# Any presidential polls weighted for electoral vote? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 21, 2004, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319 "2004-09-21T13:31:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![FatBaldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ecd19e/32.png) [@FatBaldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FatBaldGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/1 "2004-09-21T13:31:27Z")
We are always hearing on the news about the results of the latest opinion polls for the presidential race, but every poll seems to be simply a nationwide percentage of voters favoring Bush or Kerry. Do any of the major polling organizations correlate this data by state to show what the electoral college results would be if all these people voted the way they said? Seems to me this would be of interest to the public, and not very difficult to extrapolate from the raw polling data. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/2 "2004-09-21T13:34:03Z")
> [@Fat Bald Guy](#): > > We are always hearing on the news about the results of the latest opinion polls for the presidential race, but every poll seems to be simply a nationwide percentage of voters favoring Bush or Kerry. > > Do any of the major polling organizations correlate this data by state to show what the electoral college results would be if all these people voted the way they said? Seems to me this would be of interest to the public, and not very difficult to extrapolate from the raw polling data. Try [http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) , they average all of the state-by-state polls and project the electoral vote. Seems comprehensive. ---
**Author:** ![SilentButDeftly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/0ea827/32.png) [@SilentButDeftly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SilentButDeftly)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/3 "2004-09-21T13:57:47Z")
Slate also has one: [http://www.slate.com/id/2106527/](http://www.slate.com/id/2106527/) ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/4 "2004-09-21T14:14:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Try [http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) , they average all of the state-by-state polls and project the electoral vote. Seems comprehensive. That site is making me seasick. One day it’s Bush up by 120 EVs, next day it’s Kerry by 98, and on and on… :dubious: But I take some comfort in knowing that Strategic Vision’s poll ([which always polls better for Bush](http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/09/looking-at-strategic-vision.html)) of Florida shows the race as dead even within the MOE. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/5 "2004-09-21T14:40:27Z")
The Wall Street Journal has Zogby doing one, also, but they only update it a couple times per month. (They did just update it, though). Zogby was one of only two pollsters that correctly predicted Gore winning the popular vote in '00. [http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html](http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html) ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/6 "2004-09-21T14:44:30Z")
> [@Patty O'Furniture](#): > > That site is making me seasick. One day it’s Bush up by 120 EVs, next day it’s Kerry by 98, and on and on… :dubious: It just means it’s going to come down to whoever gets the last at-bat. **AHunter3** , who is winning in that Zogby poll? ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2004, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-presidential-polls-weighted-for-electoral-vote/265319/7 "2004-09-21T21:54:42Z")
> [@](#): > > **AHunter3** , who is winning in that Zogby poll You have to scroll down the bottom of that little frame/portal thingie under the map: **Zobgy** : > [@](#): > > Presuming that all the [battleground, “swing”]states — including the 33 electoral votes from the tight Florida and Arkansas races — go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states and the District of Columbia go as they did in the 2000 election Mr Kerry w9oudl get 297 electoral votes and Mr Bush would get 241.