# Anyone else feel like they're being taken on a roller coaster? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 8, 2020, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337 "2020-04-08T11:24:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/21 "2020-04-08T18:53:37Z")
You have no idea if that’s true. It’s certainly possible but we have zero clue about how exactly immunity is spreading through the community. We have little idea how seasonal this virus might be. These are decnt concerns for the health authorities to be worried about when we do start back to life but it’s not a lock we’re getting multiple waves of death if we start too fast. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/22 "2020-04-08T19:52:29Z")
Personally, no roller-coaster - more of a sinking ship. We’ll see how much remains floating in a few months. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/23 "2020-04-08T20:02:53Z")
I live in West LA and i was at my local Starbucks located inside of a Ralphs. Its a half block from Reagan Hospital and the UCLA Medical Center. Three groups of female nurses entered not wearing masks, not distanced and chatting happily amongst themselves. If they felt comfortable doing this and with the lack of many deaths here then I have to feel that we in my community have lucked out and the worst is behind us. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/24 "2020-04-08T20:09:06Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > I live in West LA and i was at my local Starbucks located inside of a Ralphs. Its a half block from Reagan Hospital and the UCLA Medical Center. Three groups of female nurses entered not wearing masks, not distanced and chatting happily amongst themselves. If they felt comfortable doing this and with the lack of many deaths here then I have to feel that we in my community have lucked out and the worst is behind us. Um… [Trainee doctors at Tokyo hospital infected with coronavirus after attending a party](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/07/national/science-health/18-trainee-doctors-keio-university-hospital-tokyo-coronavirus/#.Xo4ujnJ7mCg) Medical professionals can be as stupid as the rest of us. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/25 "2020-04-08T20:18:21Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > Um… > > [Trainee doctors at Tokyo hospital infected with coronavirus after attending a party](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/07/national/science-health/18-trainee-doctors-keio-university-hospital-tokyo-coronavirus/#.Xo4ujnJ7mCg) > > Medical professionals can be as stupid as the rest of us. Good point. I bought a mask today (mandatory in LA starting friday when outside) and I intend to wear it. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2020, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/26 "2020-04-08T20:51:11Z")
> [@The\_Chao\_Goes\_Mu](#): > > I was under the impression, perhaps falsely, that while flattening the curve does space out infections so as not to overwhelm the health system, it would also have the added benefit of giving people a greater chance of survival should they get infected. If the system isn’t overwhelmed then there are more medical resources available to treat people. It can eliminate or mitigate the agonizing decision many doctors have had to make regarding who gets aggressive care and who doesn’t. Preventing the collapse of the medical system is important, because that means fewer people will die, yes, but that “fewer” will still be a lot. It’s hard to get a good estimate of what percentage of people who get this will die from it, but even optimistic estimates are scary. If you look at the world of meters site linked above, we see that currently in the US, deaths are about 3.4% of confirmed cases. For the whole world, it’s running about 5.8%. We know both numbers probably aren’t accurate; we know testing, particularly in the US, has been severely lagging, but we also have reports that the number of deaths is being under-counted. But even if we assume that 3.4% number is off by a factor of 10, 0.34% dying is still a lot of people, 340,000 if 100 million people, less than 1/3 of the US population, gets it. And I think that 0.34% number is likely to be optimistic. You can look at other countries, and see what their known fatality rate is. Germany is 1.9%; Canada is 2.2%; Ireland is 3.8%. Are they all off by a factor of 5 to 10? Singapore and Iceland are probably the best indicators of what the “true” mortality rate is, both their rates are about 0.37%, which is close to that 1/10th estimate. But then we get into the “Statistics of small numbers” problem, so it’s hard to judge how much weight we should give these numbers. But I think it’s clear that the true fatality rate will likely be in that range, 0.37% or higher. It’s very unlikely to be smaller. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/27 "2020-04-09T01:57:53Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Singapore and Iceland are probably the best indicators of what the “true” mortality rate is, both their rates are about 0.37%, which is close to that 1/10th estimate. But then we get into the “Statistics of small numbers” problem, so it’s hard to judge how much weight we should give these numbers. More than that - that is the ratio between total cases and deaths. It is an invalid estimate whilst the epidemic is in progress and there is a two to three week lag between diagnosis and death. Serious cases spend about 10 days in ICU alone. Singapore’s recovered to death rate is about 1.5%. That is of course subject to all manner of lags as well, so is also unreliable. Iceland has almost identical numbers. The Diamond Princess is also about 1.5%, but still has 90 cases unresolved, 10 of them serious. So we might expect the death rate to rise still further. Of course the demographics there skew things. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/28 "2020-04-09T02:07:19Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > I live in West LA and i was at my local Starbucks located inside of a Ralphs. Its a half block from Reagan Hospital and the UCLA Medical Center. Three groups of female nurses entered Starbucks is still open where you are?? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/29 "2020-04-09T02:30:06Z")
Starbucks will be open to welcome the Four Horsemen. “What name do you want on the order?” Stranger ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/30 "2020-04-09T12:01:21Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > I live in West LA and i was at my local Starbucks located inside of a Ralphs. Its a half block from Reagan Hospital and the UCLA Medical Center. Three groups of female nurses entered not wearing masks, not distanced and chatting happily amongst themselves. If they felt comfortable doing this and with the lack of many deaths here then I have to feel that we in my community have lucked out and the worst is behind us. Maybe they’ve been exposed and don’t give a fuck. Maybe they’ve had it and have recovered and don’t give a fuck. Maybe they’re COVID19 deniers. My daughter is a nurse, working in a big hospital. Her coworkers run the gamut. Wearing scrubs doesn’t mean you know shit from shinola. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/31 "2020-04-09T16:15:16Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > Maybe they’ve been exposed and don’t give a fuck. Maybe they’ve had it and have recovered and don’t give a fuck. Maybe they’re COVID19 deniers. > > My daughter is a nurse, working in a big hospital. Her coworkers run the gamut. Wearing scrubs doesn’t mean you know shit from shinola. Hey I may not know shinola but I do know Jack Shit! ---
**Author:** ![Themenin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ee59a6/32.png) [@Themenin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Themenin)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/32 "2020-04-12T23:06:42Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > I live in West LA and i was at my local Starbucks located inside of a Ralphs. Its a half block from Reagan Hospital and the UCLA Medical Center. Three groups of female nurses entered not wearing masks, not distanced and chatting happily amongst themselves. If they felt comfortable doing this and with the lack of many deaths here then I have to feel that we in my community have lucked out and the worst is behind us. It just hasn’t reached you yet. Stock upon supplies and beer, there’s no unfortunately reason to think LA will be spared… ---
**Author:** ![carrps](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carrps/32/2957_2.png) [@carrps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carrps)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337/33 "2020-04-12T23:27:01Z")
Here’s an animated graph of covid-19 cases and deaths in California by country: > **[Updated: See how California’s battle against the coronavirus is progressing —...](https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241845421.html)** > > if("undefined"==typeof... Watch that spike grow in L.A. County! Of course, they’ve opened up a lot more testing sites in the last week or so. So, it might be a case of more people getting diagnosed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-else-feel-like-theyre-being-taken-on-a-roller-coaster/851337.md?page=1)