# Are we at Trump’s tipping point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2018, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944 "2018-03-21T03:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/341 "2018-04-02T17:34:27Z")
[Yes, you did.](https://www.vox.com/2017/12/20/16790040/gop-tax-bill-winners) The party of fiscal responsibility indeed. :rolleyes: Oh, wait, you limited your question to 2018, didn’t you? Why is that? > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Making a Supreme Court pick is not easy. It _shouldn’t_ be. But picking a name at random from a list of reliable ideologues you’ve been handed isn’t easy? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/342 "2018-04-02T17:35:45Z")
writing a longer response. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/343 "2018-04-02T17:40:25Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > [Yes, you did.](https://www.vox.com/2017/12/20/16790040/gop-tax-bill-winners) The party of fiscal responsibility indeed. :rolleyes: > > Oh, wait, you limited your question to 2018, didn’t you? Why is that? … I didn’t do that, YOU did that when you said “… people may not realize how much they got screwed by the Cut Cut Cut Bill until they do their returns, \*after \*the next elections.” It was pretty obvious to me that you were talking about the 2018 tax year. On that subject, your own freakin’ cite says: > [@](#): > > According to an analysis from the Tax Policy Center, the bill would reduce taxes for Americans in all income groups in 2018 — increasing after-tax income by an average of 2.2 percent. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/344 "2018-04-02T17:59:22Z")
I love the sound of whistling past the graveyard. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/345 "2018-04-02T18:09:22Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Making a Supreme Court pick is not easy. Trump would have had every vested interest whispering in his ear over that one. He no doubt had people telling him to nominate a social conservative dedicated to ending abortion. He could have ignored the list in favor of a ‘gut’ pick. He could have tried to nominate some powerful celebrity businessman with a law degree. Heck, given that it’s Trump he could have tried to nominate Judge Judy because he likes her style when he watches her show in the afternoon. He had a list of people who hated abortion and loved guns. He picked one. A chimp could have done the same with names of such people placed in a hat. If he, heaven forbid, get a second pick he’ll just draw another name of gun-loving abortion haters out of a hat. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/346 "2018-04-02T19:26:44Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > … If he, heaven forbid, get a second pick he’ll just draw another name of gun-loving abortion haters out of a hat. I think his pick was a bit savvier than that, but either way, if he does pick a second one like Gorsuch, he’ll get another round of applause from me. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/347 "2018-04-02T19:31:23Z")
Jesus people. Enough with the Gorsuch business already. It’s something he promised to do during the campaign and something he did once he took office. It is just about as rock solid of an example of campaign promise kept as is imaginable. Even if you believe this seat rightfully belongs to Merrick Garland or that it does not have a high degree of difficulty, it is unequivocally a promise kept. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/348 "2018-04-02T19:34:02Z")
Who said it wasn’t? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/349 "2018-04-02T19:43:52Z")
> [@drad\_dog](#): > > You have to stop using Gorsuch as a promise that he delivered. > [@RickJay](#): > > Promising to nominate a Supreme Court justice when there’s an open seat is like promising to wear clothes tomorrow, or that you will definitely eat food in the coming week. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Because treating it as if it was a victory is nonsense. There was a vacancy on the Supreme Court. Trump is President. Of course, he submitted a nomination to fill the vacancy. It’s a routine duty of the office. If Clinton or Sanders or Cruz had been elected, they would have done the same thing. As a campaign promise, it’s like saying that if you’re elected, you promise to sit behind a desk in the Oval Office. It’s something he promised to do. It’s something he did. Some people voted for him for because of this promise. Those people are pleased. Many conservatives abandoned their principles for the prospect of of a conservative judiciary and a CostCo membership sized tax break. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/350 "2018-04-02T20:41:36Z")
The ultimate tipping point comes when the repeated trade-war and personal-vendetta hits to the stock market build into a definite Trump Slump. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/351 "2018-04-02T20:54:47Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > The ultimate tipping point comes when the repeated trade-war and personal-vendetta hits to the stock market build into a definite Trump Slump. How would you define a “Trump Slump”? ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/352 "2018-04-02T20:55:54Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > How would you define a “Trump Slump”? Stormy told him “no” 5 times? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/353 "2018-04-02T21:00:54Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > As for Trump’s ‘tipping point’… Unfortunately, his approval on the Rassmussen index is now at 50%. That’s higher than Obama’s approval at the same point in his presidency. This despite Trump getting the most negative press coverage in my lifetime, while Obama got the most fawning press coverage in my lifetime. Even more depressingly from my point of view, his popularity seems to be spiking because of the worst policy choices he has made - tariffs, and signing a gigantic, bloated budget. > > The strongly approve/disapprove index for him is -12%, meaning 12% more people strongly disapprove of him than strongly approve. That sounds pretty bad - until you read that Obama’s was -13% at the same point in his Presidency. For those who are unfamiliar with the weeds of polling, Rasmussen has strong house effects: they tend to favor Republicans. They are not the worst poller - some polling outfits are suspected of literally fabricating data, using other firm’s results as a guide. 538’s algorithm weights polling outfits by their past performance in predicting elections. Rasmussen is a C+ outfit, while Gallup gets a B-. Not too different. The key value addition 538 offers is that they take an average of this volatile data, avoiding cherry picking effects (_cough_). Click the link if you want to compare Obama’s trend to Trump’s. Or any other recent President to Trump. Trump’s approval trend is substantially below all of them, with the exception of 1 brief period of Clinton’s and an extended period of Gerald Ford’s. Go to the bottom of the page: > **[How Popular Is Donald Trump?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo)** > > FiveThirtyEight is tracking Donald Trump’s approval ratings throughout his presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/354 "2018-04-02T22:54:16Z")
That was a nice way of pointing out the phenomenon of cherry picking. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2018, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/355 "2018-04-02T23:48:48Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > How would you define a “Trump Slump”? 1. He didn’t plunge the world into nuclear war today. 2. He didn’t get to personally execute one of those DACA wannabes who crossed the border yesterday. 3. He couldn’t goosestep his way along Pennsylvania Ave. in front of a military parade today. 4. The White House kitchen ran out of double-scoop vanilla ice cream. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/356 "2018-04-03T11:56:00Z")
Not as long as they can still find a way in their own minds to blame Obama somehow. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/357 "2018-04-03T12:14:27Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > For those who are unfamiliar with the weeds of polling, Rasmussen has strong house effects: they tend to favor Republicans. That’s especially true early in campaign season, then they gradually bring their reported results closer to honesty so that their final numbers, the ones that get the most attention, are not out of line with the rest of the polls. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/358 "2018-04-03T12:24:47Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > How would you define a “Trump Slump”? Probably when an actual politician can persuade the public at large they’re not blood sucking advocates for whoever bribes them the most. Trump is president - the part that made the difference and the core of his vote - because he is not a politician. That’s what you are reduced to. Good chance you’ll get a celebrity after Trump as well. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/359 "2018-04-03T15:53:17Z")
In other news, living proof that they really do stack shit that high: [Donald Trump Jr. Continues to Make Terrible Accessory Decisions](https://www.esquire.com/style/mens-fashion/a19665174/donald-trump-jr-deplorable-pin/) Nice to see him finally self-identifying. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2018, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/360 "2018-04-14T05:09:10Z")
There’s no Syria thread yet, so I’ll post it here. The Syrian bombing occurred about an hour ago. As of 9 hours ago, Trump’s trendline at 538 was 40.8% approval, 53.2% disapproval, netting out to -12.4%. This event should push Trump to a year-to-date high, I say. (Not hard as 538’s peak approval was 41.5%.) 45% would not shock me at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=19)