# Are the Democrats going to get a super majority? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 31, 2009, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900 "2009-01-31T19:53:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/1 "2009-01-31T19:53:30Z")
Jake Tapper is [reporting](http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/01/judd-gregg-coul.html)that Senator Judd Gregg could be appointed to Commerce Secretary on Monday. > [@](#): > > An Obama administration official tells ABC News that Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., is now the leading candidate for Commerce Secretary and could be announced as soon as Monday. > [@](#): > > Gregg’s announcement, while making the Obama administration more bipartisan, would likely have the opposite effect on the U.S. Senate. New Hampshire’s Democratic governor John Lynch could appoint a Democrat to replace Gregg, thus delivering to Democrats their elusive 60-vote majority, empowering them to stave off Republican filibusters. A few days ago all the Republicans were basically saying that there was no way Gregg would take the job. Now it looks like he might. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/2 "2009-01-31T20:04:11Z")
538’s always cogent [take on it.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/gregg-poison-pill-for-democrats.html) > [@](#): > > I’m not sure that the Republicans are all that screwed over if Gregg leaves the Senate and a Democrat is appointed in his stead. Yes, it gets the Democrats to their magic number of 60. But 60 is an overrated, fuzzy number given that Olympia Snowe has sided with the administration on 26 of 31 roll call votes so far, and that Susan Collins, Arlen Specter, Lisa Murkowski and George Voinovich aren’t far behind her. Moreover, if the Democrats actually get the 60th seat, it will be much harder for them to play the obstructionism card in 2010 – and much easier, conversely, for the Republicans to play the divided government card. > > Now, let’s not be too contrarian here: if this happens, it is almost certainly a net gain for Democrats. But it might be relatively small one, given that: > > 1a) Gregg was voting with the Democrats reasonably often anyway; > > 1b) His replacement, conversely, would likely be someone fairly moderate who wouldn’t vote with the Democrats 100% of the time; > > 1. Gregg, who has been a pretty reliable fiscal conservative, would presumably have at least some influence shaping policy from the Commerce Department; > > 2. The perceived benefit to the Democrats from getting a 60th seat is greater than the real one, increasing the risk that they will be seen as overreaching by the time that 2010 rolls around. Bottom line: will he be good in the position? The rest may be a wash in the final analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/3 "2009-01-31T20:06:30Z")
Supposedly, he will only take it if he gets an assurance from the current governor of NH that a Republican will be chosen in his place. According to the everpresent “unnamed sources”, so take it for what it’s worth. [cite](http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/republicans-say-gregg-wont-give-dems-60-2009-01-30.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/4 "2009-01-31T20:06:40Z")
Overstated importance The GOP leadership doesn’t have the power to whip its remaining moderates into line anymore anyway - they have no retaliation to fear. Plus, there’s always a few members not present on critical votes. I can understand Gregg’s interest - it’s a chance for him to be relevant, both in policymaking and in the politics of deepening-blue NH. ---
**Author:** ![haymarketmartyr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/35a633/32.png) [@haymarketmartyr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/haymarketmartyr)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2009, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/5 "2009-01-31T21:10:39Z")
Gregg is most definetly NOT a person I would want in the Obama administration. He is very anti-union and very pro corporation. Now, having said that, I would take him in if 1- a Democrat would be named to replace him 2- the Dems could maintain the 60 vote discipline necessary to kill a filibuster 3- this translates into actual passage of new needed laws like Employee Free Choice ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/6 "2009-02-01T09:46:19Z")
This has been gone over in a number of other threads, but it boils down to whether the Democrats can keep their people disciplined better than the Republicans. Historically the answer is no, Democrats are like cats, not easy to herd. Republicans do well in herds, being elephants. So it will always be easier to pry away a few Democrats to join the non-cloture than to get the Reps to join. It will be interesting to see how the remnants of the gang of 14 who got together to thwart the Dems filibusters and end the threat of “the nuclear option” will jump in the event of filibusters. Four of the Republican members of the gang of 14 are still office holders, and it seems difficult to believe that all four will renege, or even more than one. But we will see. As I’ve said in other threads, I hate the filibuster and hope that it goes the way of the dodo. (Back to Crawford. Sorry, I couldn’t resist.) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/7 "2009-02-01T12:11:46Z")
All that said, is there any real doubt that Gregg is being chosen precisely \*because \*that would flip his seat and get the count to 60, not because he’s an ideal choice for SecComm? I don’t doubt for a moment that Obama, or perhaps Emanuel, sounded Gov. Lynch out first about the plan, nor that it wouldn’t have happened if the House GOP hadn’t first shown that the party is going to spend its opposition years in simply being oppositionist. This approach lets the Goppers in both houses know that following Limbaugh’s approach means irrelevance. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/8 "2009-02-01T15:12:06Z")
There is [informed speculation](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/01/for-democrats-best-choice-may-be.html) that if Gregg is chosen a moderate _Republican_, such as Liz Hager may get the nod for the empty seat. It does seem the more wiley move. Almost as likely to vote with the Democrats on important issues (including but not only cloture) as many moderate Democratic Senators yet avoids letting the GOP claim that Obama is playing partisan games. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/9 "2009-02-01T16:00:11Z")
The secretary of commerce does not generally have a role in fiscal or economic policy. The main function of the job is as a booster for American business, especially overseas, and as a booster for administration policies. It’s a political patronage job and it often goes to political operatives like Ron Brown. And that kind of background fits in well for the job – it’s really a P.R. position. I’m not sure that the last secretary, Carlos Gutierrez, really had the best P.R./booster-type personality required. The U.S. Department of Commerce has some important agencies within it, especially the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, but the secretary has very little role in affecting policy or administration in those areas. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/10 "2009-02-01T16:57:35Z")
Good points **acsenray**. **haymarketmartyr** ’s concerns seem unfounded - this is not for the Labor dept post. He’s for free trade and big business sure enough but those decisions will made above him or otherwise outside of his purview. Even if he is replaced with a moderate Republican, better to get him kicked upstairs than have votes on those issues and allow him to advocate for his POV in the White House then to dutifully execute Obama’s final decisions on policies. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/11 "2009-02-01T20:46:46Z")
Oh other names - Bonnie Newman ®. Former Congresswoman. Warren Rudman ®. Known centrist and would placehold so Gov. Lynch could run himself in 2010. The Democratic House members - Paul Hodes or Carol Shea Porter. ---
**Author:** ![haymarketmartyr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/35a633/32.png) [@haymarketmartyr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/haymarketmartyr)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/12 "2009-02-01T22:23:43Z")
For me, this comes down to the Employee Free Choice Act. It will now get 59 votes and lose 59 to 41 if a Republican is placed in the Gregg vacancy. Sorry, but not enough for me. I want a full fledged Dem in that seat. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2009, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/13 "2009-02-01T23:11:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Warren Rudman (R). Known centrist and would placehold so Gov. Lynch could run himself in 2010. Rudman’s said he doesn’t want it. Lynch has also repeatedly refused to run for the Senate. > [@haymarketmartyr](#): > > For me, this comes down to the Employee Free Choice Act. It will now get 59 votes and lose 59 to 41 if a Republican is placed in the Gregg vacancy. You assume that all Dems will vote for and all Reps against. As we’ve seen in the last several substantive votes, this isn’t warranted at all. Spector and Snowe, in particular, need to burnish their moderate credentials. > [@haymarketmartyr](#): > > Sorry, but not enough for me. I want a full fledged Dem in that seat. Well, that’s not going to happen period. At most, you’ll get a moderate/conservative Dem from Lynch, and more likely a moderate/liberal Republican from Gregg. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2009, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/14 "2009-02-02T02:35:01Z")
Last time Spector [broke ranks](http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=1&vote=00227) and voted for it, although it wasn’t enough, of course. One would bet that he’s break ranks again and that perhaps a Snowe or Collins or even a new Senator Newman (which is who the rumors seem to suggest most strongly) might break over too. But all it needs is Spector to vote as he voted before and for all the Dems to stay on it. ---
**Author:** ![wsbenge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b38774/32.png) [@wsbenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wsbenge)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2009, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-democrats-going-to-get-a-super-majority/483900/15 "2009-02-03T05:27:15Z")
I hope the democrats get their super majority. Give them a chance to make their play. The republicans had their shot, with Newt. Blew it, too.