# Any good news re: COVID-19?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610>\
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone\
**Tags:** covid-quarantine\
**Created:** [March 16, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610 "2020-03-16T22:47:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 7

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**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/121 "2020-03-27T18:09:51Z")

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We are flattening the curve.

America is 40% less mobile than usual and this is reducing the spread of the virus.  
So it looks like mitigation efforts are making a difference.

This is good news.  
If we don’t keep it up, bad news is just around the corner.

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**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/122 "2020-03-28T05:44:10Z")

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Now that India has been shut down, it seems that the number of spam calls saying I’m to be arrested for Social Security fraud or something has gone way down.

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**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/123 "2020-03-28T16:57:22Z")

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Should be very helpful if it works as promised, and especially if it can be made widely available:

> **[FDA clears test to detect coronavirus in 5 minutes](https://www.mytwintiers.com/health/coronavirus/fda-clears-test-to-detect-coronavirus-in-5-minutes/)**
>
> WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has cleared a new rapid test from Abbott Laboratories, which the company says can detect the coronavirus in about 5 minutes. Medical device m…

> [@](#):
>
> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has cleared a new rapid test from Abbott Laboratories, which the company says can detect the coronavirus in about 5 minutes.
> 
> Medical device maker Abbott announced the emergency clearance of its cartridge-based test in a release Friday night. The company says that its test delivers a negative result in 13 minutes when the virus is not detected.[. . .]
> 
> The company said it would launch the test next week to select health care facilities that deliver urgent care.

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/124 "2020-03-28T21:25:55Z")

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> [@Dr\_Paprika](#):
>
> Hospitals are still low on supplies: now Canada is being criticized for donating 16 tons of PPE to China in February and destroying its Ontario mask stockpile. These things happen, I guess, but China needs to release political prisoners pronto.

But China has now returned the favour: “China donates thousands of medical masks, personal protective equipment to Canada”

> **[China donates thousands of medical masks, personal protective equipment to...](https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/politics/2020/3/28/1_4872541.html)**
>
> China has donated thousands of medical supplies to Canada to aid in the fight against the COVID-19, according to the Chinese Embassy in Ottawa.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/125 "2020-03-28T22:10:22Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Like other major U.S. cities, Chicago has seen a dip in crime with the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting virtually every aspect of the country’s way of life.
> 
> Despite beginning 2020 with crime spikes, particularly related to gun violence, Chicago saw a sudden single-week drop of nearly 20% in major crimes in mid-March, records show. That was just as much activity in Chicago was slowing.

> **[Chicago joins New York, Los Angeles with drops in crime as coronavirus and...](https://www.chicagotribune.com/2020/03/27/chicago-joins-new-york-los-angeles-with-drops-in-crime-as-coronavirus-and-shelter-order-take-hold/)**
>
> Like other major U.S. cities, Chicago has seen a dip in crime with the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting virtually every aspect of the country’s way of life. Despite beginning 2020 with crime spik…

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**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/126 "2020-03-28T23:02:18Z")

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> [@psychobunny](#):
>
> I like to try to list countries with no cases at all. So far, I have  
> Burundi  
> Vanuatu  
> Solomon Islands

North Korea has no reported cases.

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**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/127 "2020-03-28T23:08:16Z")

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> [@russian\_heel](#):
>
> Singapore has it and I THINK South Korea. I’d love to know this.  
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

South Korea is heading towards 10,000 cases so far.  
link to[CoronaVirus Dashboard](https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=IwAR10-CtnL-7x8Y_Rjocmk_5U00eDozhjxWP-8uZr54cOd2CAXUBb3MQJ1M4)

This site was apparently the brainchild of a high school student. It’s been up since there were only a few hundred cases in the US.

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**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2020, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/128 "2020-03-28T23:09:50Z")

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My contribution of good news: mass shootings are WAY down.

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**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\
**Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/129 "2020-03-29T00:06:54Z")

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> [@joebuck20](#):
>
> North Korea has no reported cases.

It is generally agree that North Korea has several unreported cases.

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**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\
**Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/130 "2020-03-29T00:24:11Z")

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> [@Ulfreida](#):
>
> My contribution of good news: mass shootings are WAY down.

Several death rates are down:  
[ul]  
[li]flu and other non-Covid communicable diseases[/li][li]auto accidents[/li][li]air pollution[/li][/ul]

I may have missed some. Of course, deaths due to domestic violence are probably up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the net effect of the virus and all the distancing and quarantining is a reduced overall death rate.

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**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\
**Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/131 "2020-03-29T00:41:11Z")

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[Quarantine Safari](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/quarantine-safari-when-the-nilgai-goes-to-the-mall/articleshow/74868888.cms)

> [@](#):
>
> Conservation biologist Latika Nath said that it was a hearteening sign that pollution levels in the air and water had come down enough for rare birds and animals can be seen in urban habitats. . . .
> 
> Since birders cannot step out, most of them document birds from their balconies or compounds

But my favorite in the thread remains [#113](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22212439&postcount=113).

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**Author:** ![Clarisse\_McClellan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Clarisse\_McClellan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clarisse_McClellan)\
**Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/132 "2020-03-29T02:47:40Z")

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[101 year old man beats the virus](https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/03/27/the-miraculous-mr-p-101-year-old-italian-man-beats-coronavirus/#143a12c548bc)

As did a 103 year old woman and 97 year old woman.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [March 29, 2020, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/133 "2020-03-29T17:14:11Z")

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> [@Ulfreida](#):
>
> South Korea is heading towards 10,000 cases so far.  
> link to[CoronaVirus Dashboard](https://ncov2019.live/data?fbclid=IwAR10-CtnL-7x8Y_Rjocmk_5U00eDozhjxWP-8uZr54cOd2CAXUBb3MQJ1M4)
> 
> This site was apparently the brainchild of a high school student. It’s been up since there were only a few hundred cases in the US.

Impressive for a HS student.

I’ve been using [Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). that website has improved over time. They recently added deaths per million which is something I was calculating on a spreadsheet.

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**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\
**Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/134 "2020-03-30T04:45:37Z")

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Venice, which was polluted and crowded to the point of damage, is now not polluted and crowded: the canals are so clear you can see fish!

Repeated advice to **DON’T TOUCH YOUR FACE!** is going to see a dramatic drop in teenage acne (if they pay any attention.)

And on a purely personal note 🙂 In my city, women normally expect and assert right-of-way on the footpaths. But now they’re walking single file, and even stepping off onto the grass for blokes like me to go past 🙂

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**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/135 "2020-03-31T15:52:36Z")

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With everyone here on mandatory telework, departments which had been reluctant to offer week-long teleworking or any at all will likely realize that their fears of losing productivity weren’t valid.

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**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/136 "2020-03-31T16:27:49Z")

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Based on the daily increase numbers - which have flattened off - I think it’s likely that we have at least caught up with our testing or, even possibly, started to see some effectiveness to shelter-at-home.

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**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/137 "2020-03-31T16:58:43Z")

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My 14 year old son, who loves math and statistics, pointed me to this site:

> **[COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)**
>
> Daily and weekly updated statistics tracking the number of COVID-19 cases, recovered, and deaths. Historical data with cumulative charts, graphs, and updates.

He pointed out if you go to the US section here:

> **[United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)**
>
> United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

…and scroll down to the chart called “Daily New Cases in the United States” you can see that we’re about at the top of the bell curve, so we should be about halfway out of the woods. (NOTE: that’s “Daily New Cases”, not “Total Coronavirus Cases”, which shows no sign of leveling off yet.)

Comparing it to China’s “Daily New Cases”, you can see the complete bell curve as they got through their outbreak (with a couple spikes where they instituted mass testing on a couple different days well into the outbreak).

Italy’s “Daily New Cases” bell curve is interesting-- it’s a double bell curve, on the downslope for the second time. I’m not sure, but I’m guessing they thought they were almost through it and let their guard down at one point. So we hopefully won’t do the same.

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**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/138 "2020-03-31T18:17:43Z")

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> [@solost](#):
>
> …and scroll down to the chart called “Daily New Cases in the United States” you can see that we’re about at the top of the bell curve, so we should be about halfway out of the woods. (NOTE: that’s “Daily New Cases”, not “Total Coronavirus Cases”, which shows no sign of leveling off yet.)

I know that this is supposed to be “good news” but, in the interest of correctness, it should be pointed out that:

1. It’s not a bell curve, the expected shape is a sharp rise followed by a very gentle slope back down.
2. Resumption of normal activities - because things have leveled off - could cause new growth spikes. China, for example, should expect to see a massive wave of infections if they relieve any restrictions, unless they can either cure the disease or somehow ensure that 100% of the people who have it are identified, have fully recovered, and that no human being enters the nation from an outside country until a cure for Covid-19 is discovered.

It’s highly unlikely that China’s current infection and death rates are the levels that they say they are. I wouldn’t be surprised if the country has already re-spiked in a few regions a few times.

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**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/139 "2020-03-31T18:51:23Z")

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> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> I know that this is supposed to be “good news” but, in the interest of correctness, it should be pointed out that:
> 
> 1. It’s not a bell curve, the expected shape is a sharp rise followed by a very gentle slope back down.
> 2. Resumption of normal activities - because things have leveled off - could cause new growth spikes. China, for example, should expect to see a massive wave of infections if they relieve any restrictions, unless they can either cure the disease or somehow ensure that 100% of the people who have it are identified, have fully recovered, and that no human being enters the nation from an outside country until a cure for Covid-19 is discovered.
> 
> It’s highly unlikely that China’s current infection and death rates are the levels that they say they are. I wouldn’t be surprised if the country has already re-spiked in a few regions a few times.

Well, China and South Korea’s “Daily New Cases” charts appear to be bell curves, if you believe their data:

> **[China COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/)**
>
> China Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

> **[South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/)**
>
> South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

Although S. Korea is getting a steady recurring lower level of new cases after their initial bell-curve style spike and downturn.

And bell curve or otherwise, the main point is the steep up-curve of new cases appears to be leveling off in the US.

And I did point out that letting our guard down could reverse that trend, as the double-curve of Italy’s “Daily New Cases” chart seems to show:

> **[Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/)**
>
> Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

(again, scroll down each link a bit to see the “Daily New Cases” charts for each country)

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**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-good-news-re-covid-19/849610/140 "2020-03-31T21:10:11Z")

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There’s a company out there that makes Internet-connected thermometers so they are getting a lot of data on random people’s temperatures and posting it online. They have a good track record in seeing flu outbreaks ahead of the CDC.

The [news](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-restrictions-fevers.html) is good. Outside of a couple areas they are seeing a flattening of the number of people with fevers.

Caveats: There’s no reliability as to the same people taking their temps repeatedly. (E.g., some people might go into denial mode and not take their temp when they feel symptoms.) Also the demo is likely skewed heavily towards younger people who might be asymptomatic, etc.

Still, I like it. Except for S. Colorado being an exception. Have several relatives in and near that area.

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