# Apollo 11's chance of failure **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 15, 2014, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552 "2014-09-15T13:01:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2014, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/41 "2014-09-17T23:51:51Z")
Asshole? He’s suicidal asshole. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/42 "2014-09-18T00:38:58Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Asshole? He’s suicidal asshole. > :rolleyes: Ass **clown** , not ass **hole**. Different things. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/43 "2014-09-18T00:47:38Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Tom Hanks’ HBO series _From the Earth to the Moon_, which come to think of it is the source material for most of what I just posted, showed Aldrin’s first act on the moon being the taking of Communion. He had brought a small goblet, a wafer, and vial of wine in his personal gear for the purpose, and looked down on Armstrong for not sharing the experience. [Here’s the landing scene from that episode](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ssw5aJyrk), and I don’t really see Armstrong reacting negatively in any way to Aldrin’s taking Communion. And I don’t think it was wine, it was holy water maybe? The entire landing scene is really great, but [here’s it starting from the Communion scene](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ssw5aJyrk&feature=player_detailpage#t=191) (by the way, it was Bryan Cranston from _Breaking Bad_ playing Aldrin…) ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/44 "2014-09-18T00:48:50Z")
If the explosion on Apollo 13 had happened on the way _back_ from the moon those guys would have been dead meat as the LM would have already been ditched. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/45 "2014-09-18T01:09:26Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > If the explosion on Apollo 13 had happened on the way _back_ from the moon those guys would have been dead meat as the LM would have already been ditched. It was amazing how they saved that mission. I lived through the whole thing and, up until the moment the open parachutes appeared on TV screens, it was doubtful that they’d make it back alive. It was thought that the chutes or the chute mechanism might have been damaged by the explosion. ---
**Author:** ![Heracles](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heracles/32/487_2.png) [@Heracles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heracles)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/46 "2014-09-18T04:35:15Z")
> [@buddy431](#): > > Sure, but he’s just **pulling numbers out of his ass** , same as everyone else. [QUOTE=Stranger On A Train] (…) but rather just assesses top level probability of success (or failure) based upon a small data set **using thr known posterior** reliability to estimate future probability. (…) [/QUOTE] (bolding mine) I sense a trend here. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/47 "2014-09-18T05:01:22Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > [Here’s the landing scene from that episode](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ssw5aJyrk), and I don’t really see Armstrong reacting negatively in any way to Aldrin’s taking Communion. And I don’t think it was wine, it was holy water maybe? The entire landing scene is really great, but [here’s it starting from the Communion scene](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1ssw5aJyrk&feature=player_detailpage#t=191) (by the way, it was Bryan Cranston from _Breaking Bad_ playing Aldrin…) Maybe Aldrin later said he saw disapproval in Armstrong’s face, while Armstrong later said he just didn’t want to partake but was okay with it – and that’s why it was portrayed that way in the episode. Just a guess from what I’ve gathered over the years of what those two are like. ---
**Author:** ![chacoguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/50afbb/32.png) [@chacoguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chacoguy)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/48 "2014-09-18T05:08:29Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > He said in an autobiography that having been a test pilot and walked on the Moon, it was as Alexander looked about him and saw that there were no more worlds to conquer. He had pushed himself as a pilot and astronaut, and suddenly had no goal. > > He did say he had the best pick up line. Take her for a walk at night, point at the Moon. “You see that? I’ve been there.” 🙂 Buzz Aldrin has a cock a mile long. He’s also the model for the MTV logo and that award they do. ---
**Author:** ![Kamino\_Neko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kamino_neko/32/34_2.png) [@Kamino\_Neko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kamino_Neko)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/49 "2014-09-18T05:50:23Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > And I don’t think it was wine, it was holy water maybe? I can’t watch the clip, but he certainly didn’t use holy water. Holy water has no place in communion. If he didn’t bring wine, he skipped that portion altogether. If he did do it, it was with wine - cut with (non-sanctified) water. Someone devout enough to want the sacrament on the moon would certainly want to follow the correct forms, and the Blood of Christ always starts as wine (which has to meet certain specifications). ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/50 "2014-09-18T12:34:40Z")
> [@Kamino\_Neko](#): > > I can’t watch the clip, but he certainly didn’t use holy water. Holy water has no place in communion. If he didn’t bring wine, he skipped that portion altogether. If he did do it, it was with wine - cut with (non-sanctified) water. > > Someone devout enough to want the sacrament on the moon would certainly want to follow the correct forms, and the Blood of Christ always starts as wine (which has to meet certain specifications). In the autobiography, he said that a Priest blessed a tiny vial of wine for him. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/51 "2014-09-18T13:36:17Z")
> [@Hail\_Ants](#): > > (by the way, it was Bryan Cranston from _Breaking Bad_ playing Aldrin…) And Tony Goldwyn, President Fitzgerald Grant on “Scandal”, playing Armstrong. ---
**Author:** ![Ranger\_Jeff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranger_jeff/32/2065_2.png) [@Ranger\_Jeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranger_Jeff)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/52 "2014-09-18T14:53:03Z")
FTR, in Chuck Yeager’s autobiography “Yeager”, Chuck is pretty disparaging of Armstrong’s personality. Their paths crossed at Edwards when Yeager had the Test Pilot school and Armstrong was flying the X-15. I think it was mostly just a major personality clash, what with Yeager being a West Virginian high school grad started out as a seat of the pants test pilot and Armstrong being a more formally trained college educated test pilot. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/53 "2014-09-18T15:04:33Z")
Sheer jealousy. Yeager is one of the great pilots ever, but he’s also one of the world’s biggest pricks. Armstrong was chosen in no small part because he would make a great hero. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/54 "2014-09-18T17:04:16Z")
> [@Kamino\_Neko](#): > > I can’t watch the clip, but he certainly didn’t use holy water. Holy water has no place in communion. If he didn’t bring wine, he skipped that portion altogether. If he did do it, it was with wine - cut with (non-sanctified) water. > > Someone devout enough to want the sacrament on the moon would certainly want to follow the correct forms, and the Blood of Christ always starts as wine (which has to meet certain specifications). Sorry, I know nothing of Catholic ceremonies, I was just going by the fact that it looked clear. It’s subtle, but if you watch the clip they actual used CGI to make the little bit of water appear to pour as if in 1/6 gravity. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2014, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/55 "2014-09-18T23:27:47Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > He certainly was not. Armstrong was diffident, practically shy, but had an ability to get along with and be respected by practically anyone. One more reason he was chosen to be first on the moon was his similarity to Lindbergh in that respect. The similarities are actually quite remarkable. Both were superb pilots – no one in that era even came close to Lindbergh’s superb feat of navigation alone in the Spirit of St. Louis even when they had a dedicated navigator – and both were inclined to be social recluses. Armstrong’s avoidance of the public spotlight became legendary after Apollo 11. Like Lindbergh, Armstrong couldn’t totally avoid the public exposure, but he sure tried to. There’s a story about Lindbergh and his mother attending a large banquet in his honor at a millionaire’s mansion on Long Island, with New York mayor Jimmy Walker, the state governor, and 500 other guests in attendance. At one point neither Lindbergh nor his mother could be found, and a frantic search was conducted all over the estate for the guests of honor. It turned out that Lindbergh and his mother, bored and tired of socializing, had quietly left and gone home, leaving the distinguished guests to fend for themselves. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/56 "2014-09-19T01:26:03Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Yeager is one of the great pilots ever, but he’s also one of the world’s biggest pricks. I know some folks who’ve had to deal with him, and who would certainly agree. As I see it, the fact that he didn’t get along with Neil Armstrong is another feather in Armstrong’s cap. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/57 "2014-09-19T06:48:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Sheer jealousy. Yeager is one of the great pilots ever, but he’s also one of the world’s biggest pricks. > [@Xema](#): > > I know some folks who’ve had to deal with him, and who would certainly agree. It’s my wild-ass guess that Yeager may have regretted not (joining? volunteering for? going out for?) otherwise being part of the astronaut program. Not sure if he ever even tried. But the astronauts were generally loved by the public, while test pilots remained relatively unknown. I mean, Scott Crossfield, not many know of him compared to the key astronauts. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/58 "2014-09-19T13:37:26Z")
> [@Xema](#): > > As I see it, the fact that he didn’t get along with Neil Armstrong is another feather in Armstrong’s cap. That’s a nice trick. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/59 "2014-09-19T13:50:38Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > It’s my wild-ass guess that Yeager may have regretted not (joining? volunteering for? going out for?) otherwise being part of the astronaut program. Not sure if he ever even tried. He probably wasn’t even eligible (whether by formal or informal standards), not having an engineering mentality, perhaps being too old, and certainly not being a team player. Once he realized the Mercury astronauts were going to be pilots, not cargo, it was too late anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Ranger\_Jeff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranger_jeff/32/2065_2.png) [@Ranger\_Jeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranger_Jeff)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2014, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552/60 "2014-09-19T14:20:06Z")
> [@Bullitt](#): > > It’s my wild-ass guess that Yeager may have regretted not (joining? volunteering for? going out for?) otherwise being part of the astronaut program. Not sure if he ever even tried. But the astronauts were generally loved by the public, while test pilots remained relatively unknown. I mean, Scott Crossfield, not many know of him compared to the key astronauts. > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > He probably wasn’t even eligible (whether by formal or informal standards), not having an engineering mentality, perhaps being too old, and certainly not being a team player. Once he realized the Mercury astronauts were going to be pilots, not cargo, it was too late anyway. All Mercury astronaut candidates were required to have a B.S. degree. Yeager didn’t. There was certainly some sour grapes feeling on Yeager’s part. After 12 years at the top of the flight test pyramid, 7 guys appear at a press conference and all of a sudden, Yeager is history. You should read Wolfe’s [The Right Stuff.](http://www.amazon.com/The-Right-Stuff-Tom-Wolfe/dp/0553381350) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/apollo-11s-chance-of-failure/698552.md?page=4)