# Anyone else fearing a red wave? (Or at most, a blue ripple?) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 28, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633 "2018-10-28T14:54:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/21 "2018-10-28T19:44:10Z")
A big fear for me this cycle was a Progressive wave pulling Democrats further left as a normal midterm reversal or bigger wave saw them elected and gaining the incumbent advantage in later cycles. That fear mostly evaporated as center-left candidates did well in the Democratic primaries. My party has been jogging away from my touch right of center politics for a while…and started sprinting with Trump. It’s nice to see that Democrats managed to at least put the brakes on the window pulling left and offer me acceptable alternatives. I truly feared having to violate my general rule for voting for the first time. I don’t vote for Tea Party or Progressive candidates. This year won’t require me breaking that rule for the first time. I don’t expect to see the parties closely resemble the politics of my two favorite President, the elder Bush and Clinton, anytime soon. The primaries were a nice little surprise though. Maybe it’s just my touch right of center politics but I’m not seeing a big practical difference between a one seat and a forty seat House majority, anyway. A normal mid-term shift or giant wave are pretty close to the same in effect IMO. Passing legislation will still take bipartisan support in the Senate. Passing legislation that Trump doesn’t support will still take significant GOP support in the House to overcome his veto. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/22 "2018-10-28T20:05:33Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > And the cynical portion of me just wonders if so many Repub positions I consider anathema actually represent a majority of Americans’ values. > > Anyone else share my unease? Yes. The unease you should feel is the Democrats pushing away voters. Democrats on the Dope have demonstrated sexism, racism, and so on. They’ve spent their time complaining about Trump & the Republicans but no time about why voters should actually vote for them. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/23 "2018-10-28T20:09:39Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > It wouldn’t surprise me. The left is badly out of touch with how pissed off a huge percentage of the populace is with progressive causes. Open borders, gun confiscation, genderqueer empowerment and berating people for being insufficiently woke is not a platform that will endear the Democrats to John and Jane Smith. At best the Dems might get a bare majority in the House, and they may well do worse. The left can’t be as out of touch as you say, seeing that none of the above is even slightly on the platform. The right is WAY out of touch with what the left really is for, but they love it that way. Don’t Confuse Me With the Facts is their motto. To speak to the OP, hell yes. With a third of the country lining up to for their brown shirts, you bet I’m afraid. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/24 "2018-10-28T20:27:38Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > After 63 million Americans voted for Trump I’m done predicting or hoping the decency of the average American will save us. It won’t. Those depraved voters! How dare they? What do they think this is, some sort of representative democracy? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/25 "2018-10-28T20:50:10Z")
Trick question! Republicans don’t think, they believe. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/26 "2018-10-28T20:55:38Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m fearing a blue ripple. I’m fearing that due to gerrymandering the dems could win the popular vote by 4-6% but still lose most of the elections. > > After 63 million Americans voted for Trump I’m done predicting or hoping the decency of the average American will save us. It won’t. I’m holding onto a bit of hope that the March for Our Lives kids will save us. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/27 "2018-10-28T21:04:50Z")
Red wave? No. Blue ripple vs wave? Well there have been some discussion in some threads here over what counts as a “wave.” Broad consensus is the Senate stays R and that the House goes D … and as an increasingly partisan Democrat I’ll be content if that happens even if that’s a ripple of just the +23 that gets the House majority. It is not impossible for the GOP to keep the House. A Blue wave that takes the Senate is highly unlikely. If that is needed to be other than “a ripple” then a ripple it likely will be. Most though I think will call it a wave if they win the national popular vote by 8 or more and/or flip at least 30 seats. And I am not completely confident of that. “Wave” status at that 30 seat margin will also be informed by how close Ds come in races that have no business being competitive, even with losses. This _is_ a “nationalized” election. And it as much as the Right would want it to be about what they want to paint Ds as having as a platform that is not what it is about. It is about whether or not Trump has brought the changes that this country and this world needs and should have a full endorsement with no checks or balances. Or should there be some limits on his power? It is perhaps some about if what we are seeing currently is what “great” means, is what we as a nation want to aspire to be and to become more of. As for those progressive causes … NO, being against the demonization of all immigrants, against _lies_ about them, against the lack of our country’s _usual_ compassion for those with need for asylum, against the cruel separation of families, is NOT open borders. NO, being for modest controls that make mass murders a bit less easily accomplished as a bit less likely to have big of a toll, is not “confiscation.” NO, being in support that those of us and of our brothers and sisters, sons and daughters, and friends, who you’d lumps as genderqueer" should not be discriminated against for who they are, is not “empowerment” - it is supporting the basic rights of those we love to not have to live as a discriminated underclass. “Woke”? I know very very few who would embrace being _that_. Berating people for being assholes who impose their hate on others and who then whine when anyone calls out their disgusting crap? I know a few more who embrace that. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/28 "2018-10-28T22:27:52Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > I’m holding onto a bit of hope that the March for Our Lives kids will save us. Who? Oh, you mean, the kids who had a fleeting burst of publicity, advocating one of the most politically _unpopular_ positions (gun bans) - oh yeah, they will definitely save us. All the Rust Belt voters in the critical states that the Democrats need to win in the Electoral College, they are definitely going to be brought back into the fold by energetic campaigning for stricter gun control. No, there’s only one way the Democrats claw their way back to the top: by rallying around a charismatic candidate who runs on a simple message: economy, economy, economy, and patriotism, patriotism, patriotism. Yes, patriotism, JFK-style, man-on-the-moon style, “America is going to be the trailblazer of the world again, a leader, not a follower” type patriotism. Not nationalism. True patriotism. The idea that America is going to develop the best scientific innovations and have the best economy and produce the best products and achieve and exceed our dreams of progress - and that each and every citizen can contribute to it and should want to contribute to it out of love of country. This is not complicated shit here, it’s actually extremely simple, and that’s the kind of message that is needed. The Democrats need another JFK. Or they need dozens of them all over the country running with that kind of message. They can get this done. It’s been done before. It might not be possible in 2020 because Trump’s cult of personality might be too strong, but Trumpism is not going to survive his second term. Once he’s out, it’s back to the Democrats versus Republicans rather than Trump vs. anti-Trump, and it’s going to be easier for the Democrats to make it again, if they can get their shit together. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/29 "2018-10-28T22:50:42Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Who? > > Oh, you mean, the kids who had a fleeting burst of publicity, advocating one of the most politically _unpopular_ positions (gun bans) - oh yeah, they will definitely save us. All the Rust Belt voters in the critical states that the Democrats need to win in the Electoral College, they are definitely going to be brought back into the fold by energetic campaigning for stricter gun control. I mean the kids who have sponsored and/or supported more than 70 events across the US already, with another 10 scheduled up to the election. Most events have been focused on getting high school and college kids to register to vote. The kids who have a strong online and Twitter presence, working to publicize the amount of money that candidates have received from the NRA and encouraging their peers to vote for candidates that support gun control. Those kids are impressive as hell. I look forward to voting for some of then in about 10 years. But gee, **Lamoral** , you seem to have missed what this thread is about – the possible blue wave in the 2018 midterm election. What does taking the Electoral College have to do with that? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/30 "2018-10-28T23:47:25Z")
I do fear a red wave, because I believe the Pubbies will do ANYTHING to get their people elected. Like disqualifying voters in Georgia. Moving the polling place to outer-fucking-boonieland in Kansas. This is disturbing: **Texans say voting [machines](https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/texas/article/Texans-say-voting-machines-changing-13339276.php)changing straight-ticket choices** > [@](#): > > AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Some Texas voters are complaining that machines flipped their straight-ticket selections to the other party in key races during early voting, especially the much-watched Senate battle between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke. > > The secretary of state’s office said Friday that there have been reported issues with Hart eSlate voting machines, which are used in around 30 percent of counties statewide and feature a wheel for selecting candidates and buttons to move from screen to screen. But it says they are caused by voters themselves and often occur when they complete and submit ballots too quickly. > … Okay, fine. But why don’t the machines change Cruz votes on straight-ticket-Republican ballots to votes for Beto, hmmm? ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/31 "2018-10-29T00:14:59Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > It wouldn’t surprise me. The left is badly out of touch with how pissed off a huge percentage of the populace is with progressive causes. Open borders, gun confiscation, genderqueer empowerment and berating people for being insufficiently woke is not a platform that will endear the Democrats to John and Jane Smith. At best the Dems might get a bare majority in the House, and they may well do worse. The best I can call that drivel is that it’s much the same as the gross misrepresentation we see from Fox News. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/32 "2018-10-29T00:17:59Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > I do fear a red wave, because I believe the Pubbies will do ANYTHING to get their people elected. Like disqualifying voters in Georgia. Moving the polling place to outer-fucking-boonieland in Kansas. > > This is disturbing: > > **Texans say voting [machines](https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/texas/article/Texans-say-voting-machines-changing-13339276.php)changing straight-ticket choices**Okay, fine. But why don’t the machines change Cruz votes on straight-ticket-Republican ballots to votes for Beto, hmmm? They \*sorta \*do. A Dem straight ticket votes does change to Cruz, but a GOP straight ticket just doesnt vote for Cruz. And here’s the point, they knew about this, and did **NOTHING!** :mad: ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/33 "2018-10-29T00:49:01Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > This is disturbing: > > **Texans say voting [machines](https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/texas/article/Texans-say-voting-machines-changing-13339276.php)changing straight-ticket choices** More from that article: > [@](#): > > But it says they are **caused by voters themselves** and often occur when they complete and submit ballots too quickly… > > “The Hart eSlate machines are not malfunctioning, the problems being reported are a result of **user error** — usually voters hitting a button or using the selection wheel before the screen is finished rendering,” said Sam Taylor, spokesman for the office of Secretary of State Rolando Pablos… > > The machine’s manufacturer, Hart InterCivic, attributed the Texas issues to 16-year-old technology. > > “The same story has happened in multiple elections,” Steven Sockwell, the company’s vice president of marketing, said Friday. “There was no flipping then and there’s not any now.” > > Instead, Sockwell said, what typically happens in cases where someone believes his or her vote has been changed is a voter will select a straight-party ticket, then unintentionally change votes in individual races without realizing it. What a bunch of disingenuous bullshit. When a problem like this is occurring for a significant number of users, it’s not user error, it’s design error. If people have to be trained to use an interface, it’s a bad interface. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/34 "2018-10-29T01:47:14Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > But gee, **Lamoral** , you seem to have missed what this thread is about – the possible blue wave in the 2018 midterm election. What does taking the Electoral College have to do with that? I guess my point, though unclear, was that the 2018 midterm election isn’t going to “save us,” but that it is in fact possible to save us (our country) by winning the presidential election even if it seems that all hope is lost after the midterm… ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/35 "2018-10-29T01:55:06Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Last week I made the mistake of checking 538/RCP in advance of the upcoming elections. For the last couple of days I realized I was fearful of a repeat of 2018, with results differing from predictions, and the Repubs maintaining or even increasing their current advantages in both houses. > > On too many occasions, Dems have failed to turn out when needed, and to fumble any advantage. And the cynical portion of me just wonders if so many Repub positions I consider anathema actually represent a majority of Americans’ values. > > Anyone else share my unease? No. Could be confirmation bias, but it seems to me that a lot of people are pretty upset about how things are going and want a change. I think this past week was a wake up call with bombs and shootings and I think this will rally the Dems to go out and vote. I honestly haven’t been paying attention to actual races, so just my own impression based on people I know and what they are saying. Could be like the apocryphal story about the lady saying she can’t understand how Nixon was elected, since all her friends voted against him. I was certainly unpleasantly surprised when the orange haired idiot was elected, as I thought that Clinton should have wiped the floor with him. All MY friends voted for her, after all, so wtf…? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/36 "2018-10-29T02:18:36Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Those depraved voters! How dare they? What do they think this is, some sort of representative democracy? Yup its a representative democracy. Lets hope the constitution holds up under the wave of voter suppression, gerrymandering and authoritarianism that the GOP are pushing for. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/37 "2018-10-29T04:18:49Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > I do fear a red wave, because I believe the Pubbies will do ANYTHING to get their people elected. Like disqualifying voters in Georgia. Moving the polling place to outer-fucking-boonieland in Kansas. > > This is disturbing: > > **Texans say voting [machines](https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/texas/article/Texans-say-voting-machines-changing-13339276.php)changing straight-ticket choices**Okay, fine. But why don’t the machines change Cruz votes on straight-ticket-Republican ballots to votes for Beto, hmmm? If someone really wanted to hack voting machines, surely they would do it in a way that the voter couldn’t readily see? Change Beto votes to Cruz, but not in such a way that the voter can **see** “CRUZ”. It would logically still read “Beto” so as to lull the voters into security. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/38 "2018-10-29T04:28:36Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If someone really wanted to hack voting machines, surely they would do it in a way that the voter couldn’t readily see? Change Beto votes to Cruz, but not in such a way that the voter can **see** “CRUZ”. It would logically still read “Beto” so as to lull the voters into security. Sure. It’s not a hack. It is likely a bug, but once the GOP bosses saw it as a bug that favored them, they have no desire to fix it. This bug will likely cost Beto the election. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/39 "2018-10-29T04:28:36Z")
I always felt that Trump would win despite what the polls said leading up to the election. I don’t really trust the polls there are too many variables to account for and I feel like a lot of people probably lie to pollsters. I have no facts to back up what I’m saying it’s just my gut feeling. I think Dems may get one or two unexpected wins but I also don’t think there is going to be some huge blue wave and that maybe even the Republicans will do better than expected, I think 2016 proved the polls worthless. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/40 "2018-10-29T08:30:52Z")
Imagine that sometime told you that if you stuck your hand into an opening in the top of a box that there was a one in seven chance that your hand would be attacked by a venomous scorpion - not venomous like you’ll die, but you’ll be severely ill for two years and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in doctors fees - and a six in seven chance that you’ll find a stack of money, totaling $300,000 that you can keep and spend as you desire. How confident do you feel about sticking your hand in the box? Trump had a one in three chance of winning. There’d be no way I’d put my hand on that box. With one in seven, I’d much rather desist, but if forced I’d only be relatively apprehensive. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=3)