# Apollo 11's chance of failure **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 15, 2014, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552 "2014-09-15T13:01:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/21 "2014-09-16T02:59:34Z")
I’m reading _Rocket Men_ at the moment, and Armstrong himself gave the chances of a successful launch at 90%, but the actual landing on the Moon at only 50%. ---
**Author:** ![buddy431](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6a8cbe/32.png) [@buddy431](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddy431)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/22 "2014-09-16T03:07:46Z")
> [@gaffa](#): > > I’m reading _Rocket Men_ at the moment, and Armstrong himself gave the chances of a successful launch at 90%, but the actual landing on the Moon at only 50%. Sure, but he’s just pulling numbers out of his ass, same as everyone else. ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/23 "2014-09-16T03:13:28Z")
> [@buddy431](#): > > Sure, but he’s just pulling numbers out of his ass, same as everyone else. Sure, but it was his ass on the line. And Mikes ass and Buzzs ass. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/24 "2014-09-16T03:22:40Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > From what is that derived? [Here](http://moleseyhill.com/blog/2009/09/22/bayesian-probability-of-success/) is a fairly simple explanation of the application of a Bayesian estimator. Note that this isn’t the method used for more rigorous reliability estimates, which assess component and subsystem reliabilty (generally based upon accelerated lift testing or similarity to components of known reliabilty) but rather just assesses top level probability of success (or failure) based upon a small data set using thr known posterior reliability to estimate future probability. However, a cursory look at launch vehicle demonstrated reliability shows this to be surprisingly accurate. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/25 "2014-09-16T03:38:43Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > From what is that derived? I don’t know precisely how it’s derived, but it’s clear how it works. The formula assumes a probability of 1/2 for the n=0 case. As n increases, the formula folds in the (n-f)/n, (or more simply, s/n) factor with increasing weight. For large n, it converges to the same s/n that **davidm** used. It gives virtually the same answer in the case of the Shuttle (~98% vs. ~98.5%), but a pretty different answer for the Saturn V. Rockets don’t launch that often so it makes sense to use the better estimator. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/26 "2014-09-16T14:21:08Z")
> [@gaffa](#): > > Sure, but it was his ass on the line. And Mikes ass and Buzzs ass. Armstrong was more familiar with those risks than practically anyone, based on his near-fatal experience flying the LM simulator (another case of his superior skill and calmness in a crisis impressing NASA brass). ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/27 "2014-09-16T14:35:22Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Armstrong was more familiar with those risks than practically anyone, based on his near-fatal experience flying the LM simulator (another case of his superior skill and calmness in a crisis impressing NASA brass). And Armstrong wasn’t prone to exaggeration and boasting, either. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/28 "2014-09-16T15:43:02Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > [Here](http://moleseyhill.com/blog/2009/09/22/bayesian-probability-of-success/) is a fairly simple explanation of the application of a Bayesian estimator. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![D18](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@D18](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D18)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/29 "2014-09-16T16:06:38Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > And Armstrong wasn’t prone to exaggeration and boasting, either. My irony detectors aren’t working well this morning. Are you saying he was or wasn’t an exaggerating braggart? ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/30 "2014-09-16T16:10:51Z")
> [@D18](#): > > My irony detectors aren’t working well this morning. Are you saying he was or wasn’t an exaggerating braggart? Hell, the man was practically a recluse after the moon landing. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/31 "2014-09-16T16:10:56Z")
He certainly was not. Armstrong was diffident, practically shy, but had an ability to get along with and be respected by practically anyone. One more reason he was chosen to be first on the moon was his similarity to Lindbergh in that respect. One story has it that he was the only commander in the astronaut corps willing to have Aldrin on his crew. ---
**Author:** ![D18](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@D18](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D18)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/32 "2014-09-16T16:16:43Z")
**carnivorousplant** and **ElvisL1ves** , that’s what I thought, but I often learn on the dope that what I thought sometimes ain’t! What was the issue with Aldrin? ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/33 "2014-09-16T16:32:52Z")
> [@D18](#): > > What was the issue with Aldrin? I’d be interested in hearing that, too. He was very competitive and slugged a guy for telling him that he lied about the moon landings. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/34 "2014-09-16T16:50:27Z")
IIRC from various readings, just not a team player - extremely smart (he practically invented the math of orbital rendezvous), but egotistical and brittle, and contemptuous of those who didn’t share his Catholic faith. He maneuvered to get the plan revised to make him the first on the moon, not Armstrong, and NASA brass had to step in to shut him up (on the basis that the LM door hinged the other way). Aldrin is open about descending into alcoholism after the end of the program, although he got it under control later, and in fairness has generally aged well, but probably still has not gotten over his jealousy of Armstrong, whom he considered less worthy of the honor than himself. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/35 "2014-09-16T17:03:54Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Aldrin is open about descending into alcoholism after the end of the program, although he got it under control later, and in fairness has generally aged well, but probably still has not gotten over his jealousy of Armstrong, whom he considered less worthy of the honor than himself. He said in an autobiography that having been a test pilot and walked on the Moon, it was as Alexander looked about him and saw that there were no more worlds to conquer. He had pushed himself as a pilot and astronaut, and suddenly had no goal. He did say he had the best pick up line. Take her for a walk at night, point at the Moon. “You see that? I’ve been there.” 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/36 "2014-09-16T17:21:17Z")
Tom Hanks’ HBO series _From the Earth to the Moon_, which come to think of it is the source material for most of what I just posted, showed Aldrin’s first act on the moon being the taking of Communion. He had brought a small goblet, a wafer, and vial of wine in his personal gear for the purpose, and looked down on Armstrong for not sharing the experience. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/37 "2014-09-16T17:53:22Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > He had brought a small goblet, a wafer, and vial of wine in his personal gear for the purpose, and looked down on Armstrong for not sharing the experience. Ticking off your driver in this situation is not a Good Idea. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2014, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/38 "2014-09-17T05:06:40Z")
Jumping back in now to say and agree with what others said, that Armstrong was so humble and modest, downplaying his achievement almost painfully, especially when compared with Buzz. Buzz was a brilliant man, yes, but he also had quite the ego. How does the saying go – fighter pilots and surgeons think they’re Gods. Something like that. They have strong egos, but Armstrong was very humble. ---
**Author:** ![RedSwinglineOne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a9adbd/32.png) [@RedSwinglineOne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedSwinglineOne)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2014, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/39 "2014-09-17T22:10:31Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > … He was very competitive and slugged a guy for telling him that he lied about the moon landings. If anybody hasn’t seen the video, [it’s worth a watch.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptn5RE2I-k) I’m not a violent person, but some people need a punch in the mouth. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2014, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/40 "2014-09-17T23:09:22Z")
> [@RedSwinglineOne](#): > > If anybody hasn’t seen the video, [it’s worth a watch.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wptn5RE2I-k) > > I’m not a violent person, but some people need a punch in the mouth. I’ve seen versions of that that consisted of just the last part, right before Aldrin punched him. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the entire video before. It just highlights what an assclown Sibrel is. Thank you for linking to it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552.md?page=3)