# Anyone else's BS-o-meter going off? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 10, 2006, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159 "2006-08-10T14:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/61 "2006-08-11T16:06:11Z")
[QUOTE=Lute Skywatcher] Then you’re not thinking enough:[list=#]The latest drop in the price of oil was blamed on fewer people flying.[li]Duhbya is an oil man and I’m sure still has friends in the business.Don’t forget the huge oil lobby.[/list]Do you really believe that Duhbya would turn his back on his friends and the oil lobby just to make points with the public?[/li][/QUOTE] Oh, I’m thinking it through. It’s a matter of priorities. If there’s an effect on oil prices it’ll be negligable and just a blip…a temporary setback to already outrageously obscene profit margins. Bush, et al is feeling the heat politically. That’s the true crisis. Business partners can be appeased. ---
**Author:** ![PunditLisa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/4af34b/32.png) [@PunditLisa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PunditLisa)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/62 "2006-08-11T16:27:21Z")
[QUOTE=jjimm] Allegedly the same thing happened before 9/11, but news of where that paper trail led has gone totally quiet. Surely there are people shorting various stocks on a daily basis? [/QUOTE] Of course they are, but there are models that will pinpoint _unusual_ activity. In other words, if there’s a mathematically significant spike in trading absent a legitimate reason, such as earnings release, the filing of a class action lawsuit, or even a hurricane. I’m not so sure that people weren’t caught post-9/11. I’m not saying that there were definitely arrests or the freezing of assets, but I can’t be certain that there weren’t either. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/63 "2006-08-11T16:32:34Z")
[QUOTE=Lute Skywatcher] [In 1987, liquid explosives concealed in a drink bottle and detonated remotely are thought to have destroyed a South Korean passenger plane, killing all 115 on board.](http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20876,20095757-28737,00.html) [/QUOTE] Using “thought to have” in an assertion completely discounts it in my view. ---
**Author:** ![Push\_You\_Down](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/push_you_down/32/9095_2.png) [@Push\_You\_Down](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Push_You_Down)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/64 "2006-08-11T16:47:23Z")
[QUOTE=Lute Skywatcher] [In 1987, liquid explosives concealed in a drink bottle and detonated remotely are thought to have destroyed a South Korean passenger plane, killing all 115 on board.](http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20876,20095757-28737,00.html) [/QUOTE] ..ther’s also [THIS case](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Airlines_Flight_434) where only one man was killed and the plane suffered little damage. Apparently liquid bombs are not an EXACT science. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/65 "2006-08-11T17:16:06Z")
[QUOTE=Lute Skywatcher] [In 1987, liquid explosives concealed in a drink bottle and detonated remotely are thought to have destroyed a South Korean passenger plane, killing all 115 on board.](http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20876,20095757-28737,00.html) [/QUOTE] He showed airplanes that had cargo door blown off due to improper latching, huge holes for some other reasons and they landed. Point is it is not that easy to bring one down. His claim was that it would have to hit something crucial in guidence of the gas tanks. A hole in the wall of a plane makes generally doesn’t bring them down. It would be ugly but not l;ikely trade centerish. Ut was not me saying it. It was the ABC expert and pilot. It made sense to me. If one plane had came down ,supposedly due to liquid bomb. and a bunch had landed with holes in fusilage , I am not in dispute. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/66 "2006-08-11T17:47:05Z")
[Breaking news](http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20099061-601,00.html) > [@](#): > > “GO now!” The message came from Pakistan and it rattled the British intelligence agents who intercepted it. > The urgent direction was sent early this week to a group of young British Muslims who had been plotting one of the world’s biggest-ever terrorist attacks. > > Intelligence officials who had been monitoring the group thought they had plenty of time to keep watching them and gathering evidence before safely rounding them up early enough to stop them carrying out their scheme. > > But the message from radicals in Pakistan saying “do the attacks now” changed everything, and when it was passed to higher authorities in London on Wednesday night, it sent a jolt through the top levels of the British Government. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/67 "2006-08-11T19:18:27Z")
[QUOTE=PunditLisa] Acc to hubby, the stock broker, there were significant shorts (where you make money if the stock falls) placed on airlines last evening. Someone either knew that the arrests were coming OR knew that airlines would be bombed today and were trying to make a buck off of it. The good news is that you can’t play the stock market sans a paper trail. [/QUOTE] What about the continuing rise in the price of oil before this was announced? That alone may have prompted an increase in shorting as the end of the summer travel season comes around. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/68 "2006-08-11T19:20:32Z")
[Scotland Yard says says the plan was to blow up planes over US cities, including New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Miami, Boston and Chicago.](http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20097604-661,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/69 "2006-08-11T19:26:52Z")
Blair doesn’t seem to have a whole lot to gain from more Bush fellating, and Londoners took the subway bombings in stride (already being more acclimated to acts of terrorism than ourselves) so I can’t think of a good reason for the UK govt. to trump up something petty to score populist points in their own country. What we do with it, here, well, that’s a whole 'nuther thang. My BS-o-meter is pretty much redundant now when it comes to the Bush Admin., as they have zero credibility with me. I take the developments in the UK as reasonable evidence officials here aren’t blowing smoke up our asses, though I expect our esteemed leaders to milk this to dessication as Nov. approaches. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/70 "2006-08-14T18:45:45Z")
[QUOTE=Inigo Montoya] Here’s the [subject](http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/08/10/us.security/index.html). And here’s what triggered my alarm. and the Coop-day-grass: So…we’re in the middle of busting a plot “intended to be mass murder on an unimaginable scale” and we’re going public with what amounts to an official warning to the blokes involved with the plot? And we’re announcing what we’re doing to thwart further attempts? OK, I know this is Pit-bound, but until then this is a POLL: Anyone else think this is a bogus announcement? [/QUOTE] I guess your answer is NO, you appear to be the only one to think this is bogus. I’m sure another anti-Bush thread will come along soon though 😃 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/71 "2006-08-14T20:52:26Z")
Um no…my own BS meter is not going off over this. Perhaps your’s is a bit out of tune…or maybe it goes off reguardless? 😉 -XT ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/72 "2006-08-15T00:33:55Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Um no…my own BS meter is not going off over this. [/quote] Yeah, but you also think Bush is doing a heckuva job and that the Iraq war is not an unmitigated fiasco, so your BS meter is clearly busted… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/73 "2006-08-15T02:17:10Z")
[QUOTE=rjung] Yeah, but you also think Bush is doing a heckuva job and that the Iraq war is not an unmitigated fiasco, so your BS meter is clearly busted… [/QUOTE] Um…cite? I’d like to see some quotes of me saying Bush is doing a heck of a job there rjung. -XT ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/74 "2006-08-15T16:51:51Z")
On this matter, my BS-o-meter is at dead zero. Firstly, the world does not revolove around the US election cycle. Secondly, if you wanted to time this in order to affect the midterm elections, this would be just about the worst time to pick. Thirdly, you can’t just nab a few suspects, as the OP suggests, and keep it out of the press. Think about it: It does nothing to help Lieberman. We’ve known for weeks that he was in trouble and risked losing the primary, so if you wanted to do a little terror scare, then you’d release this info about 1 week before the primary, not 2-3 days after it. And if you wanted to influence the November elections, you’d wait until October when the campaigning was in full swing, and people were actually thinking about whom they would be voting for. As it is, this story will not be in the news come October. What we’ll be reading about then will be… the war in Iraq. And that that’s exaclty what the Pubs don’t want people to be thinking about as the election approaches. Remember all the predictions in 2004 that Bush was going spring ObL at the last minute to wrap up the election? Never happened. Remember all the predictions that the terror alert would be raised a few days before the eelction? Never happened. Here’s what I’d look out for in the next month or so, and what would set my BS-o-metter off: There is no sign of improvement in Iraq, but Bush announces to start bringing the troops home. Six months ago I thought this was a sure bet, but I’m beginning to think even that ploy won’t be tried-- things just too out of control for Bush to pull back now. As for the idea that we should just grab these guys and keep it quiet-- how, exactly, do you do that? The police raid a Muslim neighborhood and arrest ~20 young, ethinc Pakistani men, and you think the press isn’t goning to figure out what it’s all about? No way you can keep a lid on this. ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/75 "2006-08-15T17:46:22Z")
[QUOTE=Inigo Montoya] Of course they’re 'fascists," they part of an axis. :rolleyes: I want to go crawl into a hole for the next 300 years… [/QUOTE] What’s the problem? It’s a perfectly accurate description. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/76 "2006-08-15T23:32:30Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Um…cite? I’d like to see some quotes of me saying Bush is doing a heck of a job there rjung. [/quote] My goof, sorry. I was thinking of **Evil One.** Or **John Mace.** Or **Shodan.** Or **Starving Artist.** Or **Clothahump.** Or… heck, it’s so hard to tell all you sheep apart… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/77 "2006-08-16T01:03:53Z")
Now that some time has passed, the truth is coming out, and if it is not an outright fabrication, it is ceratainly an [over-statement to say that the plotters were on the verge of inflicting a devastating attack upon America:](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14320452/): > [@](#): > > In contrast to previous reports, one senior British official suggested an attack was not imminent, saying the suspects had not yet purchased any airline tickets. In fact, some did not even have passports. While it was ceratainly effective at whipping up enough hysteria to blow the Iraq civil war off the front pages for a few days, it now appears that this so called plot is being used for political effect with the intent of scaring the voters. And judging by the initial reaction to the OP, I would say that it worked rather well. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/78 "2006-08-16T01:40:18Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] Now that some time has passed, the truth is coming out, and if it is not an outright fabrication, it is ceratainly an over-statement to say that the plotters were on the verge of inflicting a devastating attack upon America [/QUOTE] You, um, got all that out of the cite you posted? Granted there was some question over timing but no where do I see in your cite where they are saying there was no threat…only that the British wanted to let things roll on for a while longer while the US (the focus of the alleged attacks mind you) didn’t want to take the risk. > [@](#): > > LONDON - NBC News has learned that U.S. and British authorities had a significant disagreement over when to move in on the suspects in the alleged plot to bring down trans-Atlantic airliners bound for the United States. > > British officials knowledgeable about the case said British police were planning to continue to run surveillance for at least another week to try to obtain more evidence, while American officials pressured them to arrest the suspects sooner. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the case. So, they wanted to try for another week…and you take this to mean there really was not threat, or that the threat was ‘an over-statement’?? How do you get that from your own cite? Are you able to read between the lines or something? I assume from your post you think this is especially significant (for some reason): > [@](#): > > In contrast to previous reports, one senior British official suggested an attack was not imminent, saying the suspects had not yet purchased any airline tickets. In fact, some did not even have passports. But the next paragraph goes on (from the same source): > [@](#): > > The sources did say, however, that police believe one U.K.-based suspect was ready to conduct a “dry run.” British authorities had wanted to let him go forward with part of the plan, but the Americans balked. When you are getting to the ‘dry run’ stage you are pretty much ready to roll on a given plan. In addition, say things changed and they decided that instead of a ‘dry run’ they changed their mind and went live? Terrorists don’t HAVE to slavishly follow a given plan you know. 😛 > [@](#): > > Monitoring of Rauf, in particular, apparently played a critical role, revealing that the plotters had tested the explosive liquid mixture they planned to use at a location outside Britain. NBC News has previously reported that the explosive mixture was tested in Pakistan. The source said the suspects in Britain had obtained at least some of the materials for the explosive but had not yet actually prepared or mixed it. Which would be wise as, from what I’ve read elsewhere, such a mixture would be highly unstable…and likely to blow up at a less than opportune moment. I really don’t see your cite as clearly showing that there was no threat, or that the threat was ‘overstated’. -XT ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/79 "2006-08-16T01:48:39Z")
There’s an excellent analysis of this on the PBS New Hour today, and there are a few guys who explain the different policies of the US and Britain. A lot of it has to do with the different legal systems, but in a nutshell the US’s policy is to arrest the guys as soon as possible, while the Brits like to let things play out a bit more. The Brits can hold someone for something like 28 days w/o charging them while in the US you get 48 hours. I really recomend that anyone intersted watch this segment. You probably can access it over the web if you miss it on TV-- PBS is pretty good at archiving this stuff. ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159/80 "2006-08-16T01:52:39Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] Now that some time has passed, the truth is coming out, and if it is not an outright fabrication, it is ceratainly an [over-statement to say that the plotters were on the verge of inflicting a devastating attack upon America:](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14320452/):While it was ceratainly effective at whipping up enough hysteria to blow the Iraq civil war off the front pages for a few days, it now appears that this so called plot is being used for political effect with the intent of scaring the voters. And judging by the initial reaction to the OP, I would say that it worked rather well. [/QUOTE] It’s downright scary how you guys see plots and conspiracies everywhere you look. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/anyone-elses-bs-o-meter-going-off/368159.md?page=5)