# Are the Iron Dome interceptors striking anything? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 17, 2012, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339 "2012-11-17T19:48:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/21 "2012-11-20T14:14:48Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#): > > If they actually targeted only 300 of the 1000 inbound missiles, and intercepted 90% of those 300, then it doesn’t make sense to ascribe a “1/3 success rate”; that grossly understates the effectiveness of the system. More accurate is the hit rate. If to get these 270 rockets they are having to fire 2700 Iron Dome missiles, that would be an effectiveness of 10%. If they fired 540, it would be 50%, 300 firings 90%and so on. Even that could be misleading, perhaps the high rate of fire was done in order to increase probability of success, each in bound might have several missile fired at it. That would understate it’s efficiency. Statistics divorced from context are never reliable. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/22 "2012-11-20T14:41:26Z")
> [@control-z](#): > > What I said wasn’t a verbatim quote but they did say 1/3. Just illustrates how statistics and only telling part of the story can warp things. Thanks. That’s precisely why I asked the question. ---
**Author:** ![Noone\_Special](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/noone_special/32/2863_2.png) [@Noone\_Special](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noone_Special)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/23 "2012-11-20T15:00:51Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > More accurate is the hit rate. If to get these 270 rockets they are having to fire 2700 Iron Dome missiles, that would be an effectiveness of 10%. If they fired 540, it would be 50%, 300 firings 90%and so on. Even that could be misleading, perhaps the high rate of fire was done in order to increase probability of success, each in bound might have several missile fired at it. That would understate it’s efficiency. > > Statistics divorced from context are never reliable. Initially, each engagement was two Iron Dome missiles (called “_Tamir_”) per incoming rocket; in the following days the high success rate prompted the Sir Defense Command to go down to one rocket = 1 interceptor. So, at least from day 2 or so onward, a nominal interception rate of 90% = 90% effectiveness as well. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/24 "2012-11-20T15:11:28Z")
> [@Noone\_Special](#): > > Initially, each engagement was two Iron Dome missiles (called “_Tamir_”) per incoming rocket; in the following days the high success rate prompted the Sir Defense Command to go down to one rocket = 1 interceptor. So, at least from day 2 or so onward, a nominal interception rate of 90% = 90% effectiveness as well. Not that I disbelieve you, but cite? ---
**Author:** ![Noone\_Special](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/noone_special/32/2863_2.png) [@Noone\_Special](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noone_Special)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/25 "2012-11-20T15:12:59Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Not that I disbelieve you, but cite? Hebrew sources. I’ll see if I can scare up something in English 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/26 "2012-11-20T15:17:47Z")
> [@Noone\_Special](#): > > Hebrew sources. I’ll see if I can scare up something in English 🙂 Unfair. If it isn’t in a Romance language, it ipso facto doesn’t exist for research purposes. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/27 "2012-11-20T15:19:34Z")
If the Israeli ambassador to the US, is to be believed Hamas still has 12000 rockets and most of those are hunkered down in Gaza city. Even with the current success rate if Hamas do go all out ( and allowing for significant degradation in ability due to Israeli strikes) that still means many thousands of rockets raining down and with numbers of _Tamir_ would be reduced due to expansion. Unless Israel really does have 5000 missiles in reserve. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/28 "2012-11-20T15:21:34Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > If the Israeli ambassador to the US, is to be believed Hamas still has 12000 rockets and most of those are hunkered down in Gaza city. How did they acquire them? Running the blockade, tunnels to Egypt? ---
**Author:** ![Noone\_Special](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/noone_special/32/2863_2.png) [@Noone\_Special](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noone_Special)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/29 "2012-11-20T16:08:18Z")
> [@Noone\_Special](#): > > Hebrew sources. I’ll see if I can scare up something in English 🙂 Cite for the system using two interceptors per engagement in the past, and the reason for this fixed, but without the assertion that now only one is fired: [Iron Dome - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome#Deployment) (towards the end of the “Deployment” section) > [@](#): > > On 30 December 2011, The Jerusalem Post reported that a performance analysis it had obtained shows that Iron Dome was successful in downing rockets from Gaza 75% of the times it fired. **It said two interceptors are usually fired at each rocket**. In April 2011, for example, the system succeeded in intercepting eight of 10 rockets. Following the October violence, the IDF conducted an inquiry into the Iron Dome’s performance and **discovered that a radar failure caused some of the interceptors to miss their targets, a problem since corrected**. An officer told the Post that “seventy-five percent is impressive, but we would still like to see it perform better.” Still working on finding an actual cite for the fact that we’ve scaled down to a single interceptor per engagement… I may not be able to find a reputable source for this, since it’s recent news, but anecdotally I can tell you that from watching videos of engagements from the POV of the Iron Dome battery, it’s clear that indeed only one missile is used per incoming rocket. ---
**Author:** ![ed\_anger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bbce88/32.png) [@ed\_anger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ed_anger)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/30 "2012-11-20T16:17:33Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > How did they acquire them? Running the blockade, tunnels to Egypt? ebay. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/31 "2012-11-20T16:30:32Z")
> [@ed\_anger](#): > > ebay. I’ll be in the computer room. ---
**Author:** ![Noone\_Special](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/noone_special/32/2863_2.png) [@Noone\_Special](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noone_Special)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/32 "2012-11-20T16:33:23Z")
Best I can give you is [this video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHpXGTi3kv4) in which you can see a \*\*\*single \*\*\*explosion in the sky, taking out the one missile that was engaged coming in towards Tel Aviv (the other one was assessed as “no threat” and not engaged.) Note that there is only one warhead explosion. Now this doesn’t rule out a second interceptor going off outside the frame, or the possibility that there is no self-destruction mechanism on the interceptor, but it’s a fairly wide frame so I’m deeming the former unlikely, and I doubt the latter is true, because no self-destruct would be a security menace when landing… ---
**Author:** ![Arkcon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/96bed5/32.png) [@Arkcon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arkcon)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2012, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/33 "2012-11-20T20:46:42Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > How did they acquire them? Running the blockade, tunnels to Egypt? Check out wikipedia – these are steel tubes, hand drilled nozzle plates, fueled by fertilizer, with smuggled TNT and a shotgun shell primer. They have a fancy Arabic name, but they’re being knocked out by hand by craftsmen. They’re not re-purposed Soviet junk like other military equipment in the Arab world. ---
**Author:** ![TheBori](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ee7513/32.png) [@TheBori](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheBori)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2012, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/34 "2012-11-21T21:08:27Z")
> [@Noone\_Special](#): > > Best I can give you is [this video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHpXGTi3kv4) in which you can see a \*\*\*single \*\*\*explosion in the sky, taking out the one missile that was engaged coming in towards Tel Aviv (the other one was assessed as “no threat” and not engaged.) Note that there is only one warhead explosion. > Now this doesn’t rule out a second interceptor going off outside the frame, or the possibility that there is no self-destruction mechanism on the interceptor, but it’s a fairly wide frame so I’m deeming the former unlikely, and I doubt the latter is true, because no self-destruct would be a security menace when landing… The intent of an interceptor missile is not to detonate the incoming warhead (it is surprisingly difficult to light one off), but to fracture, obliterate or otherwise incapacitate it. A falling chunck of metal, while not the safest thing in the world, is better than an exploding chunk of metal. A proximity fuse and fragmentation warhead is the typical combination. Hitting a missile with a missle is tricky business. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2018, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/35 "2018-02-19T18:20:41Z")
[Arrow 3 missile scores space test success](http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-arrow-3-missile-scores-space-test-success-1001224466) ETA: FWIW I found thread **[Does Israel have working ‘starwars’ technology?](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=136656)** but its short and died in 2002. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2018, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339/36 "2018-07-23T12:42:14Z")
**[David’s Sling anti-missile system used for first time, in false alarm on Golan](https://www.timesofisrael.com/rocket-sirens-blare-across-golan-northern-israel-idf-investigating/)** _Military says projectiles were fired as part of internal fighting in Syria, did not cross the border, but initially seemed like they might; alarms sound throughout northern Israel_ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-iron-dome-interceptors-striking-anything/641339.md?page=1)