# Are we at Trump’s tipping point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2018, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944 "2018-03-21T03:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/201 "2018-03-27T18:02:34Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > You guys were talking past each other. Bob didn’t say he expected Trump to get the death penalty. Correct, I do not expect that. But I think it has a higher probability than that of Hillary being locked up. What I expect is impeachment followed by conviction followed by indictment followed by trial, conviction, and imprisonment. But: if convicted of treason then all bets are off. Would Mueller have the balls to pursue a treason charge, could he convict, and would death result? Quite likely no, but not impossible. The “lock her up” chants at Republican rallies were nothing more than wishful thinking on their part, Hillary had already been investigated more than the JFK shooting. If the first dozen investigations found nothing, chances are there is nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/202 "2018-03-27T18:27:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > No, but I honestly believe that there is no chance of Donald Trump getting the death penalty (which is what **BobLibDem** ’s post was claiming: “the struggle will be for him to avoid the death penalty”). Does that not seem wildly far-fetched to you? I would put it at non-zero, but no higher than that. I’m a scientist though, so I’m trained to put the odds of anything at non-zero. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This is stupid bullshit, and very wrong. I’m perfectly innocent (so far as I know), but I wouldn’t “welcome” the police searching my car or home to clear my name, and I wouldn’t “welcome” the IRS digging through my previous returns, and I wouldn’t “welcome” the ATF getting their dirty paws all over my gun collection even though everything I own is perfectly legal. Most people don’t “welcome” official investigations and scrutiny of their actions, even when innocent. You’re innocent, but nobody is accusing you. If I get wrongly accused of murdering my family, I would damn sure give the cops access to absolutely anything they want access to in order to both clear my name, and make sure they don’t waste time chasing down a false narrative. In other words, I don’t welcome the opportunity to be in that position, but I would absolutely understand the need to go down that road given the situation, and if a significant number of people thought me guilty, I would welcome the opportunity to prove them wrong. Trump isn’t doing the same because he knows damn well that his finances will not hold up to any serious level of scrutiny. He has been dirty as shit for decades, and he would have gotten away with it as a private citizen. He’s not going to get away with it as president. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/203 "2018-03-27T19:23:34Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > You guys were talking past each other. Bob didn’t say he expected Trump to get the death penalty. Here is the exact quote. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > There is a 900 lb gorilla on the bench- the Mueller investigation results. When that comes out, re-election will be off the table and the struggle will be for him to avoid the death penalty. L He said “the struggle will be for him to avoid the death penalty”. If you want to try to parse out the differences between “the struggle will be for him to avoid” and “expected”, go right ahead. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/204 "2018-03-27T19:27:31Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > … Trump isn’t doing the same because he knows damn well that his finances will not hold up to any serious level of scrutiny. … Your statement here seems to express too much certainty about Trump’s motives, at least for someone who is trained as scientist. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/205 "2018-03-27T19:30:16Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Here is the exact quote. > > He said “the struggle will be for him to avoid the death penalty”. If you want to try to parse out the differences between “the struggle will be for him to avoid” and “expected”, go right ahead. Don’t kill our dreams. Some days it’s all we have. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/206 "2018-03-27T19:36:17Z")
Please. An obstruction charge is a slam dunk. (Notice that I said charge there, not conviction. The Senate won’t vote for that given the number of flag-wrapping hypocrites I mean Republicans there.) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/207 "2018-03-27T19:47:45Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Please. An obstruction charge is a slam dunk. (Notice that I said charge there, not conviction. The Senate won’t vote for that given the number of flag-wrapping hypocrites I mean Republicans there.) You seem confused about the details of the processes involved. Mueller’s investigation won’t (directly) determine what Trump might or might not be impeached for, and therefore have the Senate vote on. The House of Representatives does that. Mueller may (but probably won’t, IMHO) bring criminal charges against President Trump. In that case, a judge / jury would be voting on it, not the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/208 "2018-03-27T19:49:16Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Don’t kill our dreams. Some days it’s all we have. I’m trying to help you (general you, not **Procrustus** in particular) have realistic dreams. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/209 "2018-03-27T20:00:44Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m trying to help you (general you, not **Procrustus** in particular) have realistic dreams. It’s like dreaming of winning the lottery. It’s fun, but no one really expects it. For me, I have modest hopes. Resign in disgrace would satisfy me. Prosecution would be just the cherry on top. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/210 "2018-03-27T20:02:54Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I would put it at non-zero, but no higher than that. I’m a scientist though, so I’m trained to put the odds of anything at non-zero. That first sentence is going to get you kicked out of the National Association of Scientists. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/211 "2018-03-27T20:24:02Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > No, of course I don’t agree! > > Seriously, what kind of question is that? Don’t be silly, please. You don’t agree? You actually believe that every market move, up or down, is based on the whims, or actions, or inactions of the POTUS? Seriously? Maybe you misread the post you quoted? for historical reference - _Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka You’d agree that some days the market moves one direction or the other regardless of what the President’s does or does not do, correct?_ While Presidential action/inaction may occasionally result in some market movement, most buy/sell orders are primarily intended to make a profit for the buyer/seller. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/212 "2018-03-27T20:31:12Z")
Meanwhile, back at the “tipping point” question, has the Democrat Party, and their super delegates, decided witch Democrat will be allowed to represent their party? Without actually having another candidate to chose from, it’s difficult to currently determine if any voters will tip towards that candidate-to-be-determined-later. ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/213 "2018-03-27T20:40:59Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Meanwhile, back at the “tipping point” question, has the Democrat Party, and their super delegates, decided witch Democrat will be allowed to represent their party? Without actually having another candidate to chose from, it’s difficult to currently determine if any voters will tip towards that candidate-to-be-determined-later. Except the super-delegates have never decided a primary result. Nice “oops” of the witch mispelling though. Please keep up. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/214 "2018-03-27T20:48:13Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Meanwhile, back at the “tipping point” question, has the Democrat Party, and their super delegates, decided witch Democrat will be allowed to represent their party? Without actually having another candidate to chose from, it’s difficult to currently determine if any voters will tip towards that candidate-to-be-determined-later. Ignoring the fact you still don’t know the name of one of the two major U.S. political parties, and if I may play **doorhinge** for a moment, do you think the party should pick its nominee three years before the election and without the benefit of caucuses, elections, and a nominating convention? ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/215 "2018-03-27T20:53:12Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Here is the exact quote. > > He said “the struggle will be for him to avoid the death penalty”. If you want to try to parse out the differences between “the struggle will be for him to avoid” and “expected”, go right ahead. Do you know the definition of “hyperbole”? Hint: it’s not how the Millennium Falcon goes faster than the speed of light. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/216 "2018-03-27T20:58:43Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Ignoring the fact you still don’t know the name of one of the two major U.S. political parties, and if I may play **doorhinge** for a moment, do you think the party should pick its nominee three years before the election and without the benefit of caucuses, elections, and a nominating convention? Wow, that is uncanny. Now just repeat it four or five more times in succession. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/217 "2018-03-27T21:01:08Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > That’s not really Trump’s thing though. Trump is a shyster, not a stocks guy. His scams are weirdly low class, things like forcing government officials to stay in his hotels and then charging them an arm and a leg so he can fleece the expense accounts. It works, but it’s small time shit. > > If Trump is making huge bucks from his “Presidency” it’s not from clever market manipulation, something that he has no experience with and is probably not bright enough to really grasp. It’s obviously going to be from influence peddling, very likely from having debts forgiven in exchange for favors. Oh, I agree. A popular parlor game of the future, should there be one, may well be “what _could_ Trump have done with all that power if he actually possessed basic intelligence?” > [@jasg](#): > > No dispute but clearly, I failed at a humorous addition to your example to HD. Sorry. My apologies–I misread your intent. :o ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/218 "2018-03-27T21:22:38Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > If we ever reach the tipping point, it will be reflected in polling. > > 538 is the go-to location to see a weighted average of the latest approval ratings, all the better to understand the underlying trend. It’s now at 40.7%. It hit a low of 36.4% on Dec 16th, during the plutocrat tax giveaway debate. If we’re at a tipping point, it will be obvious in a week or so. > > Updated daily?: [How Popular Is Donald Trump? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo) > > You know what hurts Trump? When he’s tied to unpopular policies. Same for [Berlusconi](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/21/if-berlusconi-is-like-trump-what-can-italy-teach-america). The bread and circuses stuff plays to Trump’s strengths as a showman. Well it’s one week later. The Stormy interview was on Sunday, so to be scrupulously fair, we should probably wait 3 more days for a more definitive answer. That said, 538’s weighted trend is currently at… 40.7%, exactly the same as 1 week ago. During the past week, it blipped up to 41.1% for a while: scary! Well no, not really. Not seeing a tipping point. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s numbers are a tad higher in 3 days. Circus stuff doesn’t hurt Trump. Unpopular policies hurt Trump. Whether criminal charges would cause Trump’s base to question their support is not yet clear. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/219 "2018-03-27T21:26:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This is stupid bullshit, and very wrong. I’m perfectly innocent (so far as I know), but I wouldn’t “welcome” the police searching my car or home to clear my name, and I wouldn’t “welcome” the IRS digging through my previous returns, and I wouldn’t “welcome” the ATF getting their dirty paws all over my gun collection even though everything I own is perfectly legal. Most people don’t “welcome” official investigations and scrutiny of their actions, even when innocent. I believe this is a new opinion for you. You used to welcome official investigations of people, when it was ICE investigating employment records. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/220 "2018-03-27T21:51:43Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I believe this is a new opinion for you. You used to welcome official investigations of people, when it was ICE investigating employment records. No, it’s not a new opinion for me, you’ve just misunderstood. While I don’t particularly mind the authorities doing their jobs within the confines of the Constitution and while giving a reasonable good effort to comply with the various requirements, I would not welcome an investigation of me personally as it’s a hassle with very little upside. I imagine some employers in California feel similarly. Others are probably employing illegals and I imagine utterly dread ICE investigations. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=12)