Well, many were hoping that the fear mongering would catch on but it didnt. Its a no story yet it lives in almost every article I`m reading. Big, nasty red herring.
I can. The military now effectively runs the country, which was all along the more or less expected (and even hoped-for) outcome; if the structural problems afflicting Egypt are not solved, and the military continues to rule without meaningful reform, the military will not long retain popularity or legitimacy. A possible scenario is that the mass, now without a military ‘honest broker’, may turn for leadership to the one organization which has an Egypt-wide grass-roots organization. This doesn’t mean that the MB would succeed, but if the confidence of the rank-and-file are sufficently shaken, one could see parts of the military simply refusing to contest the matter.
Naturally, all of this could be averted by meaningful reforms, but it remains at least a possibility.
But Egypt has effectively been under military rule for 60 years and has a host of structural problems. That hasn’t diminished the popularity of the military or really made the Muslim brotherhood particularly popular. After the election the military will probably take a backseat and any problems will be blamed on the civilian governments. If anything you may see brief stints of military rule if civilian governments lose their legitimacy but a MB violent takeover is extremely far-fetched. A country like Pakistan has far worse structural problems than Egypt and is still far off from an Islamic fundamentalist takeover and a Pakistan-type political situation is a worst-case scenario for Egypt.
The military has not directly ruled. Hence it makes some sort of sense for the current celebrations, in which Mubarak resigning (and the military taking over) appears as some sort of change.
I am not saying that a MB takeover is the probable outcome. I am making a lesser claim - that it is not an impossible one, in spite of their relative lack of popularity. I would say that a Turkey-like situation, with the military “stepping in” to prevent the civilian gov’t from getting too off-kilter, is the more probable.
Let’s hope Sandmonkey’s words were listened to, that people are getting organized and forming a centralist party, and that the soccer clubs remain connected.
… cause if you want grass roots, there it is.
Yes, but. You’re forgetting that this (“glorious”) revolution would not have been successful, had the military decided to back the regime with force. Their decision to stay out of it was absolutely vital. Needless to say, that decision would not survive a serious public attack on the military.
I would love to have a secret recording’s POV of the various conversations that went on behind the scenes between the various elements in the military, Mubrarak, and various international leaders.
Just remember, this is the same military that would have happily stood behind Mubarak and transitioned in another crony, if the people had not responded with increased numbers as they did. There is still the very real possibility of “Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.” Just enough superficial changes to satisfy but no more.
Best case is we end up with something that looks a lot like Turkey.
As what happens to Mubarak - so long as he doesn’t take the bulk of his plunders with him they should let live a quiet retired life in or out of Egypt.
Mubarak is not out of the country. He could turn into another Putin using the corrupt police force that exists in Egypt.
The military was at the heart of the regime though it didn’t rule directly. Mubarak like Sadat and Nasser before him came from the military as did many other senior figures like Tantavi. Besides it is unlikely there will be direct military rule beyond the transition period and civilians will probably play a bigger role than ever before after the elections. The military will become a powerful and popular institution behind the scenes likely to be insulated from any unpopular decisions taken by civilian governments. They may intervene from time to time but if they are smart they will quickly move back behind the scenes. It’s hard to see how that leaves a plausible opening for the Brotherhood.
I don’t think a Brotherhood takeover is literally impossible either; just highly unlikely. Like I said a plausible worst-case scenario would be Pakistan where the military has ruled directly for a decade at a time and where Islamic extremism is quite a problem but a full-scale extremist takeover is still unlikely. A best case scenario would be Turkey and realistically Egypt will probably be somewhere in between.
If you look at the modern history of Muslim countries there are all sorts of structural problems and most of the militaries are much weaker than Egypt’s and yet full scale Islamic government is very rare and when it happens a product of special circumstances like Iran and Afghanistan which don’t apply to Egypt. Most Muslim governments, whether authoritarian or democratic, are very good at keeping Islamic fundamentalists out of power and there is no particular reason to believe Egypt will be an exception in the future.
Of course … but the issue here is just how separate the military is from the executive. The military may not have intervened because they figured that tossing Mubarak to the mob would appease their anger without reducing the respect in which the military is held; the military can continue to rule … after the glorious revolution.
However, if the underlying problems are not addressed, the situation may change.