# Are we being naive about the possibility of Egyptian "democracy"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 4, 2011, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179 "2011-02-04T18:03:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/121 "2011-02-07T03:22:41Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > Yeah, Muslims are free to do their own thing in their own countries. Here in the USA, genital mutilation isn’t allowed. I was circumcised when I was a child. ---
**Author:** ![Valteron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/f17d59/32.png) [@Valteron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Valteron)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/122 "2011-02-07T03:22:52Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Also, dude, you live in Canada so why would you possibly be worried about your nation being conquered by Muslims? > > You might as well worry about a Mormon takeover of North America. Yeah, right, nothing to worry about, is there? Just like the Christians in Egypt said from 632 to 661 A.D. Just like the people in Spain said: Muslim take-over, don’t be ridiculous. And what did Khaddafi mean when he said Europe would be conquered not by the sword but by the Muslim birthrate. But don’t worry folks! Relax! That’s it! If the people of Ontario had not risen up in 2005, our spineless appeaser government would have allowed Sharia Courts. But just relax. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/123 "2011-02-07T03:35:41Z")
> [@Valteron](#): > > Just like the Christians in Egypt said from 632 to 661 A.D. Just like the people in Spain said: Muslim take-over, don’t be ridiculous. Iran is planning on invading across the pond :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Valteron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/f17d59/32.png) [@Valteron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Valteron)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/124 "2011-02-07T03:41:20Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Iran is planning on invading across the pond :dubious: Read a few demographics about Muslim birth-rates in Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/125 "2011-02-07T03:50:11Z")
> [@Valteron](#): > > Read a few demographics about Muslim birth-rates in Europe. Muslims are something like 4% of Europe. Anyone who honestly is afraid that Europe will be taking over Europe is either paranoid, a bigot, stupid, or some combination of the above. Like I said, you might as well be terrified of the Mormons taking over North America, or even just the US. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/126 "2011-02-07T03:51:13Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > you rag heads are so damn nervy…changing history everytime you find it convenient. > [@AshenLady](#): > > You Islamofascists see Jews as fodder for ovens in Europe, where you’d like Jews to go back to and let the populace finish off the rest of the Jewish race and if you could arrange it, somehow, it would have already been done. > [@AshenLady](#): > > I am a citizen of the USA. Israel is the place I go to when you Muslims have conspired to brainwash the rest of the world to destroy Jews everywhere. **AshenLady** , the personal insults you’ve posted are not appropriate for Great Debates and the slurs against Muslims do not belong on this website. I’m giving you a formal warning here. [Read the Registration Agreement](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=423183) and do not post anything like this again. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/127 "2011-02-07T04:13:50Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Muslims are something like 4% of Europe. > > \*\*Anyone who honestly is afraid that Europe will be taking over Europe is either paranoid, a bigot, stupid, or some combination of the above. \*\* > > Like I said, you might as well be terrified of the Mormons taking over North America, or even just the US. The above passage is a bit too harsh. Yes, I suppose it’s possible to believe that Muslims will take over Europe without being being bigoted or stupid. However, I will say that anyone who insists that’s the case is really ignorant of the actual demographics of Europe and who insists that Muslims who represent no more that 4-6% of the population of most European countries might conceivably take over even when presented with this is aggressively in denial of reality and highly resistant to logic. That is not the same as being stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/128 "2011-02-07T04:38:26Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > The above passage is a bit too harsh. Yes, I suppose it’s possible to believe that Muslims will take over Europe without being being bigoted or stupid. > > However, I will say that anyone who insists that’s the case is really ignorant of the actual demographics of Europe and who insists that Muslims who represent no more that 4-6% of the population of most European countries might conceivably take over even when presented with this is aggressively in denial of reality and highly resistant to logic. That is not the same as being stupid. Muslim birthrates are starting to fall steadily. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/129 "2011-02-07T07:07:55Z")
[As a general principle](http://www.globalissues.org/article/206/poverty-and-population-growth-lessons-from-our-own-past) birth rates are higher in poorer and less educated populations. As the Muslim populations (both in the West and elsewhere in the world) become more well educated, and in particular, as Muslim women become more well educated, the birth rate is highly likely to decrease. > [@](#): > > In one study after another, women’s education turns out to be a powerful predictor of lower fertility. As women’s schooling increases, fertility typically falls. In fact it [is being seen already.](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41302545/ns/world_news-europe/) > [@](#): > > “The declining growth rate is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries,” it said, noting the birth rate is falling as more Muslim women are educated, living standards rise and rural people move to cities. … Alan Cooperman, Pew Forum associate director for research, said the results refuted claims made by some critics of Muslim immigration that high birth rates would make Muslims the majority in Europe within a few decades. > Muslim minorities will grow to around 10 percent of the population in several European countries, he said, adding: “Those are substantial increases but they are very far from ‘Eurabia’ scenario of runaway growth.” … “The slowdown in Muslim population growth is most pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East-North Africa and Europe, and less sharp in sub-Saharan Africa,” it said, while migration will accelerate it in the Americas through 2020. Honestly, if you are afraid of being taken over by hoards of Muslims, you should work hard to get those in your country well educated and well employed. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/130 "2011-02-07T07:48:38Z")
> [@Valteron](#): > > I think there is much rational fear about an uncompromising, barbaric ideology determined to bring the world under its control. It is not Islamophobia when they are really out to get you. And since “they” are NOT “out to get” us, then it really is Islamophobia. I’m glad we cleared that up. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/131 "2011-02-07T08:17:07Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > so you are dishonest in your presentation. . . . > > Which is nothing but trying to lie about the conditions, . . . > . . . but you try to slime and smear with great dishonesty. > > Why do you lie about this? [Do not accuse other posters of lying](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=448632) in the Great Debates forum. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Sr\_Siete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6de8d8/32.png) [@Sr\_Siete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sr_Siete)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/132 "2011-02-07T09:57:14Z")
> [@Valteron](#): > > Just like the people in Spain said: Muslim take-over, don’t be ridiculous. Yeah. Stupid Al-Andalus and their Algebra, better irrigation systems, prettier buildings and generally being less bloody and more civilized than the Romans that invaded before them or even the ensuing centuries of Medieval Catholicism. How dare they. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/133 "2011-02-07T10:17:12Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > but don’t try to make such atrocities legal here in the USA, using Sharia Law to overtake the constitution as you have managed to screw up the legal system in England with your barbaric ideologies. I live in the UK and so am going to want to see some damn good cites for that insane statement. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/134 "2011-02-07T15:17:04Z")
> [@Valteron](#): > > Read a few demographics about Muslim birth-rates in Europe. Why are you assuming I did not read the thread and am unaware of birth rates in Europe? Do you mistake me for an idiot? You claimed this was **JUST** like the invasions. It is not. Invasions are violent and sudden. So assuming you are as ill-read as you think me, I ask you to read up on “Cultural Assimilation”. I know you probably have arguments against that already in your brain but since you insulted me I can do the same. ---
**Author:** ![NCDane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecccb3/32.png) [@NCDane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NCDane)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/135 "2011-02-07T23:28:22Z")
[QUOTE=El\_Kabong] Sorry, there doesn’t seem to be a ‘serious’ smiley, so you’ll just have to take my word that I’ve got my serious face on. I still must consider your view (and more to the point, that of the OP) to be bigoted. [/QUOTE] Fine, I’ll deal with it. [QUOTE=El\_Kabong] That’s not an either/or proposition. [/QUOTE] Well, to truly refine my position I guess I would have to qualify it by suggesting something like: “assume all of us are otherwise unbigoted”. [QUOTE=El\_Kabong] You seem to be contending that the Islamic religion is responsible for the 80% or so of Egyptian poll respondents who express support for nasty thigs like stoning of adulterers and killing of apostates. Yet, from the data that you yourself posted in the related Pit thread, we see the following…So, given the above, how do you explain the wide variation from country to country? [/QUOTE] I do not need to explain it if Islam is the sole common denominator among people who support judicial capital punishment for apostasy and adultery. I hope the next poll asks the same questions of Copts, Balinese, Ibo, and other non-Muslims. I think it is a safe guess that nowhere remotely near the average Muslim numbers would be obtained from Christians, Jews, and Buddhists. I doubt they would even be close to the Turkish numbers. I am less confident about Hinduism, but Hinduism lacks Islam’s messianic fervor. [QUOTE=El\_Kabong] is Islam a completely different religion in Turkey and Indonesia? [/QUOTE] Is Christianity a completely different religion at Westboro and Canterbury? No, because belief in the Bible as exclusive holy scripture and belief in the preeminence of the ministry of Christ are what define a Christian, but interpretation of they say may vary greatly. [QUOTE=El\_Kabong] Is it at all possible that there may be other cultural factors, such as level of education and/or income, in play here? [/QUOTE] Out of curiosity I put together an expanded data table including four of the richest Muslims countries for reasons explained below. The column heading capital letters are code for the following; A = % positive response to the two poll questions B = Muslim population C = per capita income ($PPP) D = life expectancy male E = life expectancy female F = literacy male G = literacy female **DAMMIT!!!** I am having a f\*cking bitch of a time formatting it here. Such a bitch of a time that I am going to have to put off getting it right until later, out of consideration for my blood pressure. Here it is in buggered up form: ``` A B C D E F G ``` Turkey 5-16 77 13,392 71.1 75.3 96.0 80.4 Lebanon 6-23 2 14,988 73.2 76.3 73.3 76.3Indonesia 30-42 209 4,376 68.5 73.7 94.0 86.8 Nigeria 51-56 76 2,400 51.6 51.6 71.3 62.4 Jordan 86-70 6 5,956 78.6 81.2 95.1 84.7 Pakistan 76-82 175 2,713 66.7 67.2 69.0 45.0 Egypt 84-82 72 6,347 69.5 72.2 83.0 59.4 Qatar 2 90,149 Kuwait 4 38,984 United Arab Emirates 5 36,175 Saudi Arabia 20 23,701 It might be possible to read it by viewing it through the reply with quote function. It has always pissed me off that internet chatroom software does not support easy posting of tabular data. We need expert commentary on the expanded data. Naively speaking there appears to me to be weak to no correlation with health and education but that a limited case might be made for income. However, the wealthiest echelon of Muslin states was not polled, and since these total tens of millions of people enjoying per capita income much higher than that of Turkey I doubt a scientifically valid case for the significance of income can be made without them. In my opinion Turkey’s low numbers are most likely the result of its post WW1 revolution. The revolution removed Islam from a position of authority even to the extent of abolishing the Caliphate, an institution well over 1000 years old. Politics and education were rigorously secularized, and even Muslim dress such as the fez were discouraged or banned. While similar impositions had been made by European colonial powers throughout their empires, the Turkish case was critically different in that revolution was imposed from within, and under the leadership of the incomparable Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a military and political genius of the highest order. Ataturk’s ability and popularity so completely transcended all others that he was never seriously challenged to the end of his life in 1938. Not only that but he left his partisans strong enough to safeguard his legacy. Unfortunately, signs of brittleness have developed in that legacy in the last 10-20 years, speaking of poll results. If every majority Muslim state had had an Ataturk to lead them ca. 1920-1938 then not only might the poll numbers under review in this thread be much lower, but Islam might not be the threat to the international order which it undoubtedly is today. The reason would lie not in various nebulous “cultural” factors, but in effective separation of religion and state. Alas, such leaders as Ataturk are all too rare. [QUOTE=El\_Kabong] For me, to take a limited subset of behaviors and attempt to assign those behaviors to everyone in a much larger, arbitrarily-defined group is bigotry. Perhaps you have a different definition. [/QUOTE] What is “arbitrarily defined” about the Muslim congregation of the world? I am sure you do not really believe your own words. The phrase “limited subset ” is the rhetorical equivalent of “trivial”, and we are not discussing some trivialities, as you well know. The right of apostasy is a foundation of religious freedom, and religious freedom is as important as any freedom, is it not? I view murdering apostates for the exercise of such freedom as a moral transgression of the utmost gravity, how about you? Poll results indicate that immoral homicidal predisposition characterizes about half the Muslims of the world, several 100s million adults. Trivialization of such numbers is bizarre, or to put it less nicely, it is…well, never mind for now. Adultery is a much less attractive defendant, since it usually involves culpable breach of trust. However, I do not think it should be criminalized, and I have little doubt you would agree with me. Therefore making it a capital crime is really off the deep end, right? And since there are sure to be 100s of millions of transgressors in the world (hell, there might be a _billion_ of them) it will not really do to mischaracterize the issue by calling it a “limited subset”, will it? [QUOTE=El\_Kabong] You seem to be blaming Islam for the beliefs of the Egyptian poll respondent assholes, while you are not blaming Christianity for the beliefs of the Westboro Baptist assholes. That’s a significant difference, and relative numbers do seem to be a determining factor in your mind. [/QUOTE] Yes, relative numbers are a determining factor in my mind: Westboro is a despised fringe of a few dozen people, whereas the poll numbers are solid evidence of mainstream Muslim opinion, numbering in the 100s of millions. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2011, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/136 "2011-02-07T23:44:31Z")
[Here’s an example](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201127162644461244.html) of the kind of thing that gives me hope for emergent Egypt. > [@Gregg Carlstrom / Al Jazeera](#): > > It will likely be weeks before the world knows whether pro-democracy protesters in Egypt have successfully dislodged their president, but whether or not they achieve that goal, they have already succeeded in offering a new model for a more engaged Egypt. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/137 "2011-02-08T02:23:47Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > For me, to take a limited subset of behaviors and attempt to assign those behaviors to everyone in a much larger, arbitrarily-defined group is bigotry. Perhaps you have a different definition. No one is doing that. No one is saying that even if a behavior is common in a subset—or even very common—that all people in that group, never mind a larger group to which they belong, will display that behavior. Again, no one is saying that! The only point is that a particular attribute is more common (significantly) in one subset than another. Then you look at the common denominator and try to figure out why. ---
**Author:** ![Lochdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/edb3f5/32.png) [@Lochdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lochdale)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/138 "2011-02-08T05:35:50Z")
> [@Sr\_Siete](#): > > Yeah. Stupid Al-Andalus and their Algebra, better irrigation systems, prettier buildings and generally being less bloody and more civilized than the Romans that invaded before them or even the ensuing centuries of Medieval Catholicism. How dare they. Might require it’s own thread but why did these societies fall so far? ---
**Author:** ![Capitaine\_Zombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@Capitaine\_Zombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capitaine_Zombie)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/139 "2011-02-08T06:31:50Z")
> [@NCDane](#): > > Out of curiosity I put together an expanded data table including four > of the richest Muslims countries for reasons explained below. > The column heading capital letters are code for the following; > > A = % positive response to the two poll questions > B = Muslim population > C = per capita income ($PPP) > D = life expectancy male > E = life expectancy female > F = literacy male > G = literacy female > > Here it is in buggered up form: > > **Nigeria** Nigeria is a muslim country now? Darn, must have changed a lot since the time I was living there. Or maybe you’re just one of those rabid Islamophobes that spend their time behind a computer compiling data about how the mooslims are bad, but not understanding one bit of the info you’re collecting. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179/140 "2011-02-08T08:11:14Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > The only point is that a particular attribute is more common (significantly) in one subset than another. Then you look at the common denominator and try to figure out why. We’ve done that in previous threads, but the people with a need to fear Islam always throw out the data and bring it back to it being a problem with “Islam,” ignoring the differences among various separate Muslim communities as well as the similarities between locations where there has been social and cultural disruption. \* ::: shrug ::: \* You see what you want to see. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-being-naive-about-the-possibility-of-egyptian-democracy/570179.md?page=8)