# Anyone else fearing a red wave? (Or at most, a blue ripple?) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 28, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633 "2018-10-28T14:54:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/61 "2018-10-29T16:52:15Z")
[OTOH](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/national-republicans-jump-into-two-more-house-districts-once-considered-safe), the GOP has been doing last-minute money dumps into GOP-held districts long considered safe, that are suddenly looking iffy. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/62 "2018-10-29T16:57:32Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > “Abstain” regularly wins the popular vote in national elections. [Not true.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections) > [@](#): > > The Democratic Party represents 15% of Americans, at most. It all depends on what one means by ‘represents,’ but I can’t see any reason to give this claim any more cred than the other one. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/63 "2018-10-29T16:59:03Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > On the blue ripple front, [RCP has the House at basically a toss-up](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html). It’s an interesting divergence from 538’s forecast. Says more about RCP than anything. They used to be more honest. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/64 "2018-10-29T17:12:47Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > A “red wave” may be the best thing for the Democratic Party in the long run. > > It may force them to re-evaluate their priorities to become more relevant to the mainstream. I’d ask you what in your mind constitutes “the mainstream” and what the Democratic Party would have to jettison in order to attain it…but I’m not in the mood at the moment for major-league weaselling. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/65 "2018-10-29T17:19:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Says more about RCP than anything. They used to be more honest. Meh, [Politico’s prediction](https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/) (208 D, 199 R, 28 toss-ups) only varies by a few seats. Do you think they’re not being honest either? [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball](https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_title=sabato-crystal-ball-ratings) is in the same basic range too (212 D, 202 R, 21 TU). Dishonest as well? [The Cook Political Report](https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/cook-political-report-ratings) has it at 209 D, 196 R, 30 TU. Liars the lot of them? Or are they all just telling you things you don’t like to hear? ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/66 "2018-10-29T17:21:47Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > but I’m not in the mood at the moment for major-league weaselling. :rolleyes: From me? You’re accusing me of being deceptive? ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/67 "2018-10-29T17:30:33Z")
I expect the Republicans to keep the Senate. I expect the Democrats to take the house, though perhaps not in “blue wave” proportions. If they could keep both, that’d be fine by me. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/68 "2018-10-29T17:33:21Z")
Fearing, anticipating, and welcoming a red wave. Bring on the decade of despair and let’s get this band-aid ripped off already. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/69 "2018-10-29T17:57:04Z")
538: 216 D 197 R 22 TU That’s not wildly different from the other numbers being reported. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/70 "2018-10-29T18:02:28Z")
And Nate’s odds of House control have gone _up_ to 6 in 7 from 4 in 5 just a few days ago. Of course this leaves a 14% chance of a disappointment which is far too large for comfort. ---
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/71 "2018-10-29T18:04:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Meh, [Politico’s prediction](https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/) (208 D, 199 R, 28 toss-ups) only varies by a few seats. Do you think they’re not being honest either? > > [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball](https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_title=sabato-crystal-ball-ratings) is in the same basic range too (212 D, 202 R, 21 TU). Dishonest as well? > > [The Cook Political Report](https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/cook-political-report-ratings) has it at 209 D, 196 R, 30 TU. > > Liars the lot of them? Or are they all just telling you things you don’t like to hear? Difference in how everything’s being calculated. When you get down to it, on the [538 House Prediction page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header), they have 216 D / 197 R, 22 TU, which is in the same range as the others you noted. However, 538 does a probabilistic forecast of each individual race. And thus puts it at 6-out-of-7 chance that the D’s pick up enough seats to take control. Sabato’s, Cook’s Politico, and RCP don’t do that, they just list the Rs / Ds / Toss-up breakdown. What’s interesting when you break it down further and go to the 7-category model of Solid / Likely / Leans Rs/ Ds plus Toss ups, that’s where things get interesting. All 4 models have around 180-90 Solid D seats and only 130’s Solid R. Meaning probabilistically, there are a lot more R seats in play (Likely/Leans) than there are D seats. This is part of where the 538 model gets their likely win percentage. Nate Silver did a fascinating article explaining this a lot better, and how it’s almost certain of a totally unexpected upset: [An Upset That Nobody Sees Coming Could Determine Control Of The House | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-an-upset-that-nobody-sees-coming-could-determine-control-of-the-house/) ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/72 "2018-10-29T18:09:52Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Anyone can “be manipulated.” > > Nonetheless, the system of government we have relies on the will of the people, as expressed through their elected representatives. That’s how we do government since 1789. The attempt to “manipulate,” voters is otherwise described as advocating for voters to vote for your party. The complaint that voters are too stupid to make the correct choices – known also as “the choices you prefer,” – is not an argument for democracy. It’s an argument that you should get to be in charge, and not the stupid voters. > > His Most Serene Majesty King Czarcasm I, First of His Name, Destroyer of Deadly Democracy and Defender of What Is Right. All Hail! > > I assume this is not the goal you desire. Or is it? I know at least one person who attempted to take their own life as a direct result of the current Republican administrations concerted attempt to erase the concept of trans rights. I know a dozen more people - including my girlfriend - who are terrified over what your president is going to do next. The possibility that your party’s naked bigotry is going to be rewarded in the polls is very possible. But, yeah, I guess all my trans friends’ worries that your party’s naked bigotry against them might actually be rewarded in the polls makes them anti-democracy. And I’ll stop there, because the next part of what I want to write to you isn’t suitable for this forum. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/73 "2018-10-29T18:24:41Z")
> [@Celidin](#): > > Difference in how everything’s being calculated. When you get down to it, on the [538 House Prediction page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header), they have 216 D / 197 R, 22 TU, which is in the same range as the others you noted. > > However, 538 does a probabilistic forecast of each individual race. And thus puts it at 6-out-of-7 chance that the D’s pick up enough seats to take control. Sabato’s, Cook’s Politico, and RCP don’t do that, they just list the Rs / Ds / Toss-up breakdown. > What’s interesting when you break it down further and go to the 7-category model of Solid / Likely / Leans Rs/ Ds plus Toss ups, that’s where things get interesting. > > All 4 models have around 180-90 Solid D seats and only 130’s Solid R. Meaning probabilistically, there are a lot more R seats in play (Likely/Leans) than there are D seats. This is part of where the 538 model gets their likely win percentage. > > Nate Silver did a fascinating article explaining this a lot better, and how it’s almost certain of a totally unexpected upset: [An Upset That Nobody Sees Coming Could Determine Control Of The House | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-an-upset-that-nobody-sees-coming-could-determine-control-of-the-house/) Thanks for that explanation. Do you think RCP is being dishonest? ---
**Author:** ![Celidin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Celidin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Celidin)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/74 "2018-10-29T18:34:30Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Thanks for that explanation. Do you think RCP is being dishonest? No, but I’m also not the one who made that claim. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/75 "2018-10-29T18:54:47Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > That’s really sad. > > You need to re-think your priorities. Why? I’d say fear is the emotion of every single person I know, and millions I don’t know, in the US. Fascism is pretty fucking scary. Neo nazis are scary. White supremacy violence is scary. Destabilizing global trade is scary. Accelerating rather than addressing climate change is scary. Demonizing almost everyone except white anglo men is scary. Caging children indefinitely? Scary. The question is, why the hell aren’t YOU scared. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/76 "2018-10-29T18:59:28Z")
> [@Celidin](#): > > No, but I’m also not the one who made that claim. I know, you just jumped into the conversation (which is great, no problem with that) and I wanted to see where a third perspective might land on the spectrum between RTFirefly and myself. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/77 "2018-10-29T19:01:05Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Why? I’d say fear is the emotion of every single person I know, and millions I don’t know, in the US. Fascism is pretty fucking scary. Neo nazis are scary. White supremacy violence is scary. Destabilizing global trade is scary. Accelerating rather than addressing climate change is scary. Demonizing almost everyone except white anglo men is scary. Caging children indefinitely? Scary. > > The question is, why the hell aren’t YOU scared. None of those things you listed are “scary”. They are evil. If you are afraid of evil, then you will lose to it every time. Evil cannot be conquered with evil. Evil must be conquered with love. 2 Timothy 1:7 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/78 "2018-10-29T19:06:57Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > None of those things you listed are “scary”. They are evil. > > If you are afraid of evil, then you will lose to it every time. > > Evil cannot be conquered with evil. Evil must be conquered with love. > > 2 Timothy 1:7 You know who else was conquered, but not with love? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/79 "2018-10-29T19:17:05Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > None of those things you listed are “scary”. They are evil. > > If you are afraid of evil, then you will lose to it every time. > > Evil cannot be conquered with evil. Evil must be conquered with love. > > 2 Timothy 1:7 Tell me how exactly love could solve the problems listed in the post you responded to. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/80 "2018-10-29T19:21:51Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Tell me how exactly love could solve the problems listed in the post you responded to. Every single one of those problems are specifically problems of not loving your neighbor. Love the fascist, love the neo-Nazi, love the white supremacist, love the foreigner, love the immigrant, and on and on. Why do you think those people became that way? They live in a hateful world. Show them love. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=5)