Doug, you really have too many unfounded assumptions and wild guesses for your “statistics” to be in any way useful.
In forums like that, you simply cannot make the “assumption that most posts are by people having problems, or of others offering solutions that don’t work.” There are myriad other reasons why people might post to such a forum.
Furthermore, you say that:
But this fails to make any distinction between different types of “problem.”
For example, if i ask a question about a dissappearing user account and loss of files in Windows, then it’s reasonably likely that there is an actual problem with the Windows OS on my computer. So, my thread might be a reasonable one to include in your statistics.
But if i ask a question about how to remove an icon from my system tray, and prevent that program from starting when i start my computer, this does not indicate a problem with Windows; it simply indicates that i lack certain knowledge about how to use the operating system.
Similarly with a Mac, if i ask a question like this one, which i asked on this board almost two years ago, it probably indicates a problem with the Mac itself. Some Mac models had a problem whereby if they were shut down improperly (either due to user error or power outage) the System Folder would become corrupt. I believe the problem has since been fixed.
But if i complain that i can’t get my airport wireless setup to work, there’s a good chance it’s because i haven’t set it up properly, and has nothing to do with the operating system.
In the two operating systems above, the second example in each case is one that many people might have, and might ask questions about, but that is not at all indicative of an actual problem with the operating system itself.
And it seems to me that Linux users are even more likely to ask such questions, because Linux is, in many ways, a more complicated operating system, particularly for people who have never had occasion to use it before. I’ve contemplated making the switch to Linux at some stage in the future, and i know that if i do i’ll probably have to ask a bunch of questions on message boards before i’m properly set up. And none of these questions would reflect badly on the operating system—they would simply indicate my lack of knowledge about it. The fact that i don’t know how to “recompile a kernel” (or even know what that means) is not an indication that Linux is a bad operating system.