# Anybody pay attention to Mega Millions? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 18, 2007, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745 "2007-02-18T22:48:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![R.P.McMurphy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/7993a0/32.png) [@R.P.McMurphy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R.P.McMurphy)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2007, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/1 "2007-02-18T22:48:14Z")
The jackpot has grown to $150 million yet in the last three drawings the mega ball has been the same number - 41. What are the odds of that? ---
**Author:** ![brownie55](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f14d63/32.png) [@brownie55](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brownie55)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2007, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/2 "2007-02-18T23:01:11Z")
[QUOTE=Spartydog] The jackpot has grown to $150 million yet in the last three drawings the mega ball has been the same number - 41. What are the odds of that? [/QUOTE] 1/50 x 1/50 x 1/50 Based on 50 Mega numbers. If more or less change the denominator to the actual number. ---
**Author:** ![ASAKMOTSD](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@ASAKMOTSD](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASAKMOTSD)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2007, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/3 "2007-02-18T23:01:25Z")
Statistically? The same as every time. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2007, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/4 "2007-02-18T23:23:35Z")
You can look at all the numers statistics on the Megamilions game website: [http://www.megamillions.com/winningpicks/game\_analysis.asp](http://www.megamillions.com/winningpicks/game_analysis.asp) 41 is a top picked mega ball with 7 picks but 4 has 9 draws. 4 mega balls have only been drawn once. ---
**Author:** ![R.P.McMurphy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/7993a0/32.png) [@R.P.McMurphy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R.P.McMurphy)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/5 "2007-02-19T00:31:10Z")
[QUOTE=ASAKMOTSD] Statistically? The same as every time. [/QUOTE] I don’t think so. I’m talking about 3 in a row. Obviously, I’m no expert in statistics but 3 in a row has to have greater odds than a single draw. Also, I believe there are 54 balls. ---
**Author:** ![robardin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@robardin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robardin)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/6 "2007-02-19T00:45:24Z")
[QUOTE=Spartydog] I don’t think so. I’m talking about 3 in a row. Obviously, I’m no expert in statistics but 3 in a row has to have greater odds than a single draw. Also, I believe there are 54 balls. [/QUOTE] OK, then the _a priori_ odds of drawing any given powerball number three times in a row are 1/54 x 1/54 x 1/54. Which is considerably lower than simply drawing it twice in a row (1/54th as likely), but not impossible. What **brownie55** meant is to be careful of making the common error of thinking that this indicates that drawing #4 is any more likely than 1/54 to produce this same powerball number, any more than flipping heads three times in a row on a fair coin indicates that the fourth flip is more than 50% likely to come up heads. Of course you could argue the reverse, that as the sequence of repeats gets longer, the more likely this is empirical evidence that it is NOT a random system (a “fair coin”)… But repeat results in a random draw are eventually going to happen if you draw enough times, and these things are drawn multiple times a week. In fact, if no two back to back drawings EVER had the same powerball number, that would be equally evidence of a non-random system. And there is a lot vested in making sure the lottery is as close to a truly random system as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Harmonious\_Discord](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/74df32/32.png) [@Harmonious\_Discord](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Harmonious_Discord)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/7 "2007-02-19T00:47:03Z")
[QUOTE=Spartydog] I don’t think so. I’m talking about 3 in a row. Obviously, I’m no expert in statistics but 3 in a row has to have greater odds than a single draw. Also, I believe there are 54 balls. [/QUOTE] Going with what you said. 1 in 157464 1/54 \* 1/54 \* 1/54 ---
**Author:** ![Keeve](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@Keeve](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Keeve)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/8 "2007-02-19T00:54:20Z")
[QUOTE=Spartydog] The jackpot has grown to $150 million yet in the last three drawings the mega ball has been the same number - 41. What are the odds of that? [/QUOTE] The odds of getting 41,41,41 are exactly the same as of getting 14,14,14 or 5,5,5 or 23,18,47 or any other combination. ---
**Author:** ![Canadjun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@Canadjun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Canadjun)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/9 "2007-02-19T00:55:11Z")
[QUOTE=Spartydog] I don’t think so. I’m talking about 3 in a row. Obviously, I’m no expert in statistics but 3 in a row has to have greater odds than a single draw. [/QUOTE] But it has the same odds as any other combination of 3 balls, e.g. 41 41 41 has the same likelihood as 21 36 45. ---
**Author:** ![R.P.McMurphy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/7993a0/32.png) [@R.P.McMurphy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R.P.McMurphy)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/10 "2007-02-19T03:11:01Z")
[QUOTE=Harmonious Discord] Going with what you said. 1 in 157464 1/54 \* 1/54 \* 1/54 [/QUOTE] I’ll buy that answer. That being said, I doubt that there have been 157,464 Mega Millions drawings which means that some long odds have been tested. And, to further disagree with **ASAKMOTSD** , those odds are a lot longer than 1 in 54. ---
**Author:** ![Eleusis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Eleusis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eleusis)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/11 "2007-02-19T05:47:17Z")
[QUOTE=Harmonious Discord] Going with what you said. 1 in 157464 1/54 \* 1/54 \* 1/54 [/QUOTE] Well, given that it doesn’t matter (does it really?) if it’s 41,41,41 or 3,3,3; I submit that it’s actually 1/54 \* 1/54, or only 1 in 2916. ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/12 "2007-02-19T06:29:14Z")
[QUOTE=Eleusis] Well, given that it doesn’t matter (does it really?) if it’s 41,41,41 or 3,3,3; I submit that it’s actually 1/54 \* 1/54, or only 1 in 2916. [/QUOTE] The chances of getting 41 three times are one in 54[sup]3[/sup]. The chance of getting any number three times is one in 54[sup]2[/sup]. (You have one chance in one of getting some number on the first draw. After that, it gets harder.) Tris ---
**Author:** ![Eleusis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Eleusis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eleusis)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2007, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anybody-pay-attention-to-mega-millions/392745/13 "2007-02-19T07:05:37Z")
[QUOTE=Triskadecamus] The chances of getting 41 three times are one in 54[sup]3[/sup]. The chance of getting any number three times is one in 54[sup]2[/sup]. (You have one chance in one of getting some number on the first draw. After that, it gets harder.) Tris [/QUOTE] No shit