# Are electric cars here to stay? I don't think so. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 8, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382 "2012-11-08T18:03:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2012, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/41 "2012-11-15T20:10:49Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Lot’s of car manufacturers have gone out of business. And we still have cars. Especially in the early days. Back then, cars were expensive, they were unreliable, so you needed to be practically a mechanic to drive one, there was little infrastructure supporting them - either gas stations or roads - and there was a simpler alternative technology which was proven through hundreds of years and which was practically self-navigating - the horse. Clearly there was no future for the automobile. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/42 "2012-11-15T20:16:37Z")
> [@Enright3](#): > > That may be, but for now “A study of pollution in 34 Chinese cities has found that the electricity generated by power stations to drive electric vehicles leads to more fine particle emissions than petrol-powered transport.” That may be true in China, but it need not be universally so. I’ll wager that the emissions controls used in China’s coal-fired power plants are nothing like the controls used in US coal-fired power plants. Moreover, not all US power plants are coal-fired; hydro and nuclear provide a significant share. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2012, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/43 "2012-11-15T20:22:55Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I’m of the opinion that advanced battery technology (allowing 350-400 mile ranges) is still some years away. Top end Tesla Model S is supposed to be 300 mile (practical about 265) range. They could, of course, just put a larger battery pack in it. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2012, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/44 "2012-11-15T20:41:27Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Top end Tesla Model S is supposed to be 300 mile (practical about 265) range. > > They could, of course, just put a larger battery pack in it. That’s how Tesla got that kind of range in the first place. There’s a reason the top Model S weighs 4,800 lbs. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2012, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/45 "2012-11-15T20:45:22Z")
And I still want one. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/46 "2012-11-16T03:43:13Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > the Leaf and Focus start in the high 30s, but qualify for tax credits. [projected sales of Leaf’s are down](http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121115/AUTO0104/211150461/1361/Nissan-CEO-abandons--12-electric-vehicle-sales-target). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/47 "2012-11-16T05:37:49Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > You’ll be waiting a long time. The Tesla Model that won MotorTrend Car of the Year costs about $90,000. Fisker has made some noises about designing a car that costs ~$30,000, but given the dire straits they’re in I wouldn’t hold my breath. Even if they had the money (and time), they’re just not that competant. As far as I know, Tesla isn’t planning any cars that are not aimed at the high end of the market. [FWIW](http://rumors.automobilemag.com/report-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-pontificates-about-future-ev-products-184685.html): > [@](#): > > Musk hopes to introduce new products to expand Tesla’s reach while the technology’s costs naturally come down. “I think we’ve got some really good products coming down the pipeline,” he said. “We’ve got the Model X, which is really trying to apply some major innovation to the SUV and Minivan segment, and we’ve got our third-generation car, which is a mass-market electric car–that’s actually the one that I’m most keen to bring to the market.” > [@Diceman continuing](#): > > Also, there’s no reason to believe the price of gas will rise significantly from where it is now, at least not in the forseeable future. Quite the contrary: thanks to shale oil, fracking, and other new technologies, the US is expected to outpace Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer in about 5 years. Don’t expect to hear much about “Peak Oil” in the future. Sort of. By [2020](http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-15/is-it-time-for-the-u-dot-s-dot-to-join-opec) (not five years but close enough) the United States is expected to take the top spot. And expected to fall off from there by five years after. > [@](#): > > The U.S. will pump 11.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2020 and 10.9 million in 2025, according to the IEA. … The U.S. will be the world’s top producer for about five years, starting in 2020. Sometime after that, U.S. production will slip behind Saudi Arabia’s again You do understand how oil works though? It’s a global market. What matters is global supply matched to global demand. We’ve had low global demand as a consequence of global economic slow downs. And that demand is expected to stay off for a bit longer. Still one at least hopes that the world’s economies will all stabilize and improve over the next several years, and as they do demand will jump. Expecting gas prices to do anything other than do a herky jerky dance upwards seems to be a bit unrealistic. Especially given that they’ve overall increased even as more US capacity has come on line in a weak global demand context. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/48 "2012-11-16T13:28:10Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > [projected sales of Leaf’s are down](http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121115/AUTO0104/211150461/1361/Nissan-CEO-abandons--12-electric-vehicle-sales-target). I was going to post about this article. Last year, the Leaf sold about 10,000 units. Nissan was hoping to double that in 2012, but the Leaf’s sales are actually down this year. It’s hard to escape the reality that even well-established major automakers (General Motors, Ford, Nissan) are having trouble selling electric cars. > [@](#): > > Musk hopes to introduce new products to expand Tesla’s reach while the technology’s costs naturally come down. “I think we’ve got some really good products coming down the pipeline,” he said. “We’ve got the Model X, which is really trying to apply some major innovation to the SUV and Minivan segment, and we’ve got our third-generation car, which is a mass-market electric car–that’s actually the one that I’m most keen to bring to the market.” From what I’ve read, the Model X is going to be even bigger & heavier than the Model S, so it’ll most likely be another rich guy’s supercar (superminivan?) I think the most relevant part of that article is at the end: > [@](#): > > With that said, the truck and supercar’s future (and the saleability of the Model X) do depend on the ability of the Model S to make money. So if you’re hoping for a California-built, all-electric truck in your future driveway, keep your fingers crossed. Tesla still isn’t making a dime on the cars it sells. That needs to change fast, or they’re going to go broke. The experiences of the other car makers is not encouraging. You can’t pay your employees and suppliers with hype. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/49 "2012-11-16T14:25:50Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > And I still want one. K. I wasn’t making a value judgment. just responding to the “bigger battery” comment by hinting that they pretty much stuffed as much battery as they could into the car. > [@Magiver](#): > > [projected sales of Leaf’s are down](http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121115/AUTO0104/211150461/1361/Nissan-CEO-abandons--12-electric-vehicle-sales-target). And? Gas is still too cheap in North America for electric cars to appeal to many people other than those who want an electric car. > [@Diceman](#): > > I think the most relevant part of that article is at the end: > Tesla still isn’t making a dime on the cars it sells. That needs to change fast, or they’re going to go broke. The experiences of the other car makers is not encouraging. You can’t pay your employees and suppliers with hype. see, I’ve got into arguments with people on other boards about this. Most of it centers around my distaste for the despicable sentiment that Tesla is an example of how “Silicon Valley is going to show Detroit how it’s done.” Some people can’t put away their geek boners and realize that- just as you said- Tesla isn’t making money on electric cars. just like everyone else. They’ve delivered on their _technical_ promises (even though I was skeptical of a few) and don’t have the legacy baggage that established automakers do, but there’s only so long before your investors want to either start seeing profits, or see you bought out. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/50 "2012-11-16T16:51:14Z")
The Tesla comment was specifically in response to “Tesla isn’t planning any cars that are not aimed at the high end of the market.” They are planning a mass market EV (which is not Model X). Will they deliver? Who knows? I wouldn’t bet on it - either way. I strongly believe the initial growth will not be in pure BEVs but in PHEVs (or as GM prefers, EREVs). Meanwhile, as noted other times, one has to define how one will define success: compared to hybrids’ initial growth the plug-in segment is growing very well indeed. But of course hybrids, successful though they may be considered by most, are still a small portion of all vehicles sold. The big ifs for the future relate to cost of ownership in a reasonable timeframe. What will batteries cost for a reasonable part of most people’s daily commutes and what will gas cost? If you believe that batteries getting significantly less per kWh is unrealistic and or that gas prices will be stable or dropping over the moderate term (ten years say), then you believe that plug-ins will have little future. If you believe that batteries may improve and give more usable kWh per dollar and/or that gas prices will overall increase moderately significantly over the moderate term then you likely think plug-ins will increase their market share substantially. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/51 "2012-11-16T17:52:37Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The Tesla comment was specifically in response to “Tesla isn’t planning any cars that are not aimed at the high end of the market.” They are planning a mass market EV (which is not Model X). Will they deliver? Who knows? I wouldn’t bet on it - either way. I strongly believe the initial growth will not be in pure BEVs but in PHEVs (or as GM prefers, EREVs). I’m skeptical. Working in the auto industry, I know that designing and engineering a new car isn’t something you can do overnight. It takes years. And frankly, I don’t think Tesla has years. If they can’t make money, they won’t be around long enough for that promised mass-market car to ever leave the drawing board. I read this [amusingly optimistic article about Fisker](http://www.freep.com/article/20121115/BUSINESS01/311150243/Fisker-eyes-SE-Michigan-for-tech-site) yesterday. They plan to open a technical center “somewhere in the Midwest” early next year. It’s clear that they don’t even have a site picked out yet. Honestly. Do these guys even know what a tech center is, or what it does? It’s a big research & development complex. You can’t set up something like that in a couple of months. If they’re seriously going to go from nothing to open by “early next year,” then their “Technical Center” is probably going to be nothing more than a couple of guys in a rented office. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/52 "2012-11-16T19:25:12Z")
I don’t work for Tesla but I do know that they are doing a lot of new development. What I don’t know is if they are developing their own batteries, but I doubt it. I believe Panasonic will supply the battery for the new models. Conventional OEMs at least develop and manufacture their own engines. If Tesla, or any EV OEM, wants to be cost competitive and stay relavent, it makes sense for them to develop their own power plant. Unfortunately, that’s the part that requires the most capital. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/53 "2012-11-16T20:26:13Z")
Yes, they now use Panasonic as an exclusive supplier, about 7,000 Panasonic nickel-cathode lithium-ion 18650 cells per Model S. Their secret sauce (and extra cost) is the packaging. Panasonic has also taken a 2% stake in Tesla. The advantage of using a large company like Panasonic and using 18650s as their raw material is that those batteries are already commoditized. The problem, compared to the larger format cells that most other in the EV and plug-in space are using, is less expectation for future further price reduction. Neither their unpackaged batteries nor the cost of their value added packaging will be dropping much. Most experts do expect battery prices for the large format cells to drop from the current $500 upwards per kWh to under $250 within 5 to 7 years. Tesla has shown that they can do the design and bring to market part just fine. Being able to make a profit doing it remains to be seen. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2012, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/54 "2012-11-16T22:39:55Z")
**Sales for electric, plug-in cars strong in October** From The Detroit News: [http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121102/AUTO01/211020442#ixzz2CQbGC8Nv](http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121102/AUTO01/211020442#ixzz2CQbGC8Nv) > [@](#): > > Plug-in and electric vehicles had their strongest month of 2012 in October. > > Last month, the plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt had another best-ever month, selling 2,961 vehicles. In the first 10 months of the year, General Motors Co. has sold 19,309 Volts, up 286 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/55 "2012-11-17T00:04:05Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > And? Gas is still too cheap in North America for electric cars to appeal to many people other than those who want an electric car. And? Was the price of gas in North America a closely guarded secret known only to every car buyer? ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/56 "2012-11-17T03:06:39Z")
The problem with electric cars is it works really well in Asia and Europe do to theose countries are snaller than most US states. Where in the US the country is so big it take billions of government money to have charging stations on the road like gas stations. And with high debt no party is going to spend billions of government money. Than how long does it take to charge and want happance if you want to go some where but run out of battery ? Other thing electric cars are good on city streets but not fast enough on the highway.Fix this engineering problem and you be rich man. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/57 "2012-11-17T03:25:00Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > Other thing electric cars are good on city streets but not fast enough on the highway.Fix this engineering problem and you be rich man. Oh, they’re plenty fast. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/58 "2012-11-17T03:25:57Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > The problem with electric cars is it works really well in Asia and Europe do to theose countries are snaller than most US states Absolutely. The OP’s premise is incredibly US centric. Sure Fisker and Tesla might go bankrupt, but the electric car is still here to stay. Do you think Nissan, Toyota and Mitsubishi are going to stop making their electric cars even if they fail in the US market? Asia is a bigger market with more growth potential and its better suited for the product. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/59 "2012-11-17T03:30:12Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > The problem with electric cars is it works really well in Asia and Europe do to theose countries are snaller than most US states. Where in the US the country is so big it take billions of government money to have charging stations on the road like gas stations. And with high debt no party is going to spend billions of government money. > > Than how long does it take to charge and want happance if you want to go some where but run out of battery ? > > Other thing electric cars are good on city streets but not fast enough on the highway.Fix this engineering problem and you be rich man. Well that would be the point of the Volt which uses batteries to leverage distance instead of limiting it. The problem is that the Volt does better than a standard hybrid for short distances and worse than a hybrid for extended ranges. It still averages out better but it costs more. People who travel farther to work (the affluent) don’t get the big benefit it was intended for and that’s for short commutes. Luxury hybrids fit the bill better (IMO) for this buyer niche. I think this is the case of building the right car for the wrong client. GM used driving statistics for the average driver instead of the likely buyer. If they wanted a flagship car like the Corvette they should have catered more toward luxury car buyers. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2012, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382/60 "2012-11-17T03:33:54Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Oh, they’re plenty fast. They’re great on the drag strip. but after each run you have to recharge it. do you see a conflict with the performance characteristics and daily driving? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-electric-cars-here-to-stay-i-dont-think-so/640382.md?page=4)