# Are we at Trump’s tipping point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2018, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944 "2018-03-21T03:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/401 "2018-04-15T15:56:58Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Call it a red line, call it whatever you like. Trump has tried to delegitimize the investigation and the investigators at every turn, using whatever bullshit excuse he can come up with. Oh, absolutely. And don’t get me wrong-- if Trump does fire Rosenstein, in order to fire Mueller, I expect it will be because of fear about exposure Trump has due to his shady/illegal business dealings. But the fact is, Trump has not " long declared a red line: Robert Mueller must not investigate his businesses" as Davidson reports in that link, above. As far as I can tell, he has never actually declared it even once. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/402 "2018-04-15T15:57:28Z")
In my post 399, Ponzi scheme not Pontiac scheme. Autocorrect was very persistent on that one, I corrected it twice and I thought it stuck but it changed back. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/403 "2018-04-15T15:58:52Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Trump voters have no reason to abandon Trump. And they won’t. But eventually, his policies are going to have consequences for the average person, and when they do, they’re going to blame him for their misery. I agree they don’t. If Trump goes down I think most of them hope he takes this scandalous nonsense of a political class with him; literally blow the political class into pieces and expose DC for the pig swilling anti-democratic sack of shit it is. Where are things now; $21 trillion down the river, 70-80% popular policy changes ignored, society picking up the Opiate tab, crumbling infrastructure, homeless encampments, Zuckerberg’s going to get back to Congress: WTF. > [@asahi](#): > > I am a fierce critic of the Bush administration, but I can at least acknowledge that during the last financial crisis, we were fortunate that Bush had at least reasonable and **competent** around him who understood that there was a time for ideology, and a time for dealing with reality. Don’t be ridiculous. He handed the Treasury over to Goldman Sachs and gave them the keys - essentially a coup: the outcome? Result prioritising stockholders not mortgagees. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/404 "2018-04-15T16:14:01Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Beyond the analysis of this, above, I have to correct something. > > To state it baldly, the Cohen raid was not, except very tangentially, Mueller’s doing. > > This has been very clear in the reporting if one pays attention. Mueller found something - we don’t know what - and reported it as he’s required to do. He sent it up the line for consideration. At that point, Mueller and the Russia investigation are completely out of the reportable picture. > > Each decision from that point on - consideration, decision to pursue warrants, decision to issue warrant, decision to raid all at once - was made by someone else. FBI, DoJ, judge, whatever. > > It’s pretty clear from this that whatever they were after - and again, we don’t yet know what that is - was not related to anything within Mueller’s purview. So tying this in your head’s - and anyone else’s head - to the Russia investigation, Mueller or Trump’s soi-disant ‘red line’ is entirely fallacious and does a disservice to the process. > > It also likely tells us that there are now TWO ongoing investigations into Trump’s activities. The Russia investigation led by Mueller and whatever the hell the FBI thinks they have from Cohen and company. Correct, but there is more to it than that, and it’s not good for Trump. The issue was referred to the NY State Justice Department, and is now a state matter. Which means Trump can’t issue pardons. And if Trump is implicated, we are now in territory that puts him outside whatever protection he might expect from the Federal DoJ. At the very least, that puts Cohen in very deep do-doo indeed! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/405 "2018-04-15T16:36:13Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … His public approval rating is nearing its high point for his entire presidency. … Besides the fact that his high point is a lower bar than usual, I think you have a strange definition of the word “nearing”. Using [the 538 tracker](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo), his high was 47.8 pretty much right after he was elected. He dropped to 44 and stayed there for a bit, then dropped more and since then has been in the 39 +/- 2.5 channel, today 40.6. A wee bit less than two months ago he was 41.5, which was the highest he hit since early May. Going back to Truman not one president has had as low of approval as this at this point in his presidency and none have even briefly gone so far down as his day on day negative net approval number, and we’ve had some pretty unpopular presidents. But that fairly narrow channel he’s traveled in can be flipped too: he has a pretty solid floor. Apparently a bit more than a third will approve of him no matter what. The analysis that **Measure for Measure** cites is quite cogent. Trump can, and might, fire Mueller, or replace Rod Rosenstein with someone he will fire Mueller. But stopping the separate investigation regarding Cohen’s criminal actions (and what they potentially may reveal of Trump’s criminality and/or that of his family) in the Justice Department would be a bigger obstructive lift. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/406 "2018-04-15T16:47:29Z")
The problem you have is the mainstream narrative - the corporate narrative - is determined to measure Trump’s performance as a conventional DC-minded president, and of cours to judge him by that measure as an historic failure. No one who voted for Trump gives a fuck abut that. He’s not there to be a great president. How many years before the Great Indignancy twig that. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/407 "2018-04-15T16:58:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > …which is why they’re not going to change their minds no matter what comes out of these investigations. What can change their minds is if they get the impression that Trump’s not such a tough guy, and what could really change their minds is if they realize that, actually, the federal government does impact their lives in ways they hadn’t imagined and it can royally rock their world to have the wrong people running it. Maybe. I’m afraid that they will just blame any problems on Obama and Hillary. Trump will say that he needs more time to fix the problems while he continues to erode the country and enrich himself. They will believe him. They’ve already shown how easily they are manipulated. He could be put in prison, but they will continue to believe that the ‘deep state’ put him there and he did nothing wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/408 "2018-04-15T17:42:23Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > … No one who voted for Trump gives a fuck abut that. He’s not there to be a great president. > > How many years before the Great Indignancy twig that. Try as I might I cannot grok that last sentence but the difference between your stated “no one” and the reality is significant. That 35ish% that is his floor does not give a fuck or a butt. The other near 15% that voted for him does. More important in every election though is who are in single largest group of those eligible to vote: the non-voters. A fair number of those who voted for Trump are likely to become non-voters. A fair number of last cycle non-voters are likely to become voters against Trump and his allies. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/409 "2018-04-15T18:59:43Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > In my post 399, Ponzi scheme not Pontiac scheme. Autocorrect was very persistent on that one, I corrected it twice and I thought it stuck but it changed back. That’s OK. People so rarely appreciate the danger of the Pontiac scheme. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/410 "2018-04-15T19:42:07Z")
It’s a helluva dodge, that one. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/411 "2018-04-15T19:47:14Z")
Even if you have to ford the river to dodge the danger. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/412 "2018-04-15T20:36:14Z")
> [@jasg](#): > > Even if you have to ford the river to dodge the danger. In the general, motors are not well-suited to fording rivers. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/413 "2018-04-15T21:08:19Z")
but a jaguar on this side of the river gives me the willys. ---
**Author:** ![Bumbershoot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bumbershoot/32/3428_2.png) [@Bumbershoot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bumbershoot)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/414 "2018-04-15T21:58:59Z")
Trump thought he could rule by fiat. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/415 "2018-04-15T22:59:33Z")
I have to say the Doper hive mind is way smarter than I am. Pending evidence to the contrary, I think we should set aside claims that Trump has an oft-stated red line. Modify it: Trump _should_ have a red line like this, because his private business adventures consisted of a chain of criminally burnt associates, searches for new marks, and dabbling with money laundered funds from oligarchs of the former Soviet Union. According to this view. But as **Jon Chance** and **EddyTeddyFreddy** might respond, “So what?” Mueller is the Russian connection guy. The investigation into Trump’s businesses is now a New York State matter, and much less susceptible to judicially obstructive firings or federal pardons. And according to Davidson, Trump’s criminality is probably worse than the public imagines, though I personally doubt whether it will reach Madoff levels. Basically it involves using international organized crime as a source of investment funds. That sounds bad, but it’s not like Trump was cavorting with drug-lords: this is the Russian and Ukrainian mafia, not the Cali drug cartel. I suspect Davidson predicts that the grind of the New York State criminal investigation of Michael Cohen will bend perceptions of Trump’s business background over time. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/416 "2018-04-15T23:03:24Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > I have to say the Doper hive mind is way smarter than I am. Pending evidence to the contrary, I think we should set aside claims that Trump has an oft-stated red line. > > Modify it: Trump _should_ have a red line like this, because his private business adventures consisted of a chain of criminally burnt associates, searches for new marks, and dabbling with money laundered funds from oligarchs of the former Soviet Union. According to this view. > > But as **Jon Chance** and **EddyTeddyFreddy** might respond, “So what?” Mueller is the Russian connection guy. The investigation into Trump’s businesses is now a New York State matter, and much less susceptible to judicially obstructive firings or federal pardons. > > And according to Davidson, Trump’s criminality is probably worse than the public imagines, though I personally doubt whether it will reach Madoff levels. Basically it involves using international organized crime as a source of investment funds. That sounds bad, but it’s not like Trump was cavorting with drug-lords: this is the Russian and Ukrainian mafia, not the Cali drug cartel. I suspect Davidson predicts that the grind of the New York State criminal investigation of Michael Cohen will bend perceptions of Trump’s business background over time. Would he lose support if it became undeniable that he made his “fortune” through funneling money for drug cartels and terrorist organizations? Or would that just be “smart”? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2018, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/417 "2018-04-15T23:59:09Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Would he lose support if it became undeniable that he made his “fortune” through funneling money for drug cartels and terrorist organizations? > > Or would that just be “smart”? Hard to say. Davidson doesn’t discuss polling explicitly. And we haven’t figured out the give and take between elite and public opinion. Two days ago David Frum, former speechwriter for GWBush and editor at _The Atlantic_ tweeted [this](https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/984859889351692288): “The most militant pro lifer I know just emailed me that he saw no legitimate public concern in an RNC official paying for an abortion.” LOLGOP: “Imagine being so against abortion, you want people executed over it but not so much against it that you’ll do everything you can to make sure everyone has birth control, sex education and health insurance.” [x.com](https://twitter.com/LOLGOP/status/982330038476558336) I debated conservatives for years at this message board. I’m not convinced we were having a real conversation. I may have been interacting with elaborate justifications for a weird sort of tribalism, or perhaps a prop for one core [proposition](https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/983563156776562689): “There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Not sure. At any rate in another week we’ll see if Syria moved Trump’s approvals upwards, and maybe even who swung. That would be a data point. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2018, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/418 "2018-04-16T01:40:02Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > But as **Jon Chance** and **EddyTeddyFreddy** might respond, “So what?” Mueller is the Russian connection guy. The investigation into Trump’s businesses is now a New York State matter, and much less susceptible to judicially obstructive firings or federal pardons. Heh Mueller isn’t done looking into Trump’s business affairs, nor do I think he will be until the investigation is done, or he’s fired, whichever comes first. Cohen is just the first shot, and Trump knows it. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2018, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/419 "2018-04-16T02:04:18Z")
I repeat, Mueller is not looking into his business other than tangentially as it relates to any investigation into Russian interference in the election. As we’ve already seen, he quickly drops anything he finds outside his specific purview onto others to pursue. I swear to God, it’s like speaking to the wind. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2018, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/420 "2018-04-16T03:24:51Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I repeat, Mueller is not looking into his business other than tangentially as it relates to any investigation into Russian interference in the election. As we’ve already seen, he quickly drops anything he finds outside his specific purview onto others to pursue. Probably, but with one caveat. The Mueller investigation has done [strikingly little leaking](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/who-is-richard-pinedo). So while they may have passed off parts of it to other parties, we can’t really say what will be in the final report. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=22)