# Are we at Trump’s tipping point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2018, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944 "2018-03-21T03:29:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/501 "2018-04-19T01:28:04Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > The factor you seem to be discounting is what Mueller has actually got, and the effect it will have (if any) on public perception. He hasn’t yet taken a single real shot. > > E.g., I heard recently that there may be a tape of Trump violently beating a woman in an elevator. I don’t know if it’s true. At this point, there’s no reason to believe it is, but there was a time when few believed there could be a pee tape, either. If such a tape did exist and made its way into the public domain, might that change some minds? > > Suppose Mueller has solid evidence of staggering, deep cooperation with Russians. Say, an irrefutable document trail of Trump’s organization directly paying Russian trolls. To this let’s add unimpeachable evidence of extensive money laundering, fraud, bribery, sexual deviation of all sorts of which Russians have evidence, and such evidence could be used to manipulate/blackmail Trump. Might that change some minds? > > I just don’t think you have the full picture of how the electorate is going to react until you have the total evidence of Mueller’s probe. One of the main reasons Republicans have been able to manipulate the narrative is because Mueller has remained quiet as he does his work. > > When he picks his moment, he will get it out there, one way or another. Even some Republicans may recoil. His supporters will simply either rationalize it away or refuse to believe it. They’ve done it many times before, they’ll do it again. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/502 "2018-04-19T01:36:39Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Even if the House and Senate actually do flip, it still may not matter. The Senate may not flip enough to actually follow through on a conviction. I suppose the assumption is that the Republican Senators will see the error of their ways and have a come to Reagan moment. That’s possible, but the Republicans would have to abandon their mega donors and become a completely different party between now and 2020, and I don’t think that’s going to happen. I don’t see impeachment as the end goal or even per se desirable. Preventing some of the harm that Trump (or Pence) would cause is much more important. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/503 "2018-04-19T01:38:03Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > His supporters will simply either rationalize it away or refuse to believe it. They’ve done it many times before, they’ll do it again. I agree there is a hard kernel of support and it will not go away. I just don’t think it’s anything close to a majority. And I believe that at some point, even Republican senators will have a breaking point. To quote an anonymous Republican member of the House as recently reported by Erik Erickson, “Judiciary is stacked with a bunch of people who can win re-election so long as they don’t piss off Trump voters in the primary. But if we get to summer and most of the primaries are over, they just might pull the trigger if the President fires Mueller. The shit will hit the fan if that happens and **I’d vote to impeach him myself. Most of us would, I think. Hell, all the Democrats would and you only need a majority in the House. If we’re going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherfucker.** Take him out with us and let Mike [Pence] take over. At least then we could sleep well at night.” (Emphasis mine.) I do not believe this is an uncommon sentiment, in either the House or the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/504 "2018-04-19T01:44:18Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I don’t see impeachment as the end goal or even per se desirable. Preventing some of the harm that Trump (or Pence) would cause is much more important. Hence the need for impeachment regardless of the impossibility of conviction. It’d be nice to hold R Senators’ feet to the fire for their votes too, but I doubt that’ll have any effect whatsoever. > [@Aspenglow](#): > > I agree there is a hard kernel of support and it will not go away. I just don’t think it’s anything close to a majority. And I believe that at some point, even Republican senators will have a breaking point. > > To quote an anonymous Republican member of the House as recently reported by Erik Erickson, “Judiciary is stacked with a bunch of people who can win re-election so long as they don’t piss off Trump voters in the primary. But if we get to summer and most of the primaries are over, they just might pull the trigger if the President fires Mueller. The shit will hit the fan if that happens and **I’d vote to impeach him myself. Most of us would, I think. Hell, all the Democrats would and you only need a majority in the House. If we’re going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherfucker.** Take him out with us and let Mike [Pence] take over. At least then we could sleep well at night.” (Emphasis mine.) > > I do not believe this is an uncommon sentiment, in either the House or the Senate. Yeah, I read that rant. I just think that the difference between thought and action is a gulf that’s far too wide for the CYA Pubbies to cross. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/505 "2018-04-19T01:54:52Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > I agree there is a hard kernel of support and it will not go away. I just don’t think it’s anything close to a majority. And I believe that at some point, even Republican senators will have a breaking point. > > To quote an anonymous Republican member of the House as recently reported by Erik Erickson, “Judiciary is stacked with a bunch of people who can win re-election so long as they don’t piss off Trump voters in the primary. But if we get to summer and most of the primaries are over, they just might pull the trigger if the President fires Mueller. The shit will hit the fan if that happens and **I’d vote to impeach him myself. Most of us would, I think. Hell, all the Democrats would and you only need a majority in the House. If we’re going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherfucker.** Take him out with us and let Mike [Pence] take over. At least then we could sleep well at night.” (Emphasis mine.) > > I do not believe this is an uncommon sentiment, in either the House or the Senate. I just don’t buy it. The Republicans fall into one of two categories: In the first category, there are Republicans with a few principles, but they are ultimately weak, pathetic, cowardly wussies who rather than fight for their beliefs are simply, well, quitting like little bitch men (Jeff Flake, Charlie Dent, Bob Corker, Paul Ryan…). They’re quitting because they know that they can’t win primaries in their own party. They’re quitting because they know that if they fight the evil that’s in their own party…they **lose**. That leaves the scumbags running the party. That leaves people like House members like Devin Nunes. That leaves governors like Eric Greitens. That only encourages people like Roy Moore to run. Moore lost because he was a sexual predator, but not to fear, they apparently found someone they like even better to be the face of the party’s future: a West Virginia coal baron who’s convicted of killing his own workers – and he’s doing surprisingly (or not so) well. Trump’s not going anywhere. Not until the people finally wake up and realize that he’s robbing them blind. And that’ll take a while I’m afraid. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/506 "2018-04-19T01:58:20Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Yeah, I read that rant. I just think that the difference between thought and action is a gulf that’s far too wide for the CYA Pubbies to cross. And you may be right. We just don’t yet know – that’s my point. I think many disregard the potential impact that the results of Mueller’s investigation may have. I personally believe it could be devastating, and perhaps enough people will rediscover their humanity. Re Republican CYA, how easy for them to say, “My GOD!! We had no idea!!” There’s another data point that I think is underestimated: Trump is a repetitive, empty tune that eventually starts to grate. Again, that hard kernel of support will never stray, but for some – hopefully enough – they’ll get sick of hearing that same old stupid song. We’re already seeing his support erode among independents and Republican women. Just offering a different perspective. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/507 "2018-04-19T02:04:18Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I just don’t buy it. > > The Republicans fall into one of two categories: > > In the first category, there are Republicans with a few principles, but they are ultimately weak, pathetic, cowardly wussies who rather than fight for their beliefs are simply, well, quitting like little bitch men (Jeff Flake, Charlie Dent, Bob Corker, Paul Ryan…). They’re quitting because they know that they can’t win primaries in their own party. They’re quitting because they know that if they fight the evil that’s in their own party…they **lose**. > > **That leaves the scumbags running the party. That leaves people like House members like Devin Nunes. That leaves governors like Eric Greitens. That only encourages people like Roy Moore to run. Moore lost because he was a sexual predator, but not to fear, they apparently found someone they like even better to be the face of the party’s future: a West Virginia coal baron who’s convicted of killing his own workers – and he’s doing surprisingly (or not so) well.** > > Trump’s not going anywhere. Not until the people finally wake up and realize that he’s robbing them blind. And that’ll take a while I’m afraid. Oh, I encourage those guys to run. They’re the ones who will win a Republican primary and allow Democrats like Joe Manchin to win in the general. Why do you think [the **Republican Party** is running ads against the coal baron](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2018/04/16/gop-launches-secret-group-to-attack-west-virginia-coal-baron-170071)? (Politico) It’s exactly guys like this who will hand the Senate to Dems. And the GOP knows it. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/508 "2018-04-19T02:25:04Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > His supporters will simply either rationalize it away or refuse to believe it. They’ve done it many times before, they’ll do it again. If they even hear the facts. If they get their info from Faux News, they won’t. And if they happen to glance at any MSM outlet, they’ll just scream “fake news!” and move along. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/509 "2018-04-19T09:36:56Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Oh, I encourage those guys to run. They’re the ones who will win a Republican primary and allow Democrats like Joe Manchin to win in the general. Why do you think [the **Republican Party** is running ads against the coal baron](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2018/04/16/gop-launches-secret-group-to-attack-west-virginia-coal-baron-170071)? (Politico) It’s exactly guys like this who will hand the Senate to Dems. And the GOP knows it. Don Blankenship is running for Joe Manchin’s seat, so they lose nothing by supporting him – and the GOP will support him, even if just quietly. What’s important isn’t so much the individual races themselves, but the changing nature of the Republican party itself. The GOP has the political power in this country, and they’re going to go to extraordinary lengths to keep it. They don’t care if they break the law or break democracy to win elections - whatever it takes to keep their grip on power. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/510 "2018-04-19T11:28:03Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > **LHoD** was talking about the some specific actions by ICE. In case I wasn’t clear, I was asking what it is about those particular actions that qualifies as: “This does not feel like anything I’ve ever experienced in my life. For the first time in my life, I feel like Weimar Germany.” [Upstate NY farmer says ICE officers stormed his farm without a warrant, cuffed him, threw his phone](http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/upstate_ny_farmer_says_ice_officers_stormed_his_farm_without_a_warrant_cuffed_hi.html) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/511 "2018-04-19T13:41:42Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > [Upstate NY farmer says ICE officers stormed his farm without a warrant, cuffed him, threw his phone](http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/upstate_ny_farmer_says_ice_officers_stormed_his_farm_without_a_warrant_cuffed_hi.html) Your link isn’t letting me in, but just to be clear: Is it your contention that something like this has never happened in the US before Trump became president? [Here’s a lawsuit filed in 2012](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/sites/default/files/litigation_documents/complaint_against_ice_5-31-12.pdf), just FYI. That took me 5 seconds on Google. I can get more if you’d like. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/512 "2018-04-19T14:03:33Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Your link isn’t letting me in, but just to be clear: Is it your contention that something like this has never happened in the US before Trump became president? [Here’s a lawsuit filed in 2012](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/sites/default/files/litigation_documents/complaint_against_ice_5-31-12.pdf), just FYI. That took me 5 seconds on Google. I can get more if you’d like. I’m not going to read a 50 page lawsuit. Summarize the parts you think are relevant, or link to a news article. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/513 "2018-04-19T14:38:27Z")
Oh c’mon people. Of course ICE raids have occurred before Trump … and they are much more frequent and less discriminant now. Obama instructed that ICE prioritize deportation efforts of those with criminal records. Trump greenlit arresting and deporting anyone who seems to be from a “shithole” no matter what the backlog is. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/514 "2018-04-19T14:42:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Oh c’mon people. > > Of course ICE raids have occurred before Trump … and they are much more frequent and less discriminant now. And Trump’s ICE doesn’t bother with warrants. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/515 "2018-04-19T15:27:04Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > … they are much more frequent and less discriminant now. … Cite? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/516 "2018-04-19T15:39:30Z")
More frequent: > [@](#): > > Immigration and Customs Enforcement, whose officers pick up people for deportation away from the border, made 143,470 arrests, an increase of 25 percent from 114,434 a year earlier. After Trump took office, ICE arrests surged 40 percent from the same period a year earlier. Less discriminating: > [@](#): > > In February, then-Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly scrapped the previous administration’s instructions to limit deportations to public safety threats, convicted criminals and recent border crossers… [Link](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ice-deportation-arrests-soar-under-trump-administration-drop-border-arrests-n826596) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/517 "2018-04-19T15:48:36Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Fine, how happy do you think “mega donors” are with Trump right now? **Or do you assume that the congressional enabling thus far means that they have marching orders from said donors to leave Trump alone**? Yes, that’s precisely the point. Some of the donors, like the Mercers, are involved in the Russia collusion scandal. Others, like the Kochs, see Republican power as an extension of theirs. What they want is to corrupt American democracy to the point of giving Americans at least some illusion of a democracy but one that basically strips power away from the average person and allows them to pollute water, air, and soil. They want a world without public education, public hospitals, public institutions. A world without medicare and social security and basic labor rights. They want the 40 hour work week and minimum wages replaced with 80 hour work weeks, child labor, and no worker protections. Given long enough, these Republicans will give them whatever they want. Looking for proof? Look who’s staying in the Republican party and who’s leaving office for good. The so-called honorable Republicans are gone - they can’t get funding for re-election and even those who aren’t up for re-election know that it’s not their party anymore. The party belongs to the Kochs, the Mercers, and a host of other mega donors. They can’t exactly tiptoe back to the center. They wouldn’t survive a primary for one thing, and even if they did, throughout much of the country the Democratic party - for now - quietly holds the advantage in the center, if for no other reason than the fact that their party – again, for now – allows their candidates some flexibility. Having said that, if the Bernie Bros and Jill Stein wings of the progressive left start insisting on ideological purity, then all bets are off. It’s essentially a multi-party dynamic. Anything can happen then. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/518 "2018-04-19T15:57:34Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > More frequent: > > Less discriminating: > > [Link](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ice-deportation-arrests-soar-under-trump-administration-drop-border-arrests-n826596) Thanks! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2018, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944/519 "2018-04-19T16:19:58Z")
I’m not as impressed by the statistics concerning border arrests as your side because all it tells me is that there are fewer border guards; they’ve probably been pulled away to trespass on others’ property and kidnap upstate New York farm workers and other bad hombres [like so](http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2018/04/upstate_ny_farmer_says_ice_officers_stormed_his_farm_without_a_warrant_cuffed_hi.html). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-at-trump-s-tipping-point/810944.md?page=25)