person with COVID-19 in England, one broader measure and one measure reflecting current trends: “1) A death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and either died within 60 days of the first specimen date or died more than 60 days after the first specimen date, only if COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate 2) A death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date” Nothing in there about a previous “no time limit”, and nothing in there about requiring Covid-19 to be on the death certificate. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/43 "2021-08-14T17:18:27Z")
> [@Mama\_Zappa](#): > > Then went onto hysterical ranting about her mother’s recent death (due to a stroke) and how she was going to take legal action if her mother got a COVID diagnosis on her death certificate. As it happens, her mother DID test positive for it, but that was likely a contributing factor at most. In most countries (I think including the US), there is a primary cause of death listed on a death certificate and N secondary causes. It would be absolutely appropriate and normal to mention covid as a secondary cause of death, being as it is fatal to a significant proportion of the demographic that presumably her mother belongs to. --------------------------------------------------------------- Regarding the OP, I would be very skeptical until we see hard evidence. I’ve worked in hospitals in the UK and China, and IME it’s not very plausible. Screwing with patients’ diagnoses would be considered unthinkable and anyway is many layers removed from the people making decisions about funding. Yes there are book-keeping tricks that can be utilized to try to tease out more funding, but this isn’t one of them. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2021, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236/44 "2021-08-14T20:18:33Z")
Yeah if anything, I would think that Putin is encouraging hospitals and health officials to deflate the numbers. A pandemic is the kind of national crisis that could lead to an uprising. Not saying it will, just saying it could (see Brazil v Bolsonaro) if it is ignored. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-evidence-that-certain-countries-or-regions-are-inflating-their-covid-stats/854236.md?page=1)