# Any realistic chance that that the missing plane landed safely & all the passengers are still alive? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 16, 2014, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819 "2014-03-16T04:31:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/101 "2014-03-17T20:12:31Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Still, the point about stealing a cargo plane is a good one. A cargo plane with a couple of guys on it would be forgotten a heck of a lot quicker than a commercial airliner ever will be. Getting your people on a passenger plane in order to hijack it is pretty easy if you are a government. How are you going to convince a cargo airline to let your people on one of their planes? Unless, of course, the pilots are the hijackers, in which case getting your people on either type of plane is equally difficult. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/102 "2014-03-17T22:45:28Z")
Forget theft - in addition to a cargo configuration being better for use as a bomb, an empty plane with lots of fuel already aboard would be much more useful. Those things are thirsty, and getting a few hundred tons of Jet A fuel to a strip in the middle of nowhere would likely to also draw attention. A fleet of tankers all loading Jet A and then heading _away_ from nearby large airports would be suspicious. Small airports do not stock enough Jet A to fill an empty 777. Steal a cargo plane being readied for a flight to N. America or Europe, not something full of people and fueled for a short hop to Beijing. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/103 "2014-03-18T02:46:09Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Sorry, but I had a double take on that archaic term. Aeroplane? Are we living in the earliest part of the 20th century? 🙂 That’s still standard British spelling. I see it here in Thailand all the time. I’m afraid this is looking more and more like a case of pilot suicide. BBC mentioned that the deepest parts of the Indian Ocean are something like the third deepest on Earth. Maybe he wanted to minimize the chances of ever being found. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/104 "2014-03-18T13:25:20Z")
> [@Alley\_Dweller](#): > > Getting your people on a passenger plane in order to hijack it is pretty easy if you are a government. How are you going to convince a cargo airline to let your people on one of their planes? > > Unless, of course, the pilots are the hijackers, in which case getting your people on either type of plane is equally difficult. The hijackers could conceal themselves inside the cargo and exit once the plane was in flight. Air cargo scrutiny, especially that from established shippers, is surprisingly lax. They then travel to the cockpit, overwhelm a surprised flight crew and they’d have an aircraft. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/105 "2014-03-18T14:47:10Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > The hijackers could conceal themselves inside the cargo and exit once the plane was in flight. Air cargo scrutiny, especially that from established shippers, is surprisingly lax. They then travel to the cockpit, overwhelm a surprised flight crew and they’d have an aircraft. Which works fine except for the minor detail that (as I understand it) the hold of a cargo plane is not heated and that the cargo may very well be packed in a way that makes it impossible to exit your hiding place, and / or reach the cockpit. Also - as to the idea of jet fuel. Sure, if you have to take enough jet fuel all in a day or two to refuel a 777 then eyebrows may very well be raised. BUT What if a) You are a state level player? Then the amount to refuel is going to be chicken feed b) You have a longer time frame - say 6 months, to refuel the plane? How hard would it be, really, to move a few thousand gallons a day from different places if you are not constrained by time? Also - it’s my understanding, that jet engines aren’t particularly sensitive over what fuel they have - so perhaps “pure” jet fuel is not required - isn’t jet fuel mostly just kerosene anyway? ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/106 "2014-03-18T16:40:36Z")
Since we’re speculating on state-level actors, one possible use of a stolen plane would be to carry a nuclear bomb. If one of the world powers wanted to nuke someone else and get away with it (ie, not start WWIII) then they would absolutely need a delivery vehicle that could not be traced back to them in any conceivable way. Any country capable of planning such an attack would be able to alter the plane’s appearance, and these days they could probably fit the plane to fly by remote control, so finding someone willing to sacrifice themself would be unnecessary. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/107 "2014-03-18T16:46:28Z")
Well…indulging in conspiracy theories… That being the case - If somebody wanted to nuke NK without the rest of the world knowing who - does NK have the capability to intercept such an attempt? Assuming that such a thing did happen - is there anyway to determine where the nuclear device originated from (a-la a Tom Clancy novel)? Alternatively - what if someone was able to get a dose of something like bubonic plague or small pox - just how hard would it be to “weaponise” such a thing, and then use the 777 as a delivery vehicle? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/108 "2014-03-18T16:54:44Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Since we’re speculating on state-level actors, one possible use of a stolen plane would be to carry a nuclear bomb. If one of the world powers wanted to nuke someone else and get away with it (ie, not start WWIII) then they would absolutely need a delivery vehicle that could not be traced back to them in any conceivable way. Any country capable of planning such an attack would be able to alter the plane’s appearance, and these days they could probably fit the plane to fly by remote control, so finding someone willing to sacrifice themself would be unnecessary. Hmmm. And Iran was along the direction of that northern corridor they said was one possible flight path. ---
**Author:** ![ZenBeam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/3ab097/32.png) [@ZenBeam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZenBeam)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/109 "2014-03-18T17:06:55Z")
Radar suggests that the plane [climbed to 45,000 feet](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?hp&_r=0) shortly after is disappeared from civilian radar. Whoever took the plane was being very methodical, so he probably didn’t climb to 45,000 feet just for fun. The only reason I can think to do that would be to incapacitate the passengers. Could the pilot depressurize the plane (while wearing an Oxygen mask himself)? Could he disable the passenger compartment Oxygen masks, either overriding them dropping down, or disabling the flow of Oxygen? For that matter, how long will the Oxygen last if he can’t disable it? People can barely breath at 29,000 feet at the top of Everest, so I’d expect no one would last long at 45,00 feet. With the passengers dead, the pilot could set his waypoints for the autopilot, descend or repressurize the plane, then find and turn off any cell phones that anyone may have had out. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/110 "2014-03-18T19:02:35Z")
> [@ZenBeam](#): > > Radar suggests that the plane [climbed to 45,000 feet](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?hp&_r=0) Could the pilot depressurize the plane (while wearing an Oxygen mask himself)? Could he disable the passenger compartment Oxygen masks, either overriding them dropping down, or disabling the flow of Oxygen? For that matter, how long will the Oxygen last if he can’t disable it? If the pilot/hijackers could do any of these things, it would eliminate the need to have to arrange some sort of “death squad” at the landing site. I suspect the oxygen wouldn’t last more than a few hours max, since the plane’s designers were no doubt assuming that the pilot would head to the nearest available airstrip in the event of a depresurization. ---
**Author:** ![Kiber](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kiber/32/317_2.png) [@Kiber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiber)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/111 "2014-03-18T19:39:14Z")
I’ll defer to **Richard Pearse** and others who have been very helpful in the other MPSIMS thread. But I believe the takeaway was that the passengers O2 system is only designed to last a few minutes - merely long enough for the pilot to fly the plane to a lower altitude where oxygen would not be necessary. The cockpit crew has a separate O2 system which lasts longer. Also, it is possible for the pilot to manually de-pressurize the aircraft, and then stay at a high altitude until the passenger oxygen ran out. The bottom line is that it would by possible for a pilot to manually depressurize the plane and maintain a high altitude until the passengers were all incapacitated / dead, prior to descending to a lower altitude. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/112 "2014-03-18T19:46:49Z")
> [@Kiber](#): > > I’ll defer to **Richard Pearse** and others who have been very helpful in the other MPSIMS thread. But I believe the takeaway was that the passengers O2 system is only designed to last a few minutes - merely long enough for the pilot to fly the plane to a lower altitude where oxygen would not be necessary. The cockpit crew has a separate O2 system which lasts longer. Also, it is possible for the pilot to manually de-pressurize the aircraft, and then stay at a high altitude until the passenger oxygen ran out. > > The bottom line is that it would by possible for a pilot to manually depressurize the plane and maintain a high altitude until the passengers were all incapacitated / dead, prior to descending to a lower altitude. In the other thread, **Richard Pearse** said the passenger’s oxygen only lasts about 10 minutes, long enough for the pilot to drop below 10,000 feet. So, if the pilot/hijacker is able to depressurize the cabin, killing the passengers via oxygen deprevation would actually be pretty easy to do :eek: ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/113 "2014-03-18T20:33:20Z")
> [@ZenBeam](#): > > Radar suggests that the plane [climbed to 45,000 feet](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?hp&_r=0) shortly after is disappeared from civilian radar. Whoever took the plane was being very methodical, so he probably didn’t climb to 45,000 feet just for fun. The only reason I can think to do that would be to incapacitate the passengers. One reason to climb that high would be to attempt to put out a fire. This [Wired article](http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/) speculates they had a fire and wanted to starve the fire of oxygen. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/114 "2014-03-18T20:55:45Z")
> [@control-z](#): > > One reason to climb that high would be to attempt to put out a fire. This [Wired article](http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/) speculates they had a fire and wanted to starve the fire of oxygen. If so, a Mayday call would be likely. If intentional suicide, it would not be. So far, we haven’t heard a Mayday. And turning off the transponder won’t help put out a fire unless the fire caused the transponder failure, and suddenly. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/115 "2014-03-18T22:22:01Z")
I didn’t know a passenger plane could even get to 45,000 feet. If they can, why is normal cruising altitude more like 30,000? Seems like the higher you go, the less air resistance. Does ice build up a lot faster if you go much higher? ---
**Author:** ![Raguleader](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/258eb7/32.png) [@Raguleader](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raguleader)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/116 "2014-03-18T23:02:16Z")
Air gets thinner too, so go too high and your engine performance will suffer. Fighters intended for high-altitude combat in WWII had to have fairly specialized hardware to allow their engines to perform at 20,000 feet, which is why many cheaper but otherwise very good aircraft were sent to the Mediterranean, the Pacific, and Asia, where combat happened at lower altitudes. But yeah, icing is also going to be an issue. IIRC, the temperature drops something like 10 degrees F for every 1000 feet you go up, and where airliners operate the temperatures are usually below freezing. It’s been pointed out by many a pedantic history nerd that Icarus was under no danger of burning up from flying too high, not that it’d matter to him once he got high enough to asphyxiate or for the wax on his wings to get brittle and break up from freezing. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/117 "2014-03-18T23:14:35Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Which works fine except for the minor detail that (as I understand it) the hold of a cargo plane is not heated and that the cargo may very well be packed in a way that makes it impossible to exit your hiding place, and / or reach the cockpit. The hold has to be heated as cargo planes carry various types of cargo, some of it is perishable or could be damaged if it were unheated. Also, many flights carry a loadmaster whose job it is to watch the load during the flight to make certain that it does nit shift and make the pilot if kit does ( a shifting load will throw the plane’s center of gravity off and might cause a crash). The loadmaster would probably not wish to work in subzero conditions. Finally, fluids flow through the cargo hold’s walls, hydraulic fluid being one of them. If the cargo hold were unheated, the fluids could freeze and that would cause assorted problems with the controls. ---
**Author:** ![Daylate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9dc877/32.png) [@Daylate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daylate)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/118 "2014-03-18T23:40:47Z")
[QUOTE …the temperature drops something like 10 degrees F for every 1000 feet you go up] [/QUOTE] Actually, the temperature drop is 3.5° per 1000 feet. If you ask an engineer about this, he will call it “the adiabatic lapse rate” if you don’t stop him. Here’s what Wikipedia says about it: > [@](#): > > Although the actual atmospheric lapse rate varies, under normal atmospheric conditions the average atmospheric lapse rate results in a temperature decrease of 3.5°F/1,000 ft (6.4°C/km) of altitude. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/119 "2014-03-19T00:07:19Z")
> [@TonySinclair](#): > > I didn’t know a passenger plane could even get to 45,000 feet. According to this, the 747-400 has a 45,000 foot ceiling: [http://www.askcaptainlim.com/-air-safety-aviation-35/129-what-limits-a-plane-to-fly-higher-than-the-normal-cruising-altitude.html](http://www.askcaptainlim.com/-air-safety-aviation-35/129-what-limits-a-plane-to-fly-higher-than-the-normal-cruising-altitude.html) Note what my link says about the 777: > [@](#): > > On a Boeing 777, the maximum service ceiling (altitude at which the maximum rate of climb is reduced to around 100 feet/min) or aircraft\*s certification altitude is 43,100 feet. It sounds like it is difficult to climb much past the service ceiling. How accurate is the radar that gave that 45,000 foot reading? A lot of what I read about this is impossible to make sense of without knowing how often the situation occurs in normal aviation. Take this: > **[Last Words From Cockpit May Be Clue To Jet's Disappearance](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/17/290839449/last-words-from-cockpit-may-be-clue-to-jets-disappearance)** > > There's still no sign of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which went missing on March 8. Was the informal "good night" from the jet a sign it had been taken over or that the crew is involved? > [@](#): > > "The informal hand-off went against standard radio procedures, which would have called for the speaker to read back instructions for contacting the next control centre and include the aircraft’s call sign, said Hugh Dibley, a former British Airways pilot and a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society. If an informal handoff happens a lot in the middle of the night in that part of the world, this is insignificant. If virtually unknown, it’s important. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2014, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819/120 "2014-03-19T00:30:55Z")
I’m going with it having been hijacked by pirates, who will sell it to cargo cultists. The passengers are enjoying life on an island paradise, but are getting sick of a diet of yams, taro, and coconuts. Some of the scientists among them are working out the final details of a coconut radio and we will be hearing from them real soon now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-realistic-chance-that-that-the-missing-plane-landed-safely-all-the-passengers-are-still-alive/683819.md?page=7)