# Are electric cars here to stay? I don't think so. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 8, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382 "2012-11-08T18:03:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/1 "2012-11-08T18:03:58Z")
I think Mitt Romney was wrong to oppose the auto bailout, but he was right that electric cars have been a bad investment. As I see it, all the signs are pointing to the electric car companies eventually collapsing. First, there’s A123, the biggest supplier of batteries for electric cars. They’ve gone bankrupt, and the only question is whether they will be sold to an American company (Johnson Controls) or a Chinese one (Wanxiang Group). The 2 big electric car companies are Fisker and Tesla. Fisker is clearly doomed. They’ve been losing money since Day 1, and have no realistic chance of being profitable soon. They keep having production dispruptions, and the Department of Energy has frozen their federal loan because they can’t meet their production requirements. And now, there’s a chance they they may lose the only source of batteries for their cars. (A123 wants the bankruptcy judge to cancel all their contracts. Including Fisker’s.) Fisker will be gone within a year. They might not even make it to the end of _this_ year. Now let’s look at Tesla. At first glance, things seem to be going OK for them. They’re still not profitable, but they have 13,000 reservations for their cars (as of September), and the company’s CEO insists that the company will be making money by the end of the year, and that they’re on target to increase production to 400 cars per week by the end of the year. This seems overly optimistic to me, but let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that Tesla meets these targets. I see trouble coming just around the corner. 400 cars per week is about 20,000 cars per year. Even if we assume modest growth in reservations, they’ll have all the orders filled by the end of next year. What happens then? Electric cars are hard to sell. Every major automaker has found this out. Unless interest in electric cars explodes, and does so _quickly_, Tesla is going to be making cars it can’t sell by the end of 2013. That means they’ll be losing money again. There’s a certain amount of pent-up demand for electric cars, but all the evidence suggests that it’s really not that big a market. General Motors loses money selling the Chevy Volt, but they have other profitable cars to make up the loss. Tesla is a one-trick pony. If they can’t make money on their only procduct, they’re done. I give Tesla about 2-3 years before they go bankrupt. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/2 "2012-11-08T18:14:48Z")
My concern is the environmental cost of the batteries. Disposal of regular batteries is already a problem. There’s lead and other nasty heavy metals in them. Imagine if electric cars got popular. Also, the environmental cost to create the electricity for the cars. Electric cars just aren’t as Green as people assume. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/3 "2012-11-08T18:19:36Z")
If Tesla’s cars perform like they say, they’ll sell as many as they can produce. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/4 "2012-11-08T18:27:27Z")
Well, Tesla has 13,000 orders _at that price_. Getting the design right and the assembly line up and running is the expensive, difficult part. Now they’re in production, and they can start dropping the price a little. Second, I think you’re wrong to frame this as “Electric car companies aren’t very good, therefore electric cars are a bad idea.” Toyota’s Prius is wildly popular, absurdly profitable, and a good transitional step. In a couple years, they’re planning on selling them as plug-in hybrids standard, which is the next transitional step, because it encourages the development of plug-in stations, technology, and infrastructure. A decade or so after that, I think there will be enough infrastructure in densely-populated areas to support electric cars that aren’t super-luxury like Tesla. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/5 "2012-11-08T19:55:15Z")
I think you are right…as long as gasoline sells for less than about $5.00/gallon, the market for electric cars will remain quite small. And, as Thomas Edison (Detroit Electric), Henry J. Kaiser (Kaiser-Frazier), Preston Tucker (Tucker), and John Z. DeLorean (DMC) all found out, you cannot be a small car company in a land of giants. Even SAAB (made about 120,000 cars/year) was too small to survive. Tesla’s best hope is to merge with a larger car firm, possibly BMW or Mazda. Even Elon Musk’s millions are not enough to keep Tesla going. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/6 "2012-11-08T20:17:41Z")
Lot’s of car manufacturers have gone out of business. And we still have cars. ---
**Author:** ![wheresmymind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/91b2a8/32.png) [@wheresmymind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wheresmymind)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/7 "2012-11-08T22:00:20Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > My concern is the environmental cost of the batteries. Disposal of regular batteries is already a problem. There’s lead and other nasty heavy metals in them. > > Imagine if electric cars got popular. Also, the environmental cost to create the electricity for the cars. Electric cars just aren’t as Green as people assume. I imagine the batteries will be reclaimed and recycled just as most current car batteries are. AA batteries get thrown out because they’re small, cheap, and common enough that taking them to a recycling center just isn’t worth it. A battery powerful enough to power an automobile will have enough scrap value that just chucking it in a landfill would be ludicrous. I suspect the environmental impact of battery disposal will be less than that of used engine oil disposal (batteries will be changed infrequently, and virtually no one will change them at home). As to the environmental cost to create the electricity, a kilowatt of power from a coal-fired power plant is less polluting than a kilowatt of power from a typicaly internal combustion engine. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/8 "2012-11-08T22:04:33Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > If Tesla’s cars perform like they say, they’ll sell as many as they can produce. Not when even the entry-level model is over $57,000. They’re still cars for rich people. The Chevy Volt is significantly cheaper (in the $40s, I believe), and it still doesn’t sell well. And the Volt is a plug-in hybrid, which means there is no range anxiety, even if you’re way out in the boonies somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/9 "2012-11-08T22:20:10Z")
Single purpose companies that sell only electric cars are there to get bought out by one of the big companies. I think electric cars are on the cusp of (or at least within sight of) mainstream utility. The biggest problem with ECs are short range, and limited roadside recharging. Personally, I don’t think roadside recharging is ever going to be the norm for ECs nor will technology improvements ever make roadside recharging even remotely as convenient as refilling with gas. Extending range, OTOH, will make ECs useful enough to compete directly with ICE cars. Give me a 400 mile range, and I don’t think I’d ever notice the range limitation. At worst, I’d plan to recharge at my destination, which is hardly any more trouble than planning to refuel at my destination. At that point, it’s price and utility, there’s no reason to believe that an EC can NEVER compete on price, they’re simply not competitive today. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/10 "2012-11-08T22:28:35Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > General Motors loses money selling the Chevy Volt, but they have other profitable cars to make up the loss. In this case (not strictly an electric car), the problem is price. I know a number of folks (including myself) who would love to buy a Volt, but right now, even with state and federal incentives, the price differential is much higher than the lifetime savings on gas, even assuming the batteries would never have to be replaced. Get the price a lot closer to $25,000, and build in some guarantee about the battery life or replacement cost, and I think these things would be flying off the lot. (Alternatively, dramatically raise the mileage on the lease option. It’s affordable already, but the low lease mileage limits basically preclude using the car as a commuter, which is the whole point.) Since they’re already losing money on each one, the question becomes: can they make it up in volume/economies of scale? I suspect for the moment, the answer is no, but I doubt it’ll stay that way. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/11 "2012-11-08T22:50:31Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Not when even the entry-level model is over $57,000. They’re still cars for rich people. The Chevy Volt is significantly cheaper (in the $40s, I believe), and it still doesn’t sell well. And the Volt is a plug-in hybrid, which means there is no range anxiety, even if you’re way out in the boonies somewhere. Yes, but there are a lot of rich people. Lexus, BMW, Mercedes, all sell $60,000 cars all day every day. With a 300 mile range, you’re not going to get much anxiety. ---
**Author:** ![Nunzio\_Tavulari](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Nunzio\_Tavulari](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nunzio_Tavulari)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/12 "2012-11-09T08:15:58Z")
> [@wheresmymind](#): > > A battery powerful enough to power an automobile will have enough scrap value that just chucking it in a landfill would be ludicrous. I question this statement. Nobody has ever given me money for an old automobile battery. Rather, I have to pay $10 to the recycler to take it off my hands. That’s why you see so many of them tossed into the brush on the side of the road. Are they paying you for your old tires and motor oil as well? ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/13 "2012-11-09T08:50:43Z")
> [@Nunzio\_Tavulari](#): > > I question this statement. Nobody has ever given me money for an old automobile battery. Rather, I have to pay $10 to the recycler to take it off my hands. That’s why you see so many of them tossed into the brush on the side of the road. Are they paying you for your old tires and motor oil as well? > **[Lead–acid battery | Recycling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93acid_battery#Recycling)** > > According to the Battery Council, an industry group, lead–acid battery recycling is one of the most successful recycling programs in the world. In the United States 99% of all battery lead was recycled between 2014 and 2018.\[dubious – discuss\]\[better source needed\] However, documents of the U.S. Environmental Protection Administration, since 1982, have indicated rates varying between 60% and 95%. > Lead is highly toxic to humans, and recycling it can result in pollution and contamination of people... > [@](#): > > Lead–acid battery recycling is one of the most successful recycling programs in the world. In the United States 97% of all battery lead was recycled between 1997 and 2001 Lead-acid batteries have definite scrap value - reclaiming Lead from them is significantly easier/cheaper than refining it from ore - probably by at least an order of magnitude. I have no idea why you’re seeing people dumping them - they’re a revenue item for waste recycling centres and people make money from scavenging them and selling to scrap dealers. ---
**Author:** ![Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Throatwarbler_Mangrove)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/14 "2012-11-09T12:44:14Z")
Which electric car uses lead acid batteries again? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/15 "2012-11-09T13:18:37Z")
Just a note for reference: you may want to see [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=667039), for an ongoing discussion about this subject in GD. Will a company selling only EV’s make it? I don’t know. Tesla is a niche company now selling a specialty product. That said the Model S seats 5 adults and 2 kids, carries a bunch of stuff, and can [outperform the 500 HP twin turbo BMW M5](http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/10/tesla-model-s-squares-off-against-bmw-m5-in-drag-race/). There are a fair number of people spending $50K plus on high end mini-vans and a modest number spending more, sometimes much more, on cars that perform like that. This competes well in both segments and let’s face it, not too many of those people are driving on family road trips … they are flying to the ski lodge or to the island resort. That’s a different question than electric vehicles growing as a market segment. In fact the plug-in segment is experiencing [very healthy growth](http://green.autoblog.com/2012/11/06/over-6-000-plug-in-sales-lead-october-alt-fuel-sales-rise/), much better than hybrids did when they were first introduced. More and more of the major automakers are joining the bandwagon: Ford has just started selling their plug-in hybrids and others have plans to enter the market soon. No doubt however both plug-ins and hybrids are going to stay a relatively small portion of the market until gas goes up a bit more and/or battery costs decrease a bit more. The average consumer needs to see their upfront investment recouped by decreased running costs within five, maybe even within three years, before they’ll bite. As to environmental benefits - [this](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00532.x/full) is the most pessimistic appraisal out there which does not consider any recycling or repurposing of the batteries and which does not consider the PHEV option (which from my POV includes the Volt as well as the plug-in Prius and the Ford Energi line). Even under those limitations EV total lifecycle environmental costs were a plus in all scenarios except one that included all coal powered plants. There is also little doubt that there will be solid recycling/repurposing program for these batteries. The biggest limit to developing these programs may be if these batteries end up lasting as long as the EV longer than assumed in that article, as manufacturers suggest they will - you are not going to have a recycling/repurposing industry emerge until you have a sizable and dependable waste stream. I can’t say which companies will make it big and which will fail, which battery makers will prevail (besides LGChem) and which will be bought out for pennies on the dollar, or even how quickly battery costs will decrease and when those lines of increasing gas costs and decreasing battery costs will cross. But the plug-in segment is in fact growing moderately quickly and they are here to stay. ---
**Author:** ![Cicero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cicero/32/3594_2.png) [@Cicero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cicero)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/16 "2012-11-09T13:28:06Z")
Instead of saying “I don’t think so” you should say “Negative”. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/17 "2012-11-09T14:11:33Z")
Let us praise the really profitable petrol-based car manufacturers. Like GM. And Chrysler. Errrr ---
**Author:** ![Sateryn76](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e4f/32.png) [@Sateryn76](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sateryn76)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/18 "2012-11-09T14:52:21Z")
So here’s a question - imagine a world with a $22,000 electric car that has taken over a good margin of market share in, say, the Northeast. There are still thousands without power even now - if you had an electric car, what would happen to you? Gas is being rationed, but at least it’s available, and be brought in over the roads. If there’s no electricity, there’s no car for you. And how about Spring storm season in the Midwest? My cousin lives in a neighborhood that regularly loses power in storms, sometimes for over a day. Sure hope she doesn’t have to go to work. Earthquakes in the West? I think electricity will fail because of the relatively regular uncertainly of the supply. We still lose power often enough that I couldn’t take the chance. This money might be better spent continuing work on things like hydrogen “gel pack” batteries and the like. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/19 "2012-11-09T14:55:11Z")
> [@Nunzio\_Tavulari](#): > > I question this statement. Nobody has ever given me money for an old automobile battery. Rather, I have to pay $10 to the recycler to take it off my hands. That’s why you see so many of them tossed into the brush on the side of the road. Are they paying you for your old tires and motor oil as well? 1. in addition to the response already posted, most if not all auto parts retailers will take your old battery when you buy a new one (core deposit + refund.) 2. EVs don’t use lead-acid batteries for propulsion anymore. NiMH and LiIon/LiPoly are the dominant chemistries. > [@Baron Greenback](#): > > Let us praise the really profitable petrol-based car manufacturers. Like GM. And Chrysler. Errrr Chrysler’s been turning in consecutive profitable quarters since about Q1-Q2 2011. They’re basically keeping FIAT afloat right now. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/20 "2012-11-09T15:20:55Z")
Sateryn76, that very issue was at the forefront of my mind during the aftermath. On the one hand, when you’re out of electricity, you’re in a hard way with an Electric Car. On the other hand, the gas shortage hit everybody, and folks with electricity (there are lots and lots of them by now) could recharge at home (or recharge a friend’s car) instead of sitting in line for hours to get topped off. Overall, I’d say ECs are a net negative in terms of disaster performance, but diversification could be a positive. A household with one EC and one ICE-C could choose the power source that works best for them in times of trouble. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382.md?page=2)