No economist thinks that the gold standard is good and it would likely be a disaster. The fact that we’re off the gold standard makes it easier for the Fed (and the economy) to react to market fluctuations.
Absolutely not. Schiff is a loony permabear with ties to Ron Paul. Wasn’t familiar with Maloney but a quick Google shows he’s a nutty goldbug. This guy are as far out there as Alex Jones.
The decline in the stock market between 2007 and 2009 was (by the S&P500) 53%.
Currently, since the last peak, the S&P500 is down about 11.5%.
Every major crash looks like a smaller one at the start. But plenty of small declines don’t turn into major crashes. No one knows, but the odds are against it.
I believe this is incorrect. Government debt is created when Federal spending exceeds revenue. The central bank operates independent of the Federal government; QE simply means the FRB is exchanging newly created money for other assets (mainly U.S. Treasury bonds), but that “new money” is not scored as government debt.
There may be a case for thinking QE to be inflationary (though inflation might be a good thing now), but it doesn’t increase the debt.
No. We’re probably at the beginning of a recession, but there’s no reason to expect a crash.
About 30 years, really.
The U.S. stock market is already down over 10% from its 2015 highs. Expect it to fall further if (as expected?) we do indeed enter a recession. I’m not sure how “crash” is defined, but many stocks will fare poorly unless the recession is short-lived.
Falling unemployment is not an indication of recession. Doom and Gloom newsletter writers and tv pundits like to engage in scare mongering.
check the public debt to GDP ratio from 2008 to now. What I am saying is that Govt. is creating enormous debt and FED is buying it in form of bonds.
Your government’s debt now is probably over 19trillion. Government’s income and expenditure is 3.x trillion iirc . If they keep on increasing debt, it shows that either they don’t ever wish to repay it (I expected this to be the case) or they will have to increase taxes or reduce expenditure(like health care, defense or salaries).
Like mentioned earlier, QEs created massive inflation and currency instability in many countries. QEs brought in dollars into these countries and now, they can’t handle the outflow. Oil Price also follows the supply of money. Increasing since 2008, decreasing in last 1.5 yrs since there’s been talk of tapering and stopping QE.
But, QEs has been good for artificially preventing a recession till now, creating wealth effect, saving jobs and there have been some cool innovations (cheap Android phones, cheap Internet, shale oil etc).
It remains to be seen how much more debt they want to create that they won’t ever repay.
Market cap to GDP ratio -
Here and here are pertinent articles and no, we are not at the beginning of a 2008-like stock market crash. No where near, in fact. An article I read yesterday said if all oil loans failed the banks could use one quarter (three months) of profits to settle them all.
I was wondering about those negative interest rates Japan is using. Doesn’t that mean charging people to save money? Would that even be legal in the United States? I’m thinking if the Fed tried it, they’d face a raft of class-action lawsuits claiming siezure without due process.
How can you be so certain?
The first link isn’t to any long-term analysis; it’s just speculation on price changes over the past week. :smack: The second article is an optimistic government guess – optimism is part of their job. In fact, the FRB is afraid that the rcent tiny interest rate hike was over-optimistic. Junk bond yields are soaring.
The U.S. economy has been growing less than 2.5% annually in recent years, much less than the 3 to 4% typical during good times; the annual growth rate in the most recent quarter was less than 1%. The strong dollar adversely affects many big U.S. companies. U.S. stocks are doing well in part because of high profit-to-sales ratios as workers are squoze, but an assumption of continued high profits is factored into present stock prices.
European stocks are down 20% over the last 12 months; political problems loom; France has been in and out of recession.
Many analysts believe we’re already entering a serious bear market. I don’t know one or the other. But dismissing the possibility seems way too optimistic.
This is probably always true. It’s probably always true that some analysts think we’re about to hit a bull market.
Multiple studies have shown that almost nobody can consistently beat the market long-term. That means that almost nobody knows anything more than anybody else.
While debt keeps growing, the deficit has been significantly cut. Maybe cut too much.
I’m not sure what you mean by the government not repaying debt. Surely not a particular bond - that always gets repaid. Please provide evidence that paying all debt is a good thing. That would mean that we would take money from the public at large and funnel it into bondholders to be repaid early. The public at large could probably spend it more wisely, ditto the government.
I think someone has already explained QE to you. If oil prices follow the money supply, how come they have collapse when the money supply is getting bigger? If money supply caused inflation then perhaps oil prices would increase, but that is not happening here. Are you one of the people who have been expecting runaway inflation due to the deficit over the past 7 years? Why do you think inflation has been below the target?
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oil prices did stay between $110-120 for 5 yrs after dropping to $35 in 2009. This was only due to money supply(QEs). FED posturing of stopping QE and doing rate hike brought it down.
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Less fiscal deficit(2.1% iirc) is a good decision, but ultimately that will good also be a slight drag on corporate earnings.
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Dollar went up because people thought it had a value. People will realise USA’s trade deficit is MASSIVE and they just keep printing money and people will dump the dollar. Like China, Russia are doing
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The above coupled with Russia, China Iran Syria alliance could mean the end of petrodollar. Trump’s( i dont dislike him) Muslim comments could alienate Saudis too if he becomes President.
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The above coupled with the fact that US stock valuations are quite rich gives a feeling there’s going to be amassive crash. Technical structure is looking tht way as well.
I wish well for everyone which is why I will urge everyone to take out their money.
Provide a cite that oil prices only stayed high because of QE. I don’t think that was a major factor.
Show me a cite that China and Russia are dumping U.S. Dollars. If they are, it’s not because they fear a collapse of the dollar(which isn’t collapsing BTW).
^google ‘China selling treasuries’. I read somewhere that an unaccounted for entity called ‘exchange stabilisation fund’ is buying.
Thanks. Your cite proves my point. China is selling foreign currencies and bonds to prop up their slowing economy. It has NOTHING to do with flight from the US dollar.