# Anybody else sick of NH and IA having so much say in the process? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 7, 2019, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443 "2019-10-07T19:45:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/1 "2019-10-07T19:45:13Z")
Reading the Biden thread got me thinking. I live in Michigan (one of the three states that put trump over the top and the narrowest one to boot) and by the time the race for the Democratic nomination gets here it will either already be decided or perhaps a candidate I might have wanted to vote for will be gone. Every four god damn years, it’s New Hampshire and Iowa that get such out-sized influence on what, arguably, should be a national process. Does this bug anybody else? I get the whole “retail politics” thing and the argument that the first states should be ones that are small enough that mounting an effective campaign could be done cost-effectively. Could you do “sub-state” primaries? Say in a collection of counties, or Congressional districts? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/2 "2019-10-07T19:51:05Z")
There really should just be one date where everyone has their primaries. I can’t figure out the logic of why primaries should be spread across months, but not general elections. I mean, why shouldn’t Iowa and New Hampshire have their general election for the office of the President on June 1, 2020? And then here in DC, we could have our general election for President on December 15, 2020? Makes total sense, right? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/3 "2019-10-07T19:55:29Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > There really should just be one date where everyone has their primaries. I can’t figure out the logic of why primaries should be spread across months, but not general elections. Two reasons: 1. It’s really hard for the candidates without a huge war chest to campaign in every single state. 2. Unless we had something like ranked choice voting, it would be a near certainty that no candidate would get more than 50% of the delegates and it would just go to convention. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/4 "2019-10-07T19:55:47Z")
Yes, and also, fuck yes. Our primary system is broken. I agree with **Ravenman** that there should be one date nationally for primaries. While I’m wishing for things, I’d like a shortened campaign season (6 weeks before National Primary Day, and then 8 weeks to the national conventions, which can be held at the same time because why not). I will also take [del]a pony[/del] Spanish Norman with dressage training. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/5 "2019-10-07T19:59:42Z")
The primary system, with two smallish states starting it off, lets the campaigns focus, and has other advantages. A big primary day, like **Ravenman** recommends, might be better — though I don’t think so — but would have a huge effect on the process. I think the slower-moving winnowing route is better — I’m not even sure I’m happy with “Super Tuesday.” If there are going to be two smallish states to offer a good cross-section of swing voters, _ **New Hampshire and Iowa might be excellent choices** _, IMO. (Could this serendipity — if you agree I’m right — have arisen by chance and been retained in Darwinian fashion?) ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/6 "2019-10-07T20:02:35Z")
So, primaries are (in addition to straight canvassing) tests of how good candidates are at getting their machines going - appealing to the local party sachems, $$, mobilizing volunteers, etc. etc. When I vote for someone in a primary, I actually prefer to know how well they did at that sort of thing (and I don’t want to waste time evaluating the minor candidates really). For my money, being a Super Tuesday state would be where it’s at - but moving all the primaries to a super-super Tues would defeat the advantages there. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/7 "2019-10-07T20:05:39Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > So, primaries are (in addition to straight canvassing) tests of how good candidates are at getting their machines going - appealing to the local party sachems, $$, mobilizing volunteers, etc. etc. When I vote for someone in a primary, I actually prefer to know how well they did at that sort of thing (and I don’t want to waste time evaluating the minor candidates really). If a candidate wasn’t doing well in getting organized for Primary Day, you’d know it. Or, you’d never have heard of the candidate. Either way, the problem solves itself. Poorly organized candidates would simply lose, just as they do now. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/8 "2019-10-07T20:08:34Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > If a candidate wasn’t doing well in getting organized for Primary Day, you’d know it. Or, you’d never have heard of the candidate. Either way, the problem solves itself. Poorly organized candidates would simply lose, just as they do now. Maybe I shouldn’t say truly poor ones but “second tier”. I don’t think we really know anything about a particular contest until a vote - there are plenty of qualitative stories about “so and so is really turning on the voters/getting out the vote” that don’t pan out when the vote happens. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/9 "2019-10-07T20:31:11Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > Maybe I shouldn’t say truly poor ones but “second tier”. I don’t think we really know anything about a particular contest until a vote - there are plenty of qualitative stories about “so and so is really turning on the voters/getting out the vote” that don’t pan out when the vote happens. But large states don’t have staggered primaries by county when it comes to governor, senator, etc. I’m quite certain that staggered primaries is not holding our country together in any meaningful “but for want of a nail” sort of way. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/10 "2019-10-07T20:32:42Z")
Mechanically, isn’t it up to the parties themselves - if they wanted to change it, they could? ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/11 "2019-10-07T20:36:57Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > Mechanically, isn’t it up to the parties themselves - if they wanted to change it, they could? Pretty sure that the primaries/caucuses are set up by the state-level parties themselves, so if say… North Dakota decided they wanted to be earlier than Iowa, there’s nothing stopping them, except maybe some kind of Federal regulations on how early the primaries/caucuses can be held. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/12 "2019-10-07T20:45:12Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Pretty sure that the primaries/caucuses are set up by the state-level parties themselves, so if say… North Dakota decided they wanted to be earlier than Iowa, there’s nothing stopping them, except maybe some kind of Federal regulations on how early the primaries/caucuses can be held. My understanding is that, at least in the case of New Hampshire, they have a state law stipulating that their primary must be held before any other primaries. So, if another state tried to jump the line, New Hampshire would very likely leapfrog them. I have no idea if Iowa has a similar law about the timing of their caucuses. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/13 "2019-10-07T20:56:51Z")
Which, as a law, should be regarded in much the same way as the attempted law by the Indiana legislature concerning the value of pi. It so happens that no other state has such a law… but what if they did? If it’s sensical for New Hampshire to have such a law, then it’s sensical for two states to do so, which leads to an obvious absurdity. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/14 "2019-10-07T21:02:09Z")
I would support a rotating slate of states going first. Yes, it would take decades to circle back around to your state, but there you have it. The type of candidate and type of campaign would have to adjust to each cycle to target whichever states are first up. My issue with Iowa and New Hampshire is similar to the Electoral College debate. These small states have an outsized influence on the outcome. If, for instance, New York or Illinois, (states with large “blue” urban areas, but more “red” non-urban areas) always went first I can bet we would have seen different candidates succeed early on over the years. Now, I can imagine many folks starting to kvetch about the idea of New York or Illinois going first. Well, welcome to how we feel about Iowa and New Hampshire. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/15 "2019-10-07T21:17:29Z")
Regarding IA and NH having an influence, lets look back at the past 12 contests, since the Iowa caucus started in 1972. Between the two states and two parties, that’s 48 separate elections. Of those 16 the incumbent was running 16 the winner went on to be the candidate 16 the winner was not the candidate. So 50/50. I think their influence will wane as more and more big states join in with Super Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/16 "2019-10-07T21:40:16Z")
> [@Sunny\_Daze](#): > > Yes, and also, fuck yes. I think it’s stupid that IA and NH have the influence that they do. But if we had all primaries on the same day, wouldn’t campaigns just blow their funds on large-electoral-vote states and ignore the rest? I don’t know the answer, I just don’t see that as a solution. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/17 "2019-10-07T21:46:17Z")
It’s Jimmy Carter’s fault Iowa has become a big deal! ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/18 "2019-10-07T22:14:42Z")
[QUOTE=septimus;21903329 If there are going to be two smallish states to offer a good cross-section of swing voters, _ **New Hampshire and Iowa might be excellent choices** _, IMO. (Could this serendipity — if you agree I’m right — have arisen by chance and been retained in Darwinian fashion?)[/QUOTE] I couldn’t think of two worse choices. Two disproportionately white and rural states in a country that is overwhelmingly not rural and is racially much more diverse. Feh. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/19 "2019-10-07T22:28:31Z")
The country is urban, but many swing voters in swing states are small-town or rural. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2019, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443/20 "2019-10-07T23:12:17Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > The country is urban, but many swing voters in swing states are small-town or rural. I don’t see that as a reason to give a structurally larger voice to an unrepresentative sample. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-else-sick-of-nh-and-ia-having-so-much-say-in-the-process/841443.md?page=2)