Holy shit, dude, brotherhood in political science. I am very fond of Putnam’s work. FYI, my NYC metro reading right now is The Logic of Political Survival by BDM, Smith, Siverson, and Morrow. It’s a fantastic read, though big hardcovers during rush hour is a drag. [sub]I wrote my MA paper with BDM, btw, and Smith was my game theory teacher.[/sub]
Re: Downs, I have never so much as cracked it open, honestly. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that he is in error, so much as there are a lot more high-tech tools and more interesting results in more modern literature. I am honestly surprised that people are still teaching it in rational choice-oriented classes. If you really want a good grounding in the method and don’t mind a first-rate slog, then there is no substitute for Austen-Smith and Banks’ Positive Political Theory I. Another amazing book, but even I wouldn’t read it on the subway.
The reason most gambling is stupid is not because of your chances of winning, its the value of the bet.
If you have a one dollar stake and your chances of winning are 1000:1, you might expect your payout to be $1000.
If instead your payout is $100, then its not a particularly good value bet.
Now if you look at most state lotteries, your ratio of win probability to payout is terrible, you can look at either winning the smaller prizes, or the jackpot, these are extremely poor value bets.
It is very hard for folk to get their heads around this.