# Anyone else fearing a red wave? (Or at most, a blue ripple?) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 28, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633 "2018-10-28T14:54:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/101 "2018-10-29T20:31:52Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > In general, it is the position of the Democratic party - and one that I support entirely - that the right to vote should be as unencumbered as possible. > > You, on the other hand, have argued consistently, for years, that people who are, in your view, too stupid or lazy to secure a voter ID should be barred from voting. You are currently arguing, in another thread, that people who have committed felonies should not be allowed to vote, because, in your words, “A felon shows not just indifference to the welfare of the nation but his outright hostility to it.” > > So maybe drop the “brave defender of the principles of democracy,” shtick. Or, at least, make sure you’re facing a mirror next time you break it out. Because the only person in this thread it applies to is yourself. I don’t think that came out the way you intended - **Bricker** is the only one to whom the phrase “brave defender of the principles of democracy” applies, because you want felons to vote and one of your friends threatened suicide? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/102 "2018-10-29T20:34:07Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I don’t think that came out the way you intended - **Bricker** is the only one to whom the phrase “brave defender of the principles of democracy” applies, because you want felons to vote and one of your friends threatened suicide? > > Regards, > Shodan Well, fuck. “The only one _your admonitions_ apply to is yourself.” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/103 "2018-10-29T20:38:18Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Meh, [Politico’s prediction](https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/) (208 D, 199 R, 28 toss-ups) only varies by a few seats. Do you think they’re not being honest either? > > [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball](https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/index_show_table.php?map_title=sabato-crystal-ball-ratings) is in the same basic range too (212 D, 202 R, 21 TU). Dishonest as well? > > [The Cook Political Report](https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/cook-political-report-ratings) has it at 209 D, 196 R, 30 TU. > > Liars the lot of them? Or are they all just telling you things you don’t like to hear? A 9 to 13 seat edge isn’t exactly what I’d call a virtual tossup. If 0 = 9 or 0 = 10 or 0 = 13 in your mind, that explains much about your posting here. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/104 "2018-10-29T20:47:17Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > A “red wave” may be the best thing for the Democratic Party in the long run. > > It may force them to re-evaluate their priorities to become more relevant to the mainstream. Democrats won 66 million votes in 2016. How do they need to change to become relevant to the mainstream? They aren’t a minority party, they just are limited to the coasts and the big cities. The dems do terrible with rural whites and high school educated whites. Do you mean focusing more on economic issues and less on social issues? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/105 "2018-10-29T20:58:57Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > A 9 to 13 seat edge isn’t exactly what I’d call a virtual tossup. … By “basically a toss-up” I meant that the anticipated tipping-point seat is in the midst of the toss-up seats, rather than among the Lean D seats, for example. That’s true for RCP, Politico, Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report (and 538 it seems). I don’t think that should be used to impugn the honesty of any of those prognosticators. Your mileage may (and apparently does) vary. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/106 "2018-10-29T21:03:27Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Democrats won 66 million votes in 2016. How do they need to change to become relevant to the mainstream? They aren’t a minority party, they just are limited to the coasts and the big cities. The dems do terrible with rural whites and high school educated whites. > > Do you mean focusing more on economic issues and less on social issues? I think identity politics is a loser’s game. It’s alienating. Both R’s and D’s play the game, but I think the Democratic establishment as a whole openly embraces identity politics much more so than the Republican party does (the GOP establishment if anything is repulsed by the hijacking of their party by right-wing identity warriors). The Dems need to stop putting people in boxes. They need to stop alienating people who don’t act or believe the way that identity politics says they are supposed to. People are not robots. We are individuals. The interesting thing is that at the same time as this has been going on, the Democratic Party has become just as much of a slave to corporations as the Republicans ever were. I don’t think it used to be that way, but I don’t know, maybe it was. But, the Democrats can’t call themselves the party of the regular Joe without being hypocrites. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/107 "2018-10-29T21:05:46Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Meh, [Politico’s prediction](https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house-senate-race-ratings-and-predictions/) (208 D, 199 R, 28 toss-ups) only varies by a few seats. Do you think they’re not being honest either? Well, let’s look at this one. They don’t say exactly what they mean by ‘lean’ or ‘likely’ so we’ll apply the 538 ranges: a leaner has a 60-75% chance of going the way it’s leaning, a ‘likely’ has a 75-95% chance of doing so, and a ‘solid’ has a 95-100% chance of doing so. For computation purposes, we’ll give the leaners a 67.5% chance, the likelies an 85% chance, and the solids a 99% chance because they’re probably more clustered towards the certainty end of the distribution. Politico has 172-20-16-28-31-33-135 going from solid D to solid R respectively. We’ll count the D’s: 172 _.99 = 170.28 20_.85= 17 16\*.675= 10.8 28\*.5 = 14 31\*.325 = 10.075 33\*.15 = 4.95 135\*.01 = 1.35 Sums to 228.455 D to 206.545 R. Maybe that looks like a virtual tossup to you. > [@](#): > > Liars the lot of them? Or are they all just telling you things you don’t like to hear? Nah, you just read them in the way that makes YOU happy. Just because a notion makes you happy, doesn’t mean it’s true. ETA: FWIW, Cook came out to about the same place. I didn’t bother with Sabato; I heard his name more than often enough in two years at UVa. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/108 "2018-10-29T21:09:03Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Well, let’s look at this one. They don’t say exactly what they mean by ‘lean’ or ‘likely’ so we’ll apply the 538 ranges: a leaner has a 60-75% chance of going the way it’s leaning, a ‘likely’ has a 75-95% chance of doing so, and a ‘solid’ has a 95-100% chance of doing so. For computation purposes, we’ll give the leaners a 67.5% chance, the likelies an 85% chance, and the solids a 99% chance because they’re probably more clustered towards the certainty end of the distribution. > > Politico has 172-20-16-28-31-33-135 going from solid D to solid R respectively. We’ll count the D’s: > > 172 _.99 = 170.28 > 20_.85= 17 > 16\*.675= 10.8 > 28\*.5 = 14 > 31\*.325 = 10.075 > 33\*.15 = 4.95 > 135\*.01 = 1.35 > > Sums to 228.455 D to 206.545 R. > > Maybe that looks like a virtual tossup to you. > > Nah, you just read them in the way that makes YOU happy. Just because a notion makes you happy, doesn’t mean it’s true. 538’s prediction that the Dems have an 86% chance of taking the House doesn’t make me “happy”, but I’m capable of reading that without concluding that Nate Silver is dishonest. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/109 "2018-10-29T21:15:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > He was talking about LGBTQ civil rights. Are you arguing that it’s “democratic” if the majority (or the majority of elected representatives) successfully strips civil rights from a minority? And “anti-democracy” if the minority advocates that this shouldn’t be done? Democracy as a system does not imply any sort of specific moral or philosophical outcome. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/110 "2018-10-29T21:15:48Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > By “basically a toss-up” I meant that the anticipated tipping-point seat is in the midst of the toss-up seats, rather than among the Lean D seats, for example. That’s true for RCP, Politico, Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report (and 538 it seems). I don’t think that should be used to impugn the honesty of any of those prognosticators. Your mileage may (and apparently does) vary. Of course it does. Your mileage should too, because that’s a totally bogus definition of ‘virtual tossup.’ You’re just coming up with a definition that will keep you happy for the next eight days. Now consider eight days plus N hours. At what N will that cease to work for you? ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/111 "2018-10-29T21:18:17Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > I think identity politics is a loser’s game. It’s alienating. Both R’s and D’s play the game, but I think the Democratic establishment as a whole openly embraces identity politics much more so than the Republican party does (the GOP establishment if anything is repulsed by the hijacking of their party by right-wing identity warriors). Republicans: Hey, let’s fuck up some gay people! Democrats: Maybe lets not? Republicans: STOP PLAYING IDENTITY POLITICS! Incidentally, y[ou recently described me as “disordered.”](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21271883&postcount=34) Does that count as putting people in boxes? In what why do I need to show you “love” to get you to not slander me like that? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/112 "2018-10-29T21:20:56Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > 538’s prediction that the Dems have an 86% chance of taking the House doesn’t make me “happy”, but I’m capable of reading that without concluding that Nate Silver is dishonest. Well, nobody else is forecasting a virtual tossup by any reasonable definition. And the battle for the House is being fought on increasingly red territory as we get closer to Election Day, as the GOP takes money from seats that used to be tossups, and throws the money at seats that were regarded as solid just days ago. So yes, if RCP is saying it’s a virtual tossup, they’re fooling themselves and their readers. Or maybe **you’re** the one who’s **interpreting** what’s on their site as a virtual tossup, in which case **you’re** the one who’s fooling **your** self. That will only hold up for eight days and N hours, for a fairly small integer N. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/113 "2018-10-29T21:27:58Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Republicans: Hey, let’s fuck up some gay people! > > Democrats: Maybe lets not? > > Republicans: STOP PLAYING IDENTITY POLITICS!? That hasn’t been my observation. > [@Miller](#): > > Incidentally, y[ou recently described me as “disordered.”](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21271883&postcount=34) Does that count as putting people in boxes? In what why do I need to show you “love” to get you to not slander me like that? I did not describe you as being disordered. If that’s the way you took my statement, then you are putting _yourself_ in a box. You are so much more than a sex act. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/114 "2018-10-29T21:37:37Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > I did not describe you as being disordered. If that’s the way you took my statement, then you are putting _yourself_ in a box. You are so much more than a sex act. God what hateful bullshit. No different from calling being black, or Jewish, “disordered”, but saying “you’re so much more than a skin color/religion” in defense when someone calls you out. Your religious beliefs do not give you a pass for spreading hate. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/115 "2018-10-29T21:40:39Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > God what hateful bullshit. No different from calling being black, or Jewish, “disordered”, but saying “you’re so much more than a skin color/religion” in defense when someone calls you out. That is absurd. How can you equate a sex act with skin color? One is a human act, one is an immutable genetic characteristic. A human act can be rightly ordered or disordered. A genetic characteristic cannot be ordered at all. It simply is. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/116 "2018-10-29T21:42:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Your religious beliefs do not give you a pass for spreading hate. I am neither asking for a pass nor spreading hate. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/117 "2018-10-29T21:49:05Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > I am neither asking for a pass nor spreading hate. If you’re calling a consensual adult activity that harms no one “disordered”, then you’re spreading hate, just as calling, say, following a Jewish custom “disordered” would be spreading hate. ---
**Author:** ![EscAlaMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/escalamike/32/4177_2.png) [@EscAlaMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EscAlaMike)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/118 "2018-10-29T21:52:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If you’re calling a consensual adult activity that harms no one “disordered”, then you’re spreading hate, just as calling, say, following a Jewish custom “disordered” would be spreading hate. “harms no one” is your opinion. You have strange qualifications for what constitutes “hate”. Can I make any moral claims that differ from yours without “spreading hate”? ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/119 "2018-10-29T21:54:36Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > That hasn’t been my observation. No? When one city passed a local ordinance protecting some trans rights, why did Republicans feel it necessary to turn it into a national issue? When gay marriage was illegal in every state in the Union, why did Republicans push so hard for DOMA? When Democrats tried to make it possible for every American citizen to serve their country in the armed forces, why did Republicans fight so hard against it? This has been how Republicans have treated gay people literally my whole life. I was three when they pushed [the Briggs Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Briggs_Initiative), which would have banned gay people from being teachers. What did gay people ever do to deserve this treatment from Republicans? Why is it a bad thing that the Democrats, finally, tried to do something to help us? > [@](#): > > I did not describe you as being disordered. If that’s the way you took my statement, then you are putting _yourself_ in a box. You are so much more than a sex act. Yes, you did. I’m gay. You said homosexuality is a disorder. Therefore, I’m disordered. That’s a box you put me into. I want to know why you’d do that. I’ve never hurt you. I’ve never expressed hate towards you, but you’re willingly to blithely say enormously insulting things about me, and about the people I love. I’m wondering what I did to deserve that? And in light of your comments here, I’m wondering why the onus is on me to convince you not to insult me like that? Why do I have to do the work to show you love to get you to stop treating me like I’m diseased? Why is that _my_ responsibility, when all I want you to do is let me live my life in peace - which is exactly what I was letting you do, until you started slandering me in public? Why didn’t “treat other people the way I want to be treated,” fail, in your specific case? ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2018, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633/120 "2018-10-29T21:59:12Z")
> [@EscAlaMike](#): > > “harms no one” is your opinion. What harm does me being gay do to you? > [@](#): > > You have strange qualifications for what constitutes “hate”. Insulting and slandering people is a fairly standard definition of “hate.” > [@](#): > > Can I make any moral claims that differ from yours without “spreading hate”? Of course you can. But some “moral claims” are inherently hateful. “Blacks are inherently less moral than white people,” is both a moral claim, and a hateful claim. So is “homosexuality is disordered.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-fearing-a-red-wave-or-at-most-a-blue-ripple/823633.md?page=7)