# Are anti-missile missile systems total BullS...t? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [July 6, 2014, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469 "2014-07-06T09:30:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![bardos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bardos/32/1069_2.png) [@bardos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bardos)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/21 "2014-07-06T19:31:38Z")
> [@sbunny8](#): > > Now ask yourself if it’s worth spending 3 trillion dollars to build a laser which is easily defeated by $800 worth of chrome plating. I’ve already spent the three trillion, but never mind, I’m moving on to plan B ---
**Author:** ![TSBG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/77aa72/32.png) [@TSBG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TSBG)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/22 "2014-07-06T20:37:14Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Everyone with a smartphone, which is roughly 80% of the country. Soldiers included. Can they get the NY Times on their smartphones? [http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&\_r=0](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) Key quote: “Critics say explosions in the sky are hailed as evidence of success when the blasts in most cases simply represent interceptor warheads blowing up.” ---
**Author:** ![bardos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bardos/32/1069_2.png) [@bardos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bardos)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/23 "2014-07-06T20:43:16Z")
> [@TSBG](#): > > Can they get the NY Times on their smartphones? > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&\_r=0](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) > > Key quote: > > “Critics say explosions in the sky are hailed as evidence of success when the blasts in most cases simply represent interceptor warheads blowing up.” And that’s another thing… somewhere someone is making a hell of a lot of money in the development of these systems ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/24 "2014-07-06T20:55:12Z")
Are we talking only about ICBMs, or ballistic missiles in general? [The THAAD system](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense) has had a number of successes and is currently deployed. It is a theater weapon rather than a strategic one, but it is an anti-missile system, and is not total BS. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/25 "2014-07-06T21:35:41Z")
> [@TSBG](#): > > Can they get the NY Times on their smartphones? > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&\_r=0](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/world/middleeast/israels-iron-dome-system-is-at-center-of-debate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) > > Key quote: > > “Critics say explosions in the sky are hailed as evidence of success when the blasts in most cases simply represent interceptor warheads blowing up.” Then show me the damage to the houses where the missile hit. The fact of the matter is, towns protected by Iron Dome systems have suffered significantly less harm - to person and property - than in past conflicts. Somebody is doing something right. ---
**Author:** ![TSBG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/77aa72/32.png) [@TSBG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TSBG)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/26 "2014-07-06T21:38:32Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Then show me the damage to the houses where the missile hit. > > The fact of the matter is, towns protected by Iron Dome systems have suffered significantly less harm - to person and property - than in past conflicts. Somebody is doing something right. According to whom? You haven’t presented any actual evidence that Iron Dome works as claimed. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/27 "2014-07-06T22:08:47Z")
According to the people who actually live there. Do you think that a missile can hit an apartment building and the government can just hide it? Maybe in America, but not here. My point is, the government’s story seems plausible, and I have seen no data that contradicts it. If you have anything that states otherwise, please let me know. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/28 "2014-07-06T22:24:06Z")
Also, below is a link to DoD’s independent testing agency, which reports directly to Congress. In the second bullet, it’s annual report says that four of the last five tests of the Aegis BMD system were successful. This is the same organization that has been extremely critical of the F-35 program, so they tend to have pretty good credibility. [http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2013/pdf/bmds/2013aegisbmd.pdf](http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/FY2013/pdf/bmds/2013aegisbmd.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/29 "2014-07-06T22:37:49Z")
> [@sbunny8](#): > > Space based laser systems sound great at first until you look closer. First, if you could make the laser magically hover 500 km above Memphis TN it would be in perfect position to shoot down incoming ICBMs over the continental US, but in reality satellites zip around the globe in orbits so you’d need more than one to ensure that at least one of them is always within range. Does it have to be 500km? What’s wrong with 35,786? ---
**Author:** ![Battle\_Pope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@Battle\_Pope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Battle_Pope)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/30 "2014-07-06T22:52:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The last I heard, the only test results which were being made public all needed to have homing beacons installed in the target missiles, and then they stopped releasing test results altogether. Which says to me that the actual success rate is something more like 0%. Sounds a lot like the tests of the M247 York in the early '80s. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M247\_Sergeant\_York](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M247_Sergeant_York) > [@](#): > > The tests were monitored by the Pentagon’s new Operational Test and Evaluation Office (OT&E), mandated by Congress in 1983 to serve as an independent watchdog.[21] The tests were carried out late in 1984. > > The results were abysmal. Unable to hit drones moving even in a straight line, the tests were later relaxed to hovering ones. The radar proved unable to lock even to this target, as the return was too small. The testers then started adding radar reflectors to the drone to address this “problem”, eventually having to add four. > > Easterbrook, still covering the ongoing debacle, described this as being similar to demonstrating the abilities of a bloodhound by having it find a man standing alone in the middle of an empty parking lot, covered with steaks.[22] The system now tracked the drone, and after firing a lengthy burst of shells the drone was knocked off target. As it flew out of control, the range safety officer had it destroyed by remote control. This was interpreted by the press as an attempt to “fake” the results, describing it as “sophomoric deceits”.[23] From that point on, every test success was written off as faked.[24] ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/31 "2014-07-06T23:07:19Z")
**Chronos** may be confused on this issue because testing of the GMD system was suspended for six years because of the bad test results. The reason no test data was released after 2008 is that there were no tests until two weeks ago (that one was successful). ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/32 "2014-07-06T23:27:55Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Has the Patriot system ever actually shot down a missile, either? Yeah, yeah, we all heard about them shooting down Scuds during the first Gulf War, but from what I understand, most or all of those “successes” were just spontaneous failures of the Scuds, a notoriously unreliable missile. > > And I don’t know how widely implemented they are yet, but there are actually systems to scan shipping containers entering the country for nuclear material and/or shielding for nuclear material. We’re not totally defenseless on that front. Me and you have had this exchange before, the answer is yes, unequivocally during the second Gulf War and “who knows, probably a few” during the first Gulf War. [Link](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=15895981). ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2014, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/33 "2014-07-06T23:38:28Z")
Ah, that link above was wrong: [link](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15895981&postcount=17). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2014, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/34 "2014-07-07T01:10:16Z")
OK, blame that on bad memory on my part, then. It’s still definitely true that they weren’t remotely as successful as originally claimed, in any event. ---
**Author:** ![bardos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bardos/32/1069_2.png) [@bardos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bardos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2014, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/35 "2014-07-09T06:18:45Z")
So, what percentage of missiles is iron dome intercepting at the moment? ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2014, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/36 "2014-07-09T06:44:16Z")
> [@bardos](#): > > So, what percentage of missiles is iron dome intercepting at the moment? > [@](#): > > Israel under attack: Over 100 rockets fired in one day > Rocket alert sirens blare across the country - including Be’er Sheva, Tel Aviv, Binyamin and the Sharon Plains. > A total of 117 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at Israel on Tuesday. The Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted a total of 29 rockets. 29 /117 is 25 per cent. (remember, no attempt is made to intercept rockets which the radar determines to be heading towards open fields or nonpopulated areas ) The quote is from the website of one of Israel’s largest newspapers > **[Israel under attack: Over 100 rockets fired in one day](https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4539418,00.html)** > > Rocket alert sirens blare across the country - including Be'er Sheva, Tel Aviv, Binyamin and the Sharon Plains. You can choose to believe that it’s all propaganda and “BullS\*\*t”. (with two capital letters?). But those of us who live in the war zone know better. ---
**Author:** ![bardos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bardos/32/1069_2.png) [@bardos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bardos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2014, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/37 "2014-07-09T06:50:54Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > 29 /117 is 25 per cent. > (remember, no attempt is made to intercept rockets which the radar determines to be heading towards open fields or nonpopulated areas ) > The quote is from the website of one of Israel’s largest newspapers > [http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4539418,00.html](http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4539418,00.html) > You can choose to believe that it’s all propaganda and “BullS\*\*t”. (with two capital letters?). > But those of us who live in the war zone know better. I ask a question about missiles and you attack my grammar? I sense emotional involvement. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2014, 8:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/38 "2014-07-09T08:58:04Z")
> [@bardos](#): > > So, what percentage of missiles is iron dome intercepting at the moment? So far there have been no civilians killed or injured, and AFAIK property damage has amounted to one parked car. ---
**Author:** ![Chihuahua](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/dec6dc/32.png) [@Chihuahua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chihuahua)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2014, 9:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/39 "2014-07-09T09:38:53Z")
I am utterly confused by the debate here. Especially the parts where Bardos completely throws out the government’s claims as likely propaganda (who else are you going to get data from?) and Chronos insistence that classified information = 0% success. Also, questions such as “ever actually shot down a missile, either?” WTF is up with that? It is very frustrating to see arguments taken to these kinds of extremes. I’ve heard conspiracy theorists say the Patriots never intercepted a single missile, ever. Anything that includes the word “ever” should immediately set off anyone’s bullshit detector. I’ve also heard people say that they worked damn near always (again, “always” is another bullshit detector word). The truth is somewhere between these two extremes. The bottom line is that I personally know people who watched Patriot batteries save their fourth-point-of-contact, so any claim that they had a zero or near-zero success rate is baloney. ---
**Author:** ![bardos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bardos/32/1069_2.png) [@bardos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bardos)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2014, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469/40 "2014-07-09T10:55:13Z")
> [@Chihuahua](#): > > I am utterly confused by the debate here. Especially the parts where Bardos completely throws out the government’s claims as likely propaganda (who else are you going to get data from?) and Chronos insistence that classified information = 0% success. Also, questions such as “ever actually shot down a missile, either?” WTF is up with that? It is very frustrating to see arguments taken to these kinds of extremes. > > I’ve heard conspiracy theorists say the Patriots never intercepted a single missile, ever. Anything that includes the word “ever” should immediately set off anyone’s bullshit detector. I’ve also heard people say that they worked damn near always (again, “always” is another bullshit detector word). The truth is somewhere between these two extremes. > > The bottom line is that I personally know people who watched Patriot batteries save their fourth-point-of-contact, so any claim that they had a zero or near-zero success rate is baloney. I agree with you on 0% and 100% claims. However, I _have_ learnt to distrust most governments pronouncements as self-serving propaganda. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-anti-missile-missile-systems-total-bulls-t/692469.md?page=3)