# Any way to translate this divorce rate stat into a %?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [December 3, 2008, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459 "2008-12-03T04:40:51Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459/1 "2008-12-03T04:40:51Z")

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[http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/opinion/29wolfers.html?\_r=2](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/29/opinion/29wolfers.html?_r=2)

> [@](#):
>
> The narrative of rising divorce is also completely at odds with counts of divorce certificates, which show the divorce rate as having peaked at 22.8 divorces per 1,000 married couples in 1979 and to have fallen by 2005 to 16.7.

I’m no statistician. Is it possible to say that 1.67% of current marriages will end in divorce this year? Or is some similar percentage statement possible?

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**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459/2 "2008-12-03T04:41:28Z")

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That’s how I’d read it.

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**Author:** ![nivlac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/3bc359/32.png) [@nivlac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nivlac)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459/3 "2008-12-03T04:43:35Z")

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Your percentage is right, but I don’t see how a 2005 number necessarily relates to 2008. Also two numbers do not make a trend.

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**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459/4 "2008-12-03T10:21:16Z")

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Here’s a chart showing the divorce rate in the U.S. since 1950:

[http://www.bsos.umd.edu/socy/vanneman/socy441/trends/divorce.html](http://www.bsos.umd.edu/socy/vanneman/socy441/trends/divorce.html)

The rate rose rather fast between about 1958 and 1981, but it’s fallen slowly since then.

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**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\
**Post date:** [December 3, 2008, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/any-way-to-translate-this-divorce-rate-stat-into-a/475459/5 "2008-12-03T15:18:14Z")

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> [@nivlac](#):
>
> Your percentage is right, but I don’t see how a 2005 number necessarily relates to 2008. Also two numbers do not make a trend.

You’re right. I should have said “…in 2005” instead of “…this year.” And I was less concerned about determining a trend than getting a relatively current number.