Are we going to see internationally enforced "Carbon Laws"?

Great Debates
21

Re: Hydro power in the United States, from what I understand the biggest river sources have already been tapped. Future gains using the large centralized power station concept would be based on oceanic tidal plants while elsewhere the market could grow at the local level by micro-hydro in streams and whatnot.

I share Derleth’s fears over the electrical grid. I don’t really see why it wouldn’t technically be possible to expand and strengthen it. But it doesn’t seem like a very sexy issue. But I’d hope if we start making a ton of electrical cars it might get a little more attention.

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[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
And as far as the international community enforcing laws on the US goes; if things get bad enough, you’'ll see things like a worldwide embargo on American trade, regardless of the economic consequenses.
[/QUOTE]

Will we see a ‘worldwide’ embargo on Chinese trade as well (since they ARE the number one CO2 producer now…the US is actually dropping off lately)? How about India?

Even if this was more than the standard Der Trihs fantasy, and countries were literally willing to cut their own throats economically to Save The Planet™, who would the ‘good’ countries trade WITH? China has huge markets in Europe…and the US is the biggest market on the planet. Where are those good little Euro’s going to sell their goodies too? Japan? Korea? Themselves? Where are they going to buy all the stuff they currently buy from countries like China and India…and the US?

Please try and at least make a token effort to ground things in this universes version of reality, ehe?

-XT

23

What Exit?: Yes, I share all of your hopes. I’m just a skeptical old cynic with major pessimism thrown in to boot. For example, we’ll all be long dead before fusion ever becomes practical, especially given that satellite-based solar (orbiting solar panels sending down energy in tight microwave beams) is on a surer theoretical footing. I’m really happy coal is as cheap and clean-burning as it is, because that’s the next century. Maybe longer.

24

[QUOTE=Derleth]
What Exit?: Yes, I share all of your hopes. I’m just a skeptical old cynic with major pessimism thrown in to boot. For example, we’ll all be long dead before fusion ever becomes practical, especially given that satellite-based solar (orbiting solar panels sending down energy in tight microwave beams) is on a surer theoretical footing. I’m really happy coal is as cheap and clean-burning as it is, because that’s the next century. Maybe longer.
[/QUOTE]

I understand, I am neither an angry young man anymore nor as much an optimist. I used to believe the “US != Good” and “humans collectively were rational” and “technology will solve all of our problem” and that Green issues were mostly common sense.

On the Electrical distribution, there are some major feasible changes coming up that with increase our distribution capabilities while reducing the electrical loss over long transmission lines. I will have to go digging for it, but NY state was running a new low resistance long transmission line that should be up and running or will be shortly. Another proposal is for superconducting transmission lines that could cut electrical loss by 50%. This will apparently be commercially feasible long before Fusion, however, I don’t know if it is 10 years away or 30.

My Google-Fu is worthless today and I cannot track down a cite. Maybe someone else knows of the project I am talking about.

Jim

25

[QUOTE=xtisme]
Will we see a ‘worldwide’ embargo on Chinese trade as well (since they ARE the number one CO2 producer now…the US is actually dropping off lately)? How about India?
[/quote]
If things get bad enough, yes. If we have the worldwide disaster scenario I was speaking of, any country that continues making the situation worse is going to be an international pariah.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
Even if this was more than the standard Der Trihs fantasy, and countries were literally willing to cut their own throats economically to Save The Planet™, who would the ‘good’ countries trade WITH?
[/quote]
Each other, obviously. And their economies will ALREADY be in ruins in such a disaster scenario; they would have a lot of incentive to stop doing what brought them to that state. And we aren’t talking about them trying to “save the planet”, which isn’t in danger anyway; we are talking about them trying to save themselves.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
China has huge markets in Europe…and the US is the biggest market on the planet. Where are those good little Euro’s going to sell their goodies too? Japan? Korea? Themselves? Where are they going to buy all the stuff they currently buy from countries like China and India…and the US?
[/quote]
There probably won’t be are much buying and selling in the first place, much less to same people. A worldwide disaster would screw up and change the world economy in all sorts of ways, so I can’t really predict who would sell what to whom.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
Please try and at least make a token effort to ground things in this universes version of reality, ehe?
[/QUOTE]
I am. you are the one who apparently wants to pretend that a worldwide disaster will just be shrugged off.

26

[QUOTE=Askance]
You seem to assume that economic growth and carbon emissions are irrevocably tied together. They are not.

Mind you, the longer we continue to drive our economic growth with power produced by carbon emissions, the more likely your mandated restrictions scenario is. The sooner we can switch to solar the less likely it is that will happen.
[/QUOTE]

You act as though all we have to do is throw the switch, and we’re just too lazy or something to do it. Economic growth is tied to carbon emissions until we figure out how to untie it-- which we haven’t done yet. If it weren’t, we’d have already switched.

27

[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
If things get bad enough, yes. If we have the worldwide disaster scenario I was speaking of, any country that continues making the situation worse is going to be an international pariah.
[/QUOTE]

Well, you are of course welcome to your opinion no matter how far divorced from the real world the rest of us mortals are forced to slog through.

[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
Each other, obviously. And their economies will ALREADY be in ruins in such a disaster scenario; they would have a lot of incentive to stop doing what brought them to that state. And we aren’t talking about them trying to “save the planet”, which isn’t in danger anyway; we are talking about them trying to save themselves.
[/QUOTE]

Uhuh. Even assuming they were willing to shoot themselves in their collective economic heads to save the planet they don’t have a big enough market between them to make up the difference in what they would lose by deciding not to trade with the US alone…let alone China.

In essence they will have destroyed their economies with gods know what ramifications…but the planet at least will be safe I guess. Or not as their sacrifice won’t really make a difference anyway and so not only would they have economic ruin but they would STILL have to face the ramifications of GW anyway. Sounds like a winning combo to me…I’m sure they will do just as you say.

[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
There probably won’t be are much buying and selling in the first place, much less to same people. A worldwide disaster would screw up and change the world economy in all sorts of ways, so I can’t really predict who would sell what to whom.
[/QUOTE]

Well then it’s moot and the survivors can go back to exchanging bear skins in caves. I’m sure you will be ecstatic.

[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
I am. you are the one who apparently wants to pretend that a worldwide disaster will just be shrugged off.
[/QUOTE]

No, I’m the one attempting to interject a bit of reality into your fantasy scenerio where the good countries in Europe/Japan (maybe)/whoever else gets on board with economic suicide and turn their backs on the evil US (oh yeah, and China…you forgot about them in your anti-US screed) and start trading amongst themselves while saving the planet, etc etc.

I’m pretty much on board with GW as a reality. I’m less so that humans are the sole cause or can (short of a total and unlikely shift in our civilization) ‘fix’ things in the time frames folks are talking about. I think realistically the US is ALREADY (starting) to do what needs to be done in a manner that is at least semi-sane, and that we will just have to do the best we can…and live with the consequences. Just as we enjoy the BENEFITS of what our technology has brought them we need to prepare to pay any costs we incur.

-XT

28

[QUOTE=xtisme]
I think realistically the US is ALREADY (starting) to do what needs to be done in a manner that is at least semi-sane, and that we will just have to do the best we can…and live with the consequences.
[/QUOTE]

I think we are utterly lacking in leadership, and our meager efforts are quite pathetic. We could do MUCH BETTER tomorrow if we were truly motivated.

For instance, in Japan, government buildings have all thermostats set at 78 degrees in the summer to reduce A/C use.

29

[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy]
I think we are utterly lacking in leadership, and our meager efforts are quite pathetic. We could do MUCH BETTER tomorrow if we were truly motivated.
[/QUOTE]

And how would you go about motivating people to do ‘much better’ exactly? I’m not disputing that our current leadership sucks…but IMHO, on THIS issue it doesn’t matter who the leader is. You figure if Al Gore was president things would be substantially different? Though I would love to see Al Gore AS president, I don’t think it would make a substantial difference.

When American’s are ready to change they will change (in fact, I think we are ALREADY changing…our carbon foot print has actually gone down in the last year for the first time…well, afaik ever). And that change will come about through market forces instead of government fiat. YMMV, but I think this is a better way than attempting to dictate what some government flunky THINKS we should do.

[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy]
For instance, in Japan, government buildings have all thermostats set at 78 degrees in the summer to reduce A/C use.
[/QUOTE]

Well, that’s nice…but Japan isn’t America. Japanese people is more geared to the people getting told what to do by their government than the US. Japanese culture is relatively uniform…as opposed to the multi-cultural hodge-podge that you get here in the US.

-XT

30

[QUOTE=John Mace]
You act as though all we have to do is throw the switch, and we’re just too lazy or something to do it.
[/QUOTE]
We’re too lazy to have even figured out how to build the switch despite the fact that it is clearly going to have to be built sooner or later, and that it would be better to build it sooner when we have some elbow room to design it as we wish and adjust to the changes required, than wait til the last minute (or after) and have the necessary changes forced upon us at an even less comfortable pace.

31

[QUOTE=glee]
there’s no sign of the Chinese stopping their rapid expansion either.
[/QUOTE]
They are doing more than the US are. Granted, much of their effort ends up with their carbon emissions being effectively exported to south east Asia, but they are at least trying. The US is doing precisely bugger-all, and are actively undermining the post-Kyoto efforts as we speak.

32

If only we could all just see the future, and have unlimited resources and iron fisted totalitarian governments to beat us into submission and make us do the ‘right’ thing! If only there was a Stalin or a Mao out there to whip us into shape and MAKE not so ‘lazy’. If only all that nasty reality stuff would simply stop rearing it’s ugly head and let us get to the top of the ivory tower.

Kind of brings a tear to your eye, ehe? Imagine all the people…Sharing all the world…

Woohoo!

-XT

33

[QUOTE=xtisme]
And how would you go about motivating people to do ‘much better’ exactly? I’m not disputing that our current leadership sucks…but IMHO, on THIS issue it doesn’t matter who the leader is. You figure if Al Gore was president things would be substantially different? Though I would love to see Al Gore AS president, I don’t think it would make a substantial difference.

When American’s are ready to change they will change (in fact, I think we are ALREADY changing…our carbon foot print has actually gone down in the last year for the first time…well, afaik ever). And that change will come about through market forces instead of government fiat. YMMV, but I think this is a better way than attempting to dictate what some government flunky THINKS we should do.

Well, that’s nice…but Japan isn’t America. Japanese people is more geared to the people getting told what to do by their government than the US. Japanese culture is relatively uniform…as opposed to the multi-cultural hodge-podge that you get here in the US.

-XT
[/QUOTE]

Rest of the world: [progressive action resulting in moral AND economic good]

USA: “Well, that’s nice…but…”

34

[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy]
Rest of the world: [progressive action resulting in moral AND economic good]
[/QUOTE]

:stuck_out_tongue: Are you defining the ‘Rest of the world’ = (some of) Western Europe then? Otherwise this is frankly a ridiculous statement that has no bearing on reality. Unless you figure China and India (and a list to long to go into here) = progressive action resulting in moral AND economic good?

snort! I need to clean the single malt off my monitor. I’ll check back for your answer in a bit…

-XT

35

[QUOTE=xtisme]
Well, you are of course welcome to your opinion no matter how far divorced from the real world the rest of us mortals are forced to slog through.
[/quote]
So you honestly think that your psychotic version of America/China/whatever, that continues to pump out yet more greenhouse gases even while major portions of it and the rest of the world are underwater, while famine and economic collapse sweep the world, that this country you describe that is utterly determined to make the world still worse WON’T be an international pariah ? You are the one ignoring the real world. An embargo is the MILD extreme of what might happen.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
Uhuh. Even assuming they were willing to shoot themselves in their collective economic heads to save the planet they don’t have a big enough market between them to make up the difference in what they would lose by deciding not to trade with the US alone…let alone China.
[/quote]
You have the typical American attitude that the only thing that matters is short term profit, and the typical American refusal to believe that anyone else in the world disagrees with you. If we do suffer a worldwide catastrophe, trade is going to a a distant second in importance to trying to stop the disaster from getting worse, in the eyes of most of humanity. EVERYTHING will be of secondary importance. If that means that most of the world has to live without us ( or China, or etc ) as a market, then that’s what they’ll do; they’ll be thinking of us ( or China, or etc ) as the enemy, not a trade partner.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
In essence they will have destroyed their economies with gods know what ramifications…but the planet at least will be safe I guess. Or not as their sacrifice won’t really make a difference anyway and so not only would they have economic ruin but they would STILL have to face the ramifications of GW anyway.
[/quote]
If our country is as suicidally insane as you describe, there’s no long term advantage in doing anything besides trying to stop us. The rest of the world at that point will be willing to put up with the economic problems caused by an embargo for the same reason they would be willing to do so against any other enemy nation.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
I think realistically the US is ALREADY (starting) to do what needs to be done in a manner that is at least semi-sane, and that we will just have to do the best we can…and live with the consequences.
[/quote]
Garbage. We are doing little, and what we ARE doing is against the opposition of those in power. We COULD do far more, but the wealthy and powerful in this country are fully determined to drag us and the rest of the world down into collapse before they give up one penny of profit. No matter if it ruins them in the end with the rest of us. They are too stupid, too arrogant, or too fanatic to care.

[QUOTE=xtisme]
If only we could all just see the future, and have unlimited resources and iron fisted totalitarian governments to beat us into submission and make us do the ‘right’ thing! If only there was a Stalin or a Mao out there to whip us into shape and MAKE not so ‘lazy’. If only all that nasty reality stuff would simply stop rearing it’s ugly head and let us get to the top of the ivory tower.
[/QUOTE]
:rolleyes: It’s the people with power and their toadies who are refusing to do anything about the problem that are ignoring reality. And it’s the general population that wants to do something about global warming even if it makes sacrifices, and the leadership that’s doing everything it can to block solutions.

36

[QUOTE=xtisme]
:stuck_out_tongue: Are you defining the ‘Rest of the world’ = (some of) Western Europe then? Otherwise this is frankly a ridiculous statement that has no bearing on reality. Unless you figure China and India (and a list to long to go into here) = progressive action resulting in moral AND economic good?

snort! I need to clean the single malt off my monitor. I’ll check back for your answer in a bit…

-XT
[/QUOTE]

Ahh, yes, the old China and India canard.

I think we should be judged against countries with similar standards of development. (So, yes, Western Europe and some others.) Why would it be otherwise?

We are like a world-class sprinter who’s about 40 lbs. overweight due to sheer laziness. You’re saying we could win a gold medal at the special olympics. So what?

37

[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy]
I think we should be judged against countries with similar standards of development. (So, yes, Western Europe and some others.) Why would it be otherwise?
[/QUOTE]

Because China is putting out more CO2 than the US and India is not far behind? Not ‘relative’ CO2 emissions…actual emissions. And at a time when the US CO2 emissions are dropping, if only slightly?

I don’t know about you…seems important to me.

[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy]
We are like a world-class sprinter who’s about 40 lbs. overweight due to sheer laziness. You’re saying we could win a gold medal at the special olympics. So what?
[/QUOTE]

No…I’m not saying that at all. YOU were talking about laziness. Trying to fit me into that position is building a strawman and trying to get me to take it.

-XT

38

[QUOTE=Key Lime Guy]
Ahh, yes, the old China and India canard.
[/QUOTE]

You might want to look over this Wiki article which lists nations GDP. Note that while the EU is first on 2 of the 3 lists, this is the ENTIRE EU…not individual nations like France, UK, Germany, etc. And China ranks 3rd or second on those same lists. With India coming in 4th or 5th (between India and Japan for that level of ranking). Individual European nations come in a bit lower on the totem pole.

You SEEM to be under the impression that China and India are still shuffling along at the back of the bus with your talk of the ‘old China and India canard’. This ain’t so. China is an economic powerhouse that rivals both the US AND the EU…and India is coming up fast. And that economic rise entails a HUGE expenditure of hydrocarbons for energy to drive their industries. If we are going to talk about reducing CO2 then you can’t hand wave away either nation…nor is it realistic to ask those nations to stop their progress to save the world. It…ain’t…happening.

This isn’t to say that the US shouldn’t reduce our own CO2 footprint…or find alternatives to hydrocarbon based fuels, at least for personal transport. I think we ARE doing that however, even if it isn’t fast enough for some folks. At this point however, unless there is a radical (and probably extremely bad) change in our technological civilization we are just going to have to deal with the downside of said technology…GW. If the US stopped producing CO2 tomorrow (which would entail a complete destruction of our economy and probably of our nation) it STILL wouldn’t stop GW…unless every other nation did likewise. And realistically that just isn’t going to happen. Over time I can see change happening as new, cleaner technologies are developed, tested, proven, deployed and then replace older technologies as they become obsolete…and are propagated to countries like China to replace their NEW dirty plants. But this isn’t going to happen tomorrow, or next year, or next decade (though I would bet that 2 decades from now it’s substantially different). This has zero to do with the US (or an other nation) being ‘lazy’…it has to do with reality and the fact that you just can’t shift hundreds of millions (or billions) of people on a dime, nor make radical changes that would be needed to do anything measurable about something as vast as GW.

-XT