# Anyone else fearing a red wave? (Or at most, a blue ripple?) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 28, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633 "2018-10-28T14:54:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/221 "2018-10-31T12:48:44Z")
According to Nate Silver (whose team continues to be the gold standard of election forecasts, IMO), the data has suggested that the Democrats’ chances at the Senate has decreased by a small amount, and their chances at the House (which were already strong) have increased a small amount, over the last couple of months. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/222 "2018-10-31T13:20:03Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The real victory is 2020, because that is when the census is done and districts are redrawn. Normally I’m against gerrymandering, but if it isn’t going to be overturned on a national level by the SCOTUS, then the democrats need to gerrymander as much as possible after 2020. Honestly, democratic gerrymandering may be the only thing that causes the GOP supreme court to overturn gerrymandering on a national level. As long as only republicans benefit, the SCOTUS may look the other way on the issue. Half of those offices are elected in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/223 "2018-10-31T13:21:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > According to Nate Silver (whose team continues to be the gold standard of election forecasts, IMO), the data has suggested that the Democrats’ chances at the Senate has decreased by a small amount, and their chances at the House (which were already strong) have increased a small amount, over the last couple of months. That’s not your opinion. It’s a stone cold fact until someone comes along and takes his crown.😃 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/224 "2018-10-31T13:29:44Z")
The Dems will probably take the House, but not by much. They will lose a seat in the Senate. I think the most interesting races will be the governorships and state houses. Winning those or even having some momentum would breathe life back into the party. The 2020 campaign is going to present major challenges for Democrats, though - at least as things stand now. But if economic and national security conditions deteriorate, then all bets are off. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/225 "2018-10-31T13:29:54Z")
That’s been the trend all along, the House is definitely in play for the Democrats, but the Senate was always a long shot. What will be interesting to see is if the trend accelerates of the GOP losing white women voters, especially in the suburbs. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/226 "2018-10-31T13:34:53Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > That’s been the trend all along, the House is definitely in play for the Democrats, but the Senate was always a long shot. What will be interesting to see is if the trend accelerates of the GOP losing white women voters, especially in the suburbs. Indeed, it will be interesting to see how Trump’s base holds up and more so what the strategy of Republicans will be going forward. If the Democrats somehow perform better than expected and stun Republicans in this election, then it proves that Trump is mortal and the Republicans will have to decide if they are still the part of Trump. But if it’s just a usual midterm in which the party in power loses some seats, I don’t think Trump sweats much. He will still have the Senate, which is more important in terms of enabling him than the House. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/227 "2018-10-31T13:49:24Z")
I think it’s more a case that Trump would decide whether he’s still a Republican. Trump is not a committed Republican. He’s committed to his own success. If signing Democratic legislation and claiming credit for it gets him wins, he’ll do it. Which would actually make things a lot easier for Republicans in terms of making a break from Trumpism. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/228 "2018-10-31T14:50:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think it’s more a case that Trump would decide whether he’s still a Republican. Trump is not a committed Republican. He’s committed to his own success. If signing Democratic legislation and claiming credit for it gets him wins, he’ll do it. Which would actually make things a lot easier for Republicans in terms of making a break from Trumpism. He’s committed to conservative extremists to the bitter end and there’s nothing that’s going to change that. He and his family’s criminal enterprise are in the cross-hairs of a massive criminal investigation. He needs to use the extremists to corrupt the investigation and to keep power indefinitely. The extremists need him to gain unprecedented levels of access to the government and policy making. It’s a marriage made in hell. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/229 "2018-10-31T15:03:03Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > But I think a lot of anti Trump passion has died down, and I’m not too hopeful that the least motivated 20 million democrats will bother to show up. What causes your pessimism? In Texas, the early voting totals _already_ surpassed the total vote from the 2014 midterms, and there’s still the rest of the week for early voting and Election Day itself. It looks like it’s going to surpass the vote for the 2012 presidential election as well, and come close to 2016. I understand this is true in several other states’ early voting totals. Of course, one basis for pessimism on these numbers is that Republican voters are _also_ turning up, but I don’t think you have to worry that the Dems are going to sit this one out. ---
**Author:** ![postpic200](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@postpic200](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/postpic200)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/230 "2018-10-31T17:08:31Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > All of these individual sentences are true. > > Except arguably the first: I think many on the actual left well know how unpopular their causes are: so unpopular that the Democratic leadership doesn’t even embrace them! The list in your second sentence _would_ be a platform that would alienate them from John and Jane Smith - _if it were actually their platform_! > > I should know, I feel I have less in common with those people, some even on this message board, who espouse what you are talking about, than the actual Democratic candidates who steer well clear of this. > > Sadly, many republican voters _think_ this is the actual Democratic platform, but changing their actual positions won’t help because they will continue to be told lies about what the Democrats stand for, and most of them want to believe the lies as a reason to continue to vote for who they’ve already decided to vote for. While they may not be part of the “official platform”, we’ve seen Dems, who have said that, eight Democrats co-sponsored aa bill to abolish-ICE and replace it but when the house GOP members said they’d bring that bill up for a vote, the Democrats call it a stunt. > **[The “abolish ICE” campaign arrives in Congress | Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-abolish-ice-campaign-arrives-in-congress/)** > > A bill to abolish ICE introduced by progressive Democrats shows one policy proposal for eliminating the agency. Republicans responded by passing a resolution in support of the agency. Gun confiscation,”In a USA Today op-ed entitled “Ban assault weapons, buy them back, go after resisters,” Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., argued Thursday that prior proposals to ban assault weapons “would leave millions of assault weapons in our communities for decades to come.” And “criminally prosecute any who choose to defy [the buyback] by keeping their weapons.” > **[Flashback: Ban assault weapons, buy them back, go after resisters: Eric Swalwell](https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/05/03/ban-assault-weapons-buy-them-back-prosecute-offenders-column/570590002/)** > > Ban assault weapons and buy them back. It might cost $15 billion, but we can afford it. Consider it an investment in our most important right, to live. On LGBTQ issues, what most people remember is the whole bathroom issue, prop 8 (California gay marriage) etc where if you disagreed with them you were threatened, fired etc. And while, again, not part of the “official” platform, more Democrats supported it and vocal for it. So while the platform might not say we’re for open borders, gun confiscation, etc many elected Democrats and those Democrats who are in power have said just that. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/231 "2018-10-31T18:37:42Z")
It’s an easy line of attack because it sounds right, but abolishing ICE is not a call for open borders. The agency is only 15 years old and you didn’t have open borders in 2002. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/232 "2018-10-31T18:37:59Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The Dems will probably take the House, but not by much. … To be able to hold you to your prognostications - please define what “not by much” means to you. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/233 "2018-10-31T19:59:49Z")
> [@postpic200](#): > > While they may not be part of the “official platform”, we’ve seen Dems, who have said that, eight Democrats co-sponsored aa bill to abolish-ICE and replace it but when the house GOP members said they’d bring that bill up for a vote, the Democrats call it a stunt. > > So while the platform might not say we’re for open borders, gun confiscation, etc many elected Democrats and those Democrats who are in power have said just that. Sure, but I can show you Repubs running that support the KKK. Does that mean the GOp stands behind the KKK? All parties have extremists. ---
**Author:** ![postpic200](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@postpic200](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/postpic200)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/234 "2018-10-31T20:12:47Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Sure, but I can show you Repubs running that support the KKK. Does that mean the GOp stands behind the KKK? > > All parties have extremists. And I can show you dem’s who were KKK members., who voted against the civil right act etc. The point is the leadership isn’t currently condemning people who ARE saying we need to get rid if ICE, when the GOP said OK we’ll vote on it, it’s suddenly it’s grandstanding. How about the vote on a resolution to express support for ICE 133 Democrats voted “present” not yea or nae, just I’m here but I’m not voting, 18 supported it. Why not take a stand? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/235 "2018-10-31T20:21:46Z")
> [@postpic200](#): > > … How about the vote on a resolution to express support for ICE 133 Democrats voted “present” not yea or nae, just I’m here but I’m not voting, 18 supported it. Why not take a stand? Doing so would have upset their supporters. They’re beholden to a rabid mob. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/236 "2018-10-31T20:33:59Z")
> [@postpic200](#): > > How about the vote on a resolution to express support for ICE 133 Democrats voted “present” not yea or nae, just I’m here but I’m not voting, 18 supported it. Why not take a stand? _Brave Sir Democrat ran away. Bravely ran away away. When principle reared it’s ugly head, He bravely turned his tail and fled. Yes, brave Sir Democrat turned about And gallantly he chickened out. Swiftly taking to his feet, He beat a very brave retreat. Bravest of the brave, Sir Democrat!_ [Cite](http://www.montypython.net/scripts/bravesir.php). Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/237 "2018-10-31T20:34:48Z")
> [@postpic200](#): > > And I can show you dem’s who were KKK members., who voted against the civil right act etc. Yes, back before the parties switched polarity. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/238 "2018-10-31T20:34:49Z")
> [@postpic200](#): > > And I can show you dem’s who were KKK members., who voted against the civil right act etc. The point is the leadership isn’t currently condemning people who ARE saying we need to get rid if ICE, when the GOP said OK we’ll vote on it, it’s suddenly it’s grandstanding. How about the vote on a resolution to express support for ICE 133 Democrats voted “present” not yea or nae, just I’m here but I’m not voting, 18 supported it. Why not take a stand? So, what, are you saying it wasn’t grandstanding? This isn’t complicated, so don’t make out like it is. ICE is doing some rotten shit. Many Democrats want to tell the truth: ICE is broken, due to the rotten shit it’s pulling. Republicans are going to lie their goddamned asses about it: when folks point out how broken ICE is, Republicans are going to say O NOES DEMOCRATS WANT TO ALLOW ALL THE BROWN PEOPLE IN ITS TEH END OF TEH WORLD VOTE RED and so on and so on. Many other Democrats want to win the election more than they want to speak out about this particular truth, so they’re going to work quietly behind the scenes to fix what’s broken about ICE. Republicans see this as a lost opportunity to lie about Democrats, so they brought it up to a vote, hoping to get a chance to tell a lie about Democrats. Show me where I’m wrong. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Doing so would have upset their supporters. They’re beholden to a rabid mob. Oh, for fuck’s sake. The biggest movers and shakers in the Republican party of the last decade named themselves after a literal mob. Don’t even go there with this bullshit talking point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/239 "2018-10-31T20:51:00Z")
ICE is the only government agency that pulls rotten shit? WOuldn’t the answer be a reform bill, as the GOP did with the IRS in the 90s, restricting the rotten shit? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/240 "2018-10-31T21:08:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > ICE is the only government agency that pulls rotten shit? WOuldn’t the answer be a reform bill, as the GOP did with the IRS in the 90s, restricting the rotten shit? Except that the IRS\* wasn’t\* pulling rotten shit, the reform bill was 99% grandstanding by the GOP. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=13)