# Any realistic chance that that the missing plane landed safely & all the passengers are still alive? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 16, 2014, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819 "2014-03-16T04:31:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![tapu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@tapu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tapu)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/81 "2014-03-17T11:54:06Z")
> [@CatherineZeta](#): > > People are just so ignorant about foreign countries. I just got off the phone with my mom and she was surprised that I’m able to communicate with my friend who teaches in South Korea via Facebook. She also made a dumb comment about “everything being skinny in Korea” because my friend adopted a cat that looks like my cat except skinnier. South Korea is a modern first world country! They have food and the internet there! I can’t believe my mom wouldn’t know that. \ Not to defend your ignorant mother, but most of the world population has absolutely no concept of the scope of the world. Not even, say, of Australia. ---
**Author:** ![tapu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@tapu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tapu)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/82 "2014-03-17T12:02:35Z")
I posted this link yesterday so others could see the “dot map” showing possible landing strips for a 777. The link has solid updates on the hunt for the flight in general, and updates every 90 seconds. It also includes graphs and other input I haven’t seen gathered elsewhere. Here it is again: [Live Updates on MH370–The Telegraph, U.K.](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10700892/Malaysian-Airlines-MH370-live.html) ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/83 "2014-03-17T12:08:01Z")
> [@Alley\_Dweller](#): > > At 40,000 feet, it’s not highly probable that they can make contact with a cell phone antenna. And there are vast stretches of land and sea that are not covered by cellular service. To land, the plane has to come down. Somewhere between 40,000 ft and zero, if there was any cellphone tower anywhere in range, and if the passengers were alive, I would expect someone to try to call. Maybe there are remote islands with long runways, no control towers, no inhabitants and no cellphone sites for 50 miles, but it’s more likely that the plane crashed than landed. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/84 "2014-03-17T12:15:34Z")
> [@CatherineZeta](#): > > Do you think the US would also foot the bill considering that there were US citizens on board? Nope. Only three Americans were on board and that’s slightly below the “give a shit” limit for American deaths outside of the US. Also, none were blonde females, so that reduces the level of scrutiny even further.😃 It it were an American-based carrier, then the US Navy would be a little proactive than it is. It’s not, so they are not. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/85 "2014-03-17T12:17:44Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Somewhere between 40,000 ft and zero, if there was any cellphone tower anywhere in range, and if the passengers were alive, I would expect someone to try to call. _If_ it landed, which is a stretch, would the passengers necessarily know anything was wrong until the end? Say one of the pilots suddenly pulled out a club and brained the other, nobody behind the cockpit door would necessarily notice anything was wrong, would they? It was night so the windows wouldn’t help, and if the map in the entertainment system can be disabled, the passengers would be essentially blind to their location. In that (far-fetched) scenario, maybe the passengers wouldn’t notice anything was seriously wrong until the door opened and the death squad came in and started liquidating the witnesses. Of course, people try to make calls even from normal flights… ---
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/86 "2014-03-17T12:21:18Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > _If_ it landed, which is a stretch, would the passengers necessarily know anything was wrong until the end? Say one of the pilots suddenly pulled out a club and brained the other, nobody behind the cockpit door would necessarily notice anything was wrong, would they? It was night so the windows wouldn’t help, and if the map in the entertainment system can be disabled, the passengers would be essentially blind to their location. > > In that (far-fetched) scenario, maybe the passengers wouldn’t notice anything was seriously wrong until the door opened and the death squad came in and started liquidating the witnesses. > > Of course, people try to make calls even from normal flights… Anyway for an aircraft to jam the pesky cellphone signals? Given that airlines keep bleating about cellphones interfering with comm/nav systems, maybe the pilots could pull a switch a block those frequencies? ---
**Author:** ![tapu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@tapu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tapu)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/87 "2014-03-17T12:23:54Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > To land, the plane has to come down. Somewhere between 40,000 ft and zero, if there was any cellphone tower anywhere in range, and if the passengers were alive, I would expect someone to try to call. Maybe there are remote islands with long runways, no control towers, no inhabitants and no cellphone sites for 50 miles, but it’s more likely that the plane crashed than landed. I would agree that sea crash is more likely than landing or even land crash. (Though again, I have no credentials to back that opinion–nothing more than my inadequate understanding of all I’m reading.) That said, I’d think they could’ve divested all passengers of their cellphones upon takeover. To accomplish this, I’d have them systematically strip and surrender all clothes and possessions and then direct them back to different seats. Just saying that what you’re suggesting about cell phone calls might be thwarted. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/88 "2014-03-17T12:26:16Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > _If_ it landed, which is a stretch, would the passengers necessarily know anything was wrong until the end? Say one of the pilots suddenly pulled out a club and brained the other, nobody behind the cockpit door would necessarily notice anything was wrong, would they? It was night so the windows wouldn’t help, and if the map in the entertainment system can be disabled, the passengers would be essentially blind to their location. > > In that (far-fetched) scenario, maybe the passengers wouldn’t notice anything was seriously wrong until the door opened and the death squad came in and started liquidating the witnesses. > > Of course, people try to make calls even from normal flights… Many people look out the windows during flights. Well-lit Chinese cities would appear to be much different than an abandoned airfield in the middle of Nowherestan. Even during the descent, one would expect to see lights of other cities and their lack would probably have caused noticeable disconcertion among the passengers. Also, than maneuvers that the plane made when changing direction would have alerted savvy travelers. People who fly frequently recognize when their aircraft changes direction often by the “feel” they get when it does. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/89 "2014-03-17T12:38:22Z")
I don’t think there is a realistic chance. I think whoever was in the cockpit murdered the passengers in flight. They ascended to 45,000 ft, perhaps to depressurize the cabin and suffocate the passengers. Apparently the cabin oxygen masks only last for some 15 minutes while the cockpit masks last longer. So they wait till the passengers are dead and then descend to avoid radar. Now they don’t have to worry about the passengers (possibly including the real pilot) getting in their way. ---
**Author:** ![Martini\_Enfield](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/martini_enfield/32/11123_2.png) [@Martini\_Enfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martini_Enfield)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/90 "2014-03-17T12:50:08Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Sorry, but I had a double take on that archaic term. Aeroplane? Are we living in the earliest part of the 20th century? 🙂 You are being facetious, right? “Aeroplane” is the British/Australian/New Zealand term for, well, fixed-wing powered aircraft. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, even on the SDMB where significant numbers of people were (apparently) completely unaware the UK/Aus/NZ pronounciation of the letter “Z” is “Zed”. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/91 "2014-03-17T13:13:12Z")
> [@tapu](#): > > Aren’t you quite the joker at this hour? > > \ Yeah, feeling weird this morning…I’m a Kelly on St. Patrick’s Day, I’ve been up since 5 AM, it’s 8 AM now, and I’m not even drunk yet! 😉 Richard Pearse, thanks for clarifying/verifying what I said about the “hand-off.” I had forgotten that the “good night” verbal message was directed at the Malaysian and Vietnamese ATC’s; ever since the news about the message was first reported, I have had it stuck in my head (wrongly) that it was a statement said to the _passengers._ ---
**Author:** ![Shakester](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shakester/32/437_2.png) [@Shakester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shakester)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/92 "2014-03-17T14:00:45Z")
> [@Martini\_Enfield](#): > > You are being facetious, right? “Aeroplane” is the British/Australian/New Zealand term for, well, fixed-wing powered aircraft. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, even on the SDMB where significant numbers of people were (apparently) completely unaware the UK/Aus/NZ pronounciation of the letter “Z” is “Zed”. Don’t [misunderestimate](http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/misunderestimate) the American capacity for not just mangling the English language, but for not even being aware that they’re doing it. ---
**Author:** ![tapu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@tapu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tapu)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/93 "2014-03-17T15:19:05Z")
I’m pretty sure the guy was freakin’ joshing. Ya goofs. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/94 "2014-03-17T15:25:15Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > I don’t think this is necessarily true at all. The US Navy no doubt has good sonar but it doesn’t have magical sonar. A plane isn’t that big to begin with and if it hit at speed in deep water it will have broken up. > > . The entire surface of the Earth has been mapped, including the subsurfaces of the ocean. Given the relatively limited areas of planet where the plane **could be** , searching those areas from the air and by using sonar will eventually provide results. The plane didn’t crash into the Marianas Trench; the Indian Ocean while wide and deep isn’t “bottomless.” The plane’s wreckage will be found. Maybe in a few weeks or months Maybe in a few years. Nothing “magical” about that. Just reality. ---
**Author:** ![tapu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@tapu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tapu)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/95 "2014-03-17T15:39:58Z")
Latest update from earlier “live” source given: 14.50 Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban in Afghanistan, who are seeking to oust foreign troops and set up an Islamic state, said the missing plane had nothing to do with them. “It happened outside Afghanistan and you can see that even countries with very advanced equipment and facilities cannot figure out where it went,” he said. “So we also do not have any information as it is an external issue.” A commander with the Pakistani Taliban, a separate entity fighting the Pakistani government, said the fragmented group could only dream about such an operation. “We wish we had an opportunity to hijack such a plane,” he told Reuters by telephone from the lawless North Waziristan region. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/96 "2014-03-17T16:33:20Z")
I’m starting to wonder if the goal might have been to steal the plane. In this scenario, the passengers themselves are just collateral damage, and are probably lying in a mass grave on the outskirts of some remote airfield. It’s all very James Bond-ish, but I can imagine a nation setting up something like this as false-flag attack: Load the plane up with explosives, crash it into their chosen target, and let everyone blame terrorists for it. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/97 "2014-03-17T16:41:07Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > I’m starting to wonder if the goal might have been to steal the plane. In this scenario, the passengers themselves are just collateral damage, and are probably lying in a mass grave on the outskirts of some remote airfield. It’s all very James Bond-ish, but I can imagine a nation setting up something like this as false-flag attack: Load the plane up with explosives, crash it into their chosen target, and let everyone blame terrorists for it. It would probably be better to have stolen a cargo aircraft to do something like this. Fewer passengers to “dispose of” and a greater hauling capacity. Also, the concerns over searching for it would be far less than a plane with passengers. if a cargo plane went down, the disappearance/deaths of 3-5 crew members would be a minor news story, not the major drama that this has become. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/98 "2014-03-17T16:58:57Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > It’s all very James Bond-ish, but I can imagine a nation setting up something like this as false-flag attack: Load the plane up with explosives, crash it into their chosen target, and let everyone blame terrorists for it. But if an organization / government has the resources to pull this off, wouldn’t they be able to just buy a plane? Also, haven’t they used it yet? It would have been much more effective to use it immediately, when everyone still believed it crashed into the sea. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/99 "2014-03-17T19:40:40Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > But if an organization / government has the resources to pull this off, wouldn’t they be able to just buy a plane? Well, no, because eventually some scrap of debris with a serial number would be traced back to the plane that Government X bought, and now everybody knows who actually destroyed CarHenge (In _my_ fictional scenario, the targetting committee didn’t really do their best work). If, on the other hand, the debris is traced to the plane that mysteriously disappeared after likely being hijacked, then suspicion is more likely to fall on Al Queda or PETA or someone rather than on Government X. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/100 "2014-03-17T20:02:11Z")
> [@Quercus](#): > > Well, no, because eventually some scrap of debris with a serial number would be traced back to the plane that Government X bought, and now everybody knows who actually destroyed CarHenge (In _my_ fictional scenario, the targetting committee didn’t really do their best work). > > If, on the other hand, the debris is traced to the plane that mysteriously disappeared after likely being hijacked, then suspicion is more likely to fall on Al Queda or PETA or someone rather than on Government X. That’s my thinking. I’m sure that most of the world’s intelligence agencies have a pretty comprehensive list of which companies are fronts for which other governments. So if they purchase (or build) a plane, it _will_ be traced back to them. Still, the point about stealing a cargo plane is a good one. A cargo plane with a couple of guys on it would be forgotten a heck of a lot quicker than a commercial airliner ever will be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819.md?page=6)