# Are the earth's poles going to shift soon? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports\ **Created:** [December 13, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939 "2012-12-13T17:47:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939/1 "2012-12-13T17:47:03Z")
From [this](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/862/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon) article (currently on the home page). I remember reading this article years ago, but I think Cecil actually answered a question that wasn’t being asked while not answering the one that was asked. To me, the guy asking the question was talking about magnet pole shift…something that’s pretty much a fact (i.e. magnetic poles periodic shift and we have the records that show that they do so…and that we are probably due for another shift sometime in the next…well, anytime between now and a couple thousand years, IIRC. Probably on December 21st though). Did it seem that way to anyone else, or am I reading the question wrong? As to the effects of a magnetic pole shift, I don’t think anyone really knows, aside from the fact that more radiation will be coming in while the magnetic field resettles. Could be bad…could be catastrophic…or, might not be the end of the world. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Cayuga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3e96dc/32.png) [@Cayuga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cayuga)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939/2 "2012-12-13T18:02:30Z")
I thought “magnetic poles” when I read the headline, too. But Cecil wrote the column 25 years ago, and David K never wrote back to correct him, so maybe it was supposed to be geographic poles after all. ---
**Author:** ![John\_W.Kennedy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_w.kennedy/32/1031_2.png) [@John\_W.Kennedy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_W.Kennedy)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939/3 "2012-12-13T18:14:06Z")
There is no doubt that doomsday sayers have been talking about shifts of the rotational poles. ---
**Author:** ![qazwart](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/5fc32e/32.png) [@qazwart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/qazwart)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2012, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939/4 "2012-12-13T22:34:58Z")
The magnetic polls are due for a flip. The magnetic field is getting weaker which usually signals the next shift, and it’s been a while since the last one. When a flip happens, it’s a fast process _in geologic time_. However, it can still take thousands of years. By the way, magnetic poles can weaken without flipping too. They get weaker and then stronger. There’s [axial precession](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_precession_(astronomy)) which will one day make Alrai the pole star in about 1000 years. in fact, Polaris as the name of our Pole Star is a fairly recent name. The name of the star in ancient Roman and Greek times was Cynosura. The poles themselves do travel, but very slowly, so don’t expect to wake up and find Ecuador at the North Pole any time soon. In fact, it’s more likely that Ecuador will move to the North Pole due to continental drift rather than the North Pole moving to where Ecuador is located. The next supercontinent is expected to converge at the North Pole. ---
**Author:** ![Michael63129](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3da27b/32.png) [@Michael63129](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Michael63129)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2012, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939/5 "2012-12-13T23:44:36Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Did it seem that way to anyone else, or am I reading the question wrong? As to the effects of a magnetic pole shift, I don’t think anyone really knows, aside from the fact that more radiation will be coming in while the magnetic field resettles. Could be bad…could be catastrophic…or, might not be the end of the world. 😉 The most likely answer is that nothing will really happen; human ancestors have already lived though several geomagnetic reversals with no ill effects and there is [no evidence](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere_and_human_society) of mass extinctions or anything like that from past reversals, even in species that rely on the magnetic field to migrate: > [@](#): > > However, the evidence from paleointensity measurements is that the magnetic field does not disappear. Based on paleointensity data for the last 800,000 years,[42] the magnetopause is still estimated to be at about 3 Earth radii during the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal.[35] Even if the magnetic field disappeared, the solar wind may induce a sufficient magnetic field in the Earth’s ionosphere to shield the surface from energetic particles.[43]… > > …Statistical analysis shows no evidence for a correlation between reversals and extinctions (note that there are two components to the magnetic field; the one we are concerned with is the dipole, also see [this illustration](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA_54559main_comparison1_strip.gif). Also see [this article](http://www.space.com/11187-earth-magnetic-field-solar-wind.html) on the true importance of a magnetic field) Maybe compasses will have to be changed, but other than that, I see no effects that would matter to the average layman (and GPS doesn’t rely on the magnetic field). In fact, since [geomagnetic storms](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm) are caused by the magnetic field responding to the impact from solar flares, they could become less severe. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2012, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-earths-poles-going-to-shift-soon/643939/6 "2012-12-14T01:32:46Z")
> [@Michael63129](#): > > The most likely answer is that nothing will really happen; human ancestors have already lived though several geomagnetic reversals with no ill effects and there is [no evidence](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#Effects_on_biosphere_and_human_society) of mass extinctions or anything like that from past reversals, even in species that rely on the magnetic field to migrate: > > (note that there are two components to the magnetic field; the one we are concerned with is the dipole, also see [this illustration](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA_54559main_comparison1_strip.gif). Also see [this article](http://www.space.com/11187-earth-magnetic-field-solar-wind.html) on the true importance of a magnetic field) > > Maybe compasses will have to be changed, but other than that, I see no effects that would matter to the average layman (and GPS doesn’t rely on the magnetic field). In fact, since [geomagnetic storms](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm) are caused by the magnetic field responding to the impact from solar flares, they could become less severe. Yeah, I agree. I was just trying to work that ‘it’s not going to be the end of the world’ joke in. 😉 But yeah, we’ve (and the species that were our ancestors) lived through many of these, and we are still here. I suppose it might hash up our electronics some, and certainly it could increase things like cancer rates, but I doubt it’s going to be any sort of Mayan Apocalypse, even if it DOES happen on the 21st…