# Are the Polar bears actually diminishing? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 6, 2009, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132 "2009-01-06T20:56:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2009, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/1 "2009-01-06T20:56:41Z")
One thing that the global warming crowd talks about is the “plight” of the polar bears. According to orthodox GM “theology”, the bears depend upon seals, which they catch by sitting by the seal’s breathing holes (in the sea ice). With the warming trend, the sea ice is diminishing, hence the bears are unable to sustain themselves (the seals don’t need breathing holes). Is this correct? How does one take a census of wild animals like polar bears. also, if the seal population were to increas, would the bear population rebound? Finally, could the bears adapt and seek prey on land instead? ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2009, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/2 "2009-01-06T20:59:53Z")
What is the specific scientific problem with the commonly accepted version of bears feeding habits? Do you believe that the science is not properly supported by studies? Can you link to some respected biological cites that purport to differ on their analysis of the bears’ feeding habits? ---
**Author:** ![dedmonwakin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@dedmonwakin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dedmonwakin)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2009, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/3 "2009-01-06T21:04:16Z")
If it is true, then it is for only a short time. These are living breathing creatures that if not disrupted by human influence, can possibly find a way to survive. This was posted in 06’ [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/26/AR2006122601034.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/26/AR2006122601034.html) I’ve also read that their behavior is/has changed regarding where they feed. Which has risen more human contact and attacks. Whether this is the cause of “Human contribution of Global Warming” I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2009, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/4 "2009-01-06T21:22:01Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > One thing that the global warming crowd talks about is the “plight” of the polar bears. According to orthodox GM “theology”, the bears depend upon seals, which they catch by sitting by the seal’s breathing holes (in the sea ice). With the warming trend, the sea ice is diminishing, hence the bears are unable to sustain themselves (the seals don’t need breathing holes). > Is this correct? How does one take a census of wild animals like polar bears. also, if the seal population were to increas, would the bear population rebound? Finally, could the bears adapt and seek prey on land instead? Read the wikipedia article on polar bears, and then come back and restate your thesis without the well poisoning and with some facts. Polar bears are interfertile with Grizzlies, which currently inhabit the land niche. The more likely outcome is that they would be outcompeted on land, or absorbed in the Grizzly population. Hybrids might not be particularly adept at living on land as polar bears’ physiology is significantly different, and more suited for an aquatic lifestyle. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2009, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/5 "2009-01-06T21:29:31Z")
From the Wiki article on Polar Bears: > [@](#): > > Population and distribution > > The polar bear is found throughout the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas. Due to the absence of human development in its remote habitat, it retains more of its original range than any other extant large carnivore.[20] While they are rare north of 88°, there is evidence that they range all the way across the Arctic, and as far south as James Bay in Canada. They can occasionally drift widely with the sea ice, and there have been anecdotal sightings as far south as Berlevåg on the Norwegian mainland and the Kuril Islands in the Sea of Okhotsk. It is difficult to estimate a global population of polar bears as much of the range has been poorly studied, however biologists use a working estimate of about 20,000-25,000 polar bears worldwide.[5] > > There are 19 generally recognized discrete subpopulations.[6][5] The subpopulations display seasonal fidelity to particular areas, but DNA studies show that they are not reproductively isolated.[21] The thirteen North American subpopulations range from the Beaufort Sea south to Hudson Bay and east to Baffin Bay in western Greenland and account for about 70% of the global population. The Eurasian population is broken up into the East Greenland, Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, and Chukchi Sea subpopulations, though there is considerable uncertainty about the structure of these populations due to limited mark and recapture data. > > The range includes the territory of five nations: Denmark (Greenland), Norway (Svalbard), Russia, US (Alaska) and Canada. These five nations are the signatories of the 1973 International Agreement for the Conservation of Polar Bears which mandates cooperation on research and conservations efforts throughout the polar bear’s range. > > Modern methods of tracking polar bear populations have been implemented only since the mid-1980s, and are expensive to perform consistently over a large area.[22] The most accurate counts require flying a helicopter in the Arctic climate to find polar bears, shooting a tranquilizer dart at the bear to sedate it, and then tagging the bear.[22] In Nunavut, some Inuit have reported increases in bear sightings around human settlements in recent years, leading to a belief that populations are increasing. Scientists have responded by noting that hungry bears may be congregating around human settlements, leading to the illusion that populations are higher than they actually are.[22] The Polar Bear Specialist Group of the IUCN takes the position that “estimates of subpopulation size or sustainable harvest levels should not be made solely on the basis of traditional ecological knowledge without supporting scientific studies.”[23] > > Of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations, 5 are declining, 5 are stable, 2 are increasing, and 7 have insufficient data So…some populations are declining, some are stable and a few are increasing with a bunch that there is insufficient data on it. However, it’s early days still, GW wise, so it’s hard to say how this will all work out. I think it’s pretty conclusive that the ice IS melting though…and since the Polar Bears live and hunt out on that ice it’s pretty much self evident that there will be some kind of impact on them. -XT ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/6 "2009-01-07T02:27:30Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > One thing that the global warming crowd talks about is the “plight” of the polar bears. According to orthodox GM “theology”, the bears depend upon seals, which they catch by sitting by the seal’s breathing holes (in the sea ice). With the warming trend, the sea ice is diminishing, hence the bears are unable to sustain themselves (the seals don’t need breathing holes). > Is this correct? How does one take a census of wild animals like polar bears. also, if the seal population were to increas, would the bear population rebound? Finally, could the bears adapt and seek prey on land instead? Here is a [video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI) showing a talk by Professor Bob Carter. He points out towards the end of Part I that polar bears have made it through periods plenty warmer than now. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/7 "2009-01-07T03:27:27Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Here is a [video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI) showing a talk by Professor Bob Carter. He points out towards the end of Part I that polar bears have made it through periods plenty warmer than now. He does this primarily by pointing to a considerably warmer interglacial period (at least for Greenland) that occurred some 300,000 years ago or so without bothering to discover that the current polar bear [hasn’t actually been around that long](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_bear): “According to both fossil and DNA evidence, the polar bear diverged from the brown bear, Ursus arctos, roughly 200,000 years ago. The oldest known polar bear fossil is less than 100,000 years old.” Hence, it appears that the polar bears have, at most, survived only one previous interglacial period (the one about 100,000 years ago). However, the warming expected over the next century would differ from that one in that the speed of the warming would be much more rapid plus at the same time there are additional stresses on the bears due to other human factors (e.g., persistent organic pollutants, encroachment on their habitat, and human competition with their food sources). Also, depending on our emissions and the climate sensitivity, the temperature in the next century is possibly, if not likely, to surpass the temperature in this previous interglacial. This is presumably why, as the Wikipedia article I linked to notes: > [@](#): > > The IUCN, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, United States Geological Survey and many leading polar bear biologists have expressed grave concerns about the impact of global warming, including the belief that the current warming trend imperils the survival of the species. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/8 "2009-01-07T03:42:11Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > He does this primarily by pointing to a considerably warmer interglacial period (at least for Greenland) that occurred some 300,000 years ago or so without bothering to discover that the current polar bear [hasn’t actually been around that long](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_bear): “According to both fossil and DNA evidence, the polar bear diverged from the brown bear, Ursus arctos, roughly 200,000 years ago. The oldest known polar bear fossil is less than 100,000 years old.” Hence, it appears that the polar bears have, at most, survived only one previous interglacial period (the one about 100,000 years ago). Assuming that’s true, it would seem his point still stands, since the polar bears did apparently make it through the more recent interglacial period. > [@](#): > > However, the warming expected over the next century would differ from that one in that the speed of the warming would be much more rapid If you look at Part II, Professor Carter points out that there have been rates of change of temperature far higher in the past than now. > [@](#): > > plus at the same time there are additional stresses on the bears due to other human factors (e.g., persistent organic pollutants, encroachment on their habitat, and human competition with their food sources). Those are different issues. Certainly if these things pose bona fide threats to the Polar Bear population, mankind should consider addressing them. > [@](#): > > Also, depending on our emissions and the climate sensitivity, the temperature in the next century is possibly, if not likely, to surpass the temperature in this previous interglacial. Anything is possible. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/9 "2009-01-07T04:12:45Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Here is a [video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI) showing a talk by Professor Bob Carter. He points out towards the end of Part I that polar bears have made it through periods plenty warmer than now. Seems odd that you are linking to someone that works for the Institute of Public Affairs. [Sydney Morning Herald,](http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/minchin-denies-climate-change-manmade/2007/03/14/1173722560417.html) > [@](#): > > One author of the critique was the retired James Cook University professor Bob Carter. **Professor Carter** , whose background is in marine geology, appears to have little, if any, standing in the Australian climate science community. He is on the research committee at the Institute of Public Affairs, a think tank that has received funding from oil and tobacco companies, **and whose directors sit on the boards of companies in the fossil fuel sector.** My Bolding. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/10 "2009-01-07T04:29:54Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Seems odd that you are linking to someone that works for the Institute of Public Affairs. What exactly is your argument here? Is there anything incorrect in what Professor Carter is saying? Are you saying that any academic who sits on a research committee of an organization which receives funding from interested parties should be distrusted? disregarded? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/11 "2009-01-07T04:40:59Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > What exactly is your argument here? Is there anything incorrect in what Professor Carter is saying? Are you saying that any academic who sits on a research committee of an organization which receives funding from interested parties should be distrusted? disregarded? He’s a marine geologist, who is speculating about the biology of a large mammal. I would rather hear from biologists, who may have a better grasp of the science involved. Also, it has been pointed out to you that he refers to Polar Bears living through the interglacial 300,000 years ago. He does not even know that they did not exist as a species then, according to BIOLOGISTS. He is a paid shill, commenting on things that he knows nothing about. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/12 "2009-01-07T04:44:28Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He’s a marine geologist, In his video, he claims to have been working on temperature histories through ocean cores (whatever those are). Do you dispute this claim? ---
**Author:** ![Blake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a9a28c/32.png) [@Blake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blake)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/13 "2009-01-07T04:56:02Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > He’s a marine geologist, who is speculating about the biology of a large mammal. I would rather hear from biologists, who may have a better grasp of the science involved. That’s a pretty weak ad hominem. He is adressing the effects of climate change, specifically the effects of climate change on marine landforms (iceforms?) as it relates to the bears. Had he been a biologist you would have simply said that he’s a biolgist speculating about the geomorphology of the arctic and that you won’t have respect for anyone who isn’t a geologist with experience in oceanography.. This is one of the major problems with the AGW debate. Nobody has expertise in all the necessray fields. In this issue someone would need to be a mammalologist, marine biologist, marine geologist and climatologist to understand just the most importnat factors at play in the effects on polar bears. Anyone who doesn’t have expertise in all those fields can be dismissed just as you have just dismissed a marine geologist. > [@](#): > > He is a paid shill, commenting on things that he knows nothing about. Can we have a refernce for this claim please? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/14 "2009-01-07T05:09:27Z")
> [@Blake](#): > > Can we have a refernce for this claim please? **Jshore** linked to some good evidence above that he does not know what he is talking about (namely that they survived a warming spell 300,000 years ago when they did not even exist as a species). **What Exit?** posted a link showing that he was paid (by the Institute of Public Affairs, a think tank funded at least partly by oil companies). So the only reference needed is that he is a shill… According to [Dictionary.com](http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/shill), a shill is > [@](#): > > a person who publicizes or praises something or someone for reasons of self-interest, personal profit, or friendship or loyalty. Drat… It would be very difficult to objectively prove what someones motivation is, so I guess you win hands down. He is obviously lily white (or rather polar bear white) and his claim that polar bears survived a warming period 300,000 years ago must not be questioned… ---
**Author:** ![JonScribe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3be4f8/32.png) [@JonScribe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JonScribe)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/15 "2009-01-07T05:10:37Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Finally, could the bears adapt and seek prey on land instead? Sure. Hold still for a minute, and I’ll ring the dinner bell. ---
**Author:** ![spike404](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@spike404](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spike404)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/16 "2009-01-07T05:43:17Z")
The polar bear controversy became news because of Gore’s movie, it was NOT a documentary! It seems Al’s heart-wrenching pictures were knowingly misleading. Look it up. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/17 "2009-01-07T05:47:40Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > In his video, he claims to have been working on temperature histories through ocean cores (whatever those are). Do you dispute this claim? No, I said nothing about this claim. I suggest that as he has no background in large mammal biology, he should probably not discuss the biology of Polar Bears. And **Blake** , I suggest you look up the meaning of Ad Hominem. I’m perfectly entitled to comment on the credentials of a so-called “expert” ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/18 "2009-01-07T06:22:13Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > What exactly is your argument here? Is there anything incorrect in what Professor Carter is saying? Are you saying that any academic who sits on a research committee of an organization which receives funding from interested parties should be distrusted? disregarded? I think the argument is that you are basing your opinions on someone who goes against the scientific mainstream and is untrained in the discipline he’s talking about. That IMHO is the hallmark of someone who cares more about \*seeming \*right than \*being \*right. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/19 "2009-01-07T18:03:27Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > No, I said nothing about this claim. I suggest that as he has no background in large mammal biology, he should probably not discuss the biology of Polar Bears. I’m not sure I agree with you, but let me ask you this: Do you also contend that folks like Jim Hansen should not discuss climate change and its potential effects (or lack of effects) on wild animals? Or is that somehow different? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2009, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132/20 "2009-01-07T18:07:01Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Do you also contend that folks like Jim Hansen should not discuss climate change and its potential effects (or lack of effects) on wild animals? Or is that somehow different? Well, if he were talking about the population of Fozzy Bears, I’d consider him an expert. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-the-polar-bears-actually-diminishing/480132.md?page=2)