# Are there any industries other than the sex industry which are considered a bellwether of bad economic times coming? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 2, 2025, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493 "2025-04-02T04:16:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/21 "2025-04-03T14:13:56Z")
I’ve been seeing it in commercial construction. Not just the amount of new starts but downgrades on projects in process. The steel is already coming out of the ground but the fancy park next to it gets value engineered into a plain greenspace, the granite cobble pavers get replaced with inexpensive clay brick pavers, the natural stone retaining wall becomes a graded slope, etc. If you’re not confident that you’ll be getting occupants in the building, you don’t want to be dropping a bunch of money on making it look nice. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/22 "2025-04-03T15:32:07Z")
Ive heard the same thing about law school. Faced with uncertain prospects, a lot of people take three years to try to become lawyers, thinking that they will be guaranteed a job. In the early 2010s there was a glut of new lawyers ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/23 "2025-04-03T15:36:09Z")
> [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](#): > > But one thing I learned is you can very much judge the state of the market based on the sales of aluminum cans. People always drink beer. It doesn’t matter how bad their life is, there is always money for beer. When times are bad, they buy beer in cans. Good times, micro brews and bottled beer. If the aluminum can market starts moving up, the general economy is moving down. I fucking guarantee it. I am certainly not an expert in that industry, but I’ve noticed, in the past few years, that a lot of microbreweries / craft breweries are moving from bottles, and back to aluminum cans. This article indicates that cost is a reason, as well as keeping the beer fresher. > **[The Rise of Canned Beers: Portability, Recyclability, and Freshness in the...](https://www.craftbeerjoe.com/craft-beer-talk/the-rise-of-canned-beers/)** > > The Rise of Canned Beers is in full swing as the vast majority of craft beers are now only available in cans. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/24 "2025-04-03T15:42:55Z")
I’ve seen the other end of that. During downturns boat sales go down and a lot more boats enter the used market or if the recession is long, end up chopped up and removed from the boatyard they were abandoned in. But hey, dock space suddenly opens up a little. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/25 "2025-04-03T15:44:12Z")
Most industrial manufacturing businesses see a drop when the economy starts to go south. I happen to design industrial control systems for a living, and the funny thing is that every time the economy starts to go in the dumper, my business is the opposite. We start to see a boom in sales. The reason why is that when the economy is going great, manufacturers tend to just pump out products as fast as they can. But when the economy starts to slow down, manufacturers cut back on production, and now their plants have idle time which allows them to install upgrades and make improvements, which is extra work for us. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/26 "2025-04-03T15:46:12Z")
When you notice the Microbrew market is shrinking, this is an ongoing trend and not something tied to any current economic issues. Though it might aggravate things. Beer drinking in general in the US has been declining as the under 30 crowd is drinking less beer than older generations. I hope my favorite local micros can survive, the one survived 2008 & COVID so will probably weather this chaos also. The other is much shakier and opened post COVID. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2025, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/27 "2025-04-03T15:50:03Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I am certainly not an expert in that industry, but I’ve noticed, in the past few years, that a lot of microbreweries / craft breweries are moving from bottles, and back to aluminum cans. This article indicates that cost is a reason, as well as keeping the beer fresher. Likewise, a lot of concert venues have moved from plastic bottles for water to aluminum (and cardboard) ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2025, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/28 "2025-04-12T11:12:44Z")
Having lived through a few economic dowturns and whatnot, the signs I observe are: More ads for gambling (because people turn to it in desperation when they don’t have enough money). More ads for loans, especially payday loans with ferocious interest rates, also new brands of credit card seem to spring up. More ads for companies that will buy your gold or other valuables. ---
**Author:** ![MacDoc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/macdoc/32/18696_2.png) [@MacDoc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacDoc)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2025, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/29 "2025-04-12T12:37:27Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > Having lived through a few economic **dowturns** Clever inadvertent pun 🍻 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2025, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/30 "2025-04-12T12:52:22Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Every time the economy starts to downturn, ad agencies pull out the studies that show that companies which maintain marketing spending through a recession (rather than cutting) emerge on the other side of the downturn in a stronger place. It never matters. Maybe the ad industry needs better skills at convincing people that a particular product and/or service is worth spending money on. I’m not sure where they would find people with that expertise, though… > [@suranyi](#): > > Travel, especially vacation travel, is famously subject to economic conditions. On the other hand, travel is something that people buy many months or even a year in advance. So you’d have to look, not at how many people are traveling now, but how many people are buying travel now. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2025, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/31 "2025-04-12T12:56:11Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Maybe the ad industry needs better skills at convincing people that a particular product and/or service is worth spending money on. I’m not sure where they would find people with that expertise, though… Honestly, the people with actual skills in the advertising industry are really good at that. However, there is, indeed, a lot of lousy advertising out there — though much of it is stuff that’s dictated by clients who think that they understand advertising and marketing better than they actually do. Also, it’s cool to say “advertising sucks,” and insist “I am never influenced by ads.” ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2025, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/32 "2025-04-13T01:41:42Z")
In my world, substitute teachers are countercyclical. When people are unemployed, subbing is prety solid. You can work most days, but if you need time to go to an interview or whatever, its easy to not work. You arent making any committments. On the other hand, its a terrible job otherwise. Pays like $115/day, very lonely, you never know what your day will be like, some classes are awful. So if there are other jobs, any other jobs, people do those instead and we are scrambling. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2025, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/33 "2025-04-14T05:01:37Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Maybe the ad industry needs better skills at convincing people that a particular product and/or service is worth spending money on. The problem is that like a lot of rest of our country, much of the corporate leadership operates on faith and dogma, not science, evidence or reason. The leadership _knows_ that squeezing workers and firing employees is the way to raise profits, and will just ignore all evidence to the contrary. And it’s pretty much impossible to persuade people who operate on faith of anything that contradicts their dogma. ---
**Author:** ![Horatio\_Hellpop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Horatio\_Hellpop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatio_Hellpop)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493/34 "2025-05-04T07:10:23Z")
The first time I visited Guam, in 2009, there was a pawn shop and a liquor store on virtually every main street block of Tumom Bay. I went back four years later and mostly, they were gone and there was a glut of fashion outlets and bars with pistol ranges. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-there-any-industries-other-than-the-sex-industry-which-are-considered-a-bellwether-of-bad-economic-times-coming/1016493.md?page=1)