# App for weather alert for 40F, 15 days in advance **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [October 15, 2022, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307 "2022-10-15T22:38:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2022, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/1 "2022-10-15T22:38:27Z")
I am looking for an app that will look every hour at 15 day weather forecast for a zip code. As soon as any day in the future 15 days is predicted to have a low temperature of 40F or lower, it would alert me by a text message. It will not send me any daily messages or anything else spammy. A paid app is okay. ---
**Author:** ![dolphinboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dolphinboy/32/330_2.png) [@dolphinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dolphinboy)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/2 "2022-10-16T02:13:28Z")
Good luck! ---
**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/3 "2022-10-16T02:22:48Z")
Is it even possible to get an accurate prediction of the weather 15 days from now by looking manually at weather sites? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/4 "2022-10-16T02:30:20Z")
Not really. Most weather apps (and even the National Weather Service) only have forecasts going out for no more than about 14 days, and once you get past about 3 to 5 days in the future, forecasts aren’t particularly reliable. The mathematical models which are used for weather forecasting have become a _lot_ better in the past few decades, and near-term forecasts (again, for the upcoming few days) are usually quite accurate. But, the error range on weather forecasts increases dramatically as one attempts to forecast further out into the future, and the forecast for 15 days in the future is subject to much revision as that date grows closer, due to changing weather patterns in the intervening days. If a weather forecast tells me that, two days from now, the temperature will drop below 40F, I can usually be pretty sure that that’ll be close to the truth. But, at two weeks’ distance, even if the forecast says it’ll be below 40F, the actual weather on that date has a pretty strong probability of being significantly different from that, when the time finally comes. As this page on the web site for NOAA (the parent agency of the U.S.'s National Weather Service) notes: > [@](#): > > A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time. > **[How Reliable Are Weather Forecasts? | NOAA SciJinks – All About Weather](https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/)** > > It all depends on how far in advance you’re trying to forecast! ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/5 "2022-10-16T03:19:28Z")
Also, in looking at several of my weather apps, below is how many days out they publish weather forecasts: - Weather Channel: 14 days - AccuWeather: 14 days - Weather Underground: 10 days - WeatherNation: 7 days - Weatherbug: 10 days The forecast pages from the National Weather Service ([weather.gov](http://weather.gov)) go out to 7 days in the future. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/6 "2022-10-16T03:25:33Z")
> [@Ponderoid](#): > > Is it even possible to get an accurate prediction of the weather 15 days from now by looking manually at weather sites? I do not care about accuracy. Just want an alert if it is predicted even inaccurately. > [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Not really. Most weather apps (and even the National Weather Service) only have forecasts going out for no more than about 14 days, and once you get past about 3 to 5 days in the future, forecasts aren’t particularly reliable. 14 days is fine too. Again, I do not care if the prediction is reliable or not. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/7 "2022-10-16T03:29:38Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > 14 days is fine too. Again, I do not care if the prediction is reliable or not. Fair enough. Unfortunately, I’m unaware of the ability to set up the kind of custom alert/alarm that you’re hoping for, with any of the major weather apps. My apps can be set up to send me push notifications when the NWS issues a weather advisory for a particular location (e.g., tornado watch, freeze warning, etc.), but those are typically issued no more than 12 hours or so ahead of the anticipated weather, which is, obviously, far less that what you are hoping for. And, all they are doing is notifying me of a NWS advisory having been issued; those notifications aren’t being triggered by any piece of data being generated by the app or its forecasts. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/8 "2022-10-16T03:41:08Z")
The app on my phone has 28 day temperature and rain forecasts for all Australian places but, as posters have said, only 14 day forecasts for overseas cities. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/9 "2022-10-16T03:48:27Z")
Sounds like a job for a simple web scraper. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/10 "2022-10-16T04:08:29Z")
Yeah, I could write a web app for you to get an email or somesuch when NOAA says you’re forecast to drop below 40F within the next week (that’s about all they predict with that resolution). I don’t want to write it, but you could do it yourself or find someone else to do it. You could probably get it done for fairly cheap if you just wanted a basic notification. But as has been mentioned, if you’re really wanting 15 days notice, you’re going to get a lot of false positives and false negatives from the service you use. Heck, even NOAA has spotty accuracy past 5 days on its good weeks. ---
**Author:** ![dougrb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/76d3ee/32.png) [@dougrb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dougrb)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2022, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/app-for-weather-alert-for-40f-15-days-in-advance/973307/11 "2022-10-16T22:03:07Z")
It’s made up after 7 days. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/wkDvqQKGgDA/maxresdefault.jpg "RMR: Seven Day Forecast") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkDvqQKGgDA)