You have no idea if that’s true. It’s certainly possible but we have zero clue about how exactly immunity is spreading through the community. We have little idea how seasonal this virus might be. These are decnt concerns for the health authorities to be worried about when we do start back to life but it’s not a lock we’re getting multiple waves of death if we start too fast.
Personally, no roller-coaster - more of a sinking ship. We’ll see how much remains floating in a few months.
I live in West LA and i was at my local Starbucks located inside of a Ralphs. Its a half block from Reagan Hospital and the UCLA Medical Center. Three groups of female nurses entered not wearing masks, not distanced and chatting happily amongst themselves. If they felt comfortable doing this and with the lack of many deaths here then I have to feel that we in my community have lucked out and the worst is behind us.
Um…
Trainee doctors at Tokyo hospital infected with coronavirus after attending a party
Medical professionals can be as stupid as the rest of us.
Good point. I bought a mask today (mandatory in LA starting friday when outside) and I intend to wear it.
Preventing the collapse of the medical system is important, because that means fewer people will die, yes, but that “fewer” will still be a lot.
It’s hard to get a good estimate of what percentage of people who get this will die from it, but even optimistic estimates are scary.
If you look at the world of meters site linked above, we see that currently in the US, deaths are about 3.4% of confirmed cases. For the whole world, it’s running about 5.8%. We know both numbers probably aren’t accurate; we know testing, particularly in the US, has been severely lagging, but we also have reports that the number of deaths is being under-counted.
But even if we assume that 3.4% number is off by a factor of 10, 0.34% dying is still a lot of people, 340,000 if 100 million people, less than 1/3 of the US population, gets it.
And I think that 0.34% number is likely to be optimistic. You can look at other countries, and see what their known fatality rate is. Germany is 1.9%; Canada is 2.2%; Ireland is 3.8%. Are they all off by a factor of 5 to 10?
Singapore and Iceland are probably the best indicators of what the “true” mortality rate is, both their rates are about 0.37%, which is close to that 1/10th estimate. But then we get into the “Statistics of small numbers” problem, so it’s hard to judge how much weight we should give these numbers.
But I think it’s clear that the true fatality rate will likely be in that range, 0.37% or higher. It’s very unlikely to be smaller.
More than that - that is the ratio between total cases and deaths. It is an invalid estimate whilst the epidemic is in progress and there is a two to three week lag between diagnosis and death. Serious cases spend about 10 days in ICU alone.
Singapore’s recovered to death rate is about 1.5%. That is of course subject to all manner of lags as well, so is also unreliable. Iceland has almost identical numbers.
The Diamond Princess is also about 1.5%, but still has 90 cases unresolved, 10 of them serious. So we might expect the death rate to rise still further. Of course the demographics there skew things.
Starbucks is still open where you are??
Starbucks will be open to welcome the Four Horsemen. “What name do you want on the order?”
Stranger
Maybe they’ve been exposed and don’t give a fuck. Maybe they’ve had it and have recovered and don’t give a fuck. Maybe they’re COVID19 deniers.
My daughter is a nurse, working in a big hospital. Her coworkers run the gamut. Wearing scrubs doesn’t mean you know shit from shinola.
Hey I may not know shinola but I do know Jack Shit!
It just hasn’t reached you yet.
Stock upon supplies and beer, there’s no unfortunately reason to think LA will be spared…
Here’s an animated graph of covid-19 cases and deaths in California by country:
Watch that spike grow in L.A. County! Of course, they’ve opened up a lot more testing sites in the last week or so. So, it might be a case of more people getting diagnosed.