# Are we in for an "Obama Bonanza"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 26, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679 "2008-05-26T20:14:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/1 "2008-05-26T20:14:35Z")
In the [“Is McCain forked yet?”](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=469385&page=1&pp=50) thread someone made a claim that the expected Congressional blow-out for the Dems will induce people to split tickets and vote against the Democratic Presidential nominee. I tried to [research it](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9838405&postcount=28) and found [no evidence](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9838488&postcount=33) of significant ticket splitting during Presidential election years. > [@](#): > > I’ve not heard of it playing out as ticket-splitting but rather during the next mid-terms. Generally the party which has just taken over the White House loses a dozen or so seats in the next mid-terms. Some cycles have seen this much larger - see the blow-back against Bill Clinton. You can see the pattern here. On average the President’s party has lost 22 seats in the House during midterms since Truman, and about 3 seats in the Senate. Eisenhower lost 48 House seats and 13 Senate seats his second term which put him up there with Bill Clinton who lost 52 House seats and 8 in the Senate during his first mid-term. > > I have generally heard that interpreted as evidence that the public actually does want gridlock. > [@](#): > > Dem’s lost 9 House seats with Clinton’s win in '92 and there was no change in the Senate. '96 the Pubbies gained 2 Senate seas and I can’t find what happened in the House. In 200 the Dems picked up 2 House seats and 4 Senate seats with Bush’s victory but the Pubs picked up 5 each with Bush’s win in 2004. So no solid consistent pattern but then I don’t know of any years where the word ahead was a one party Congressional blow-out was in the offing. The closest may be in 1980 when the GOP picked up a total of 33 seats in Congress and the country elected Ronald Reagan. A second double digit Congressional pick up hasn’t been done since then. OTOH I have to wonder if we are in for a Reagan sort of year. Will this be a year of massive Dem turn-out across the board, even in states that Obama loses, and many of the GOP sitting it out as they did after Watergate and as Dems did after Carter, with the result of a second double digit Congressional pick-up of perhaps several dozens similar to the Reagan Revolution? Will Obama’s 50 state strategy coupled with huge disaffection among the GOP result in what will be called by historians an “Obama Bonanza” for the Democrats? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/2 "2008-05-26T20:17:09Z")
If it happens, let’s submit your name for coining the phrase. I think your rationale is sound and the fields are ripe for that to possibly happen. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/3 "2008-05-26T20:32:33Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] I tried to [research it](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9838405&postcount=28) and found [no evidence](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9838488&postcount=33) [/quote] Dude, citing \*your own posts \*, as “_research_”, is not normally an effective tactic here. ---
**Author:** ![Tyrrell\_McAllister](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tyrrell_mcallister/32/16772_2.png) [@Tyrrell\_McAllister](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tyrrell_McAllister)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/4 "2008-05-26T20:38:27Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Dude, citing \*your own posts \*, as “_research_”, is not normally an effective tactic here. [/QUOTE] If the cited post is itself a statement of the research performed (with references), then why not? ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/5 "2008-05-26T20:41:04Z")
Wikipedia has pretty [thorough](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:U.S._House_elections) results of the House, Senate and Presidential elections, FWIW. in 1996, Dems gained 8 House seats. I think regardless of whether Obama wins or not, Republicans are heading for a bruising in House and Senate elections. This has been in the cards for a good 2 years now. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/6 "2008-05-26T20:56:37Z")
A more useful one is [here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses). The same party has controlled both houses and the Presidency for only 4 of the last 16 Congressional terms, 7 of the last 27 … oh, well, you can do your own counting. That didn’t just happen; people \*voted \* for it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/7 "2008-05-26T21:36:35Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] A more useful one is [here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses). The same party has controlled both houses and the Presidency for only 4 of the last 16 Congressional terms, 7 of the last 27 … oh, well, you can do your own counting. That didn’t just happen; people \*voted \* for it. [/QUOTE] Hmmm. Interesting chart. (Hadn’t found it so my data collection was a bit more cumbersome.) Of note in it however is that the House has been Democratic all but 2 of 31 Sessions (GOP or Dem President) until Bill Clinton came into office and since then 6 sessions were GOP majority until this last election cycle. The Senate has flipped some but no real pattern emerging of it being with or against the Presidential party overall. Reagan’s revolution made huge progress in giving him a less unfriendly Congress but he was still working with the other party having a majority in the House and the Senate too once. Yes, three flips of the coin will get all three the same way only about 1/3 of the time. 1 out of four is hardly outside statistical chance. Not quite the proof of voters splitting votes to assure parity/gridlock/whathaveyou that you put it forth as. So yes, if Obama wins and there are also the major wins expected in Congress for the Dems, he’ll be in uncommon company having the solid majority of both. Of course that company includes Carter and GWBush so it does not necessarily mean an effective Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/8 "2008-05-26T21:43:00Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Yes, three flips of the coin will get all three the same way only about 1/3 of the time. [/quote] Nitpick: 1/8 of the time. > [@](#): > > 1 out of four is hardly outside statistical chance. This part’s still true, though. ---
**Author:** ![Indistinguishable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90ced4/32.png) [@Indistinguishable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indistinguishable)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/9 "2008-05-26T21:51:49Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Nitpick: 1/8 of the time. [/QUOTE] Further nitpick: 1/4 of the time. He’s allowed for both HHH and TTT. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/10 "2008-05-26T22:00:41Z")
[QUOTE=Indistinguishable] Further nitpick: 1/4 of the time. He’s allowed for both HHH and TTT. [/QUOTE] You’re right. I missed that - good catch. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/11 "2008-05-26T22:13:26Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] the House has been Democratic all but 2 of 31 Sessions (GOP or Dem President) until Bill Clinton came into office and since then 6 sessions were GOP majority until this last election cycle. [/quote] Demonstrating ticket-splitting in action, hmm? > [@](#): > > The Senate has flipped some but no real pattern emerging of it being with or against the Presidential party overall. It _can’t_ change quickly with 6-year terms, staggered at that. > [@](#): > > Reagan’s revolution made huge progress in giving him a less unfriendly Congress but he was still working with the other party having a majority in the House and the Senate too once. More evidence, hmm? > [@](#): > > Yes, three flips of the coin Just can’t make yourself say it, can you? ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2008, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/12 "2008-05-26T23:52:46Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Demonstrating ticket-splitting in action, hmm? [/QUOTE] No. Split ticket voting just means you don’t vote straight ticket. It doesn’t mean pick the person you want to be president, and then fill in the bubbles on the rest of the sheet on the other side. From your quote taken from wiki in the other thread: > [@](#): > > Split-ticket voting can be used as a form of tactical voting in countries (such as the United States) dominated by two parties where a voter is not a wholehearted supporter of either party…This is often beneficial to the democratic system because it encourages elected officials to be good to their word. If elected officials are being good to their word, and you’ve voting on them based on what their word is, then you’re _voting for who you think the best candidate is_. Middle school civics stuff, yet you still don’t understand it. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/13 "2008-05-27T01:27:09Z")
Thanks for the remedial math help guys. I don’t know what I did. Don’t tell my kids, 'kay? But amazingly it is almost exactly as would be expected by chance. Despite the pattern of midterm pick-ups for the party that does not occupy the White House. (Why I bother I don’t know.) No, **Elvis** , that pattern is inconsistent with the hypothesis of ticket splitting. The Dems maintained the House through both Dem and GOP administrations … until Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/14 "2008-05-27T04:59:04Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Dude, citing \*your own posts \*, as “_research_”, is not normally an effective tactic here. [/QUOTE] His post is his cite. :d&r: I couldn’t resist. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/15 "2008-05-27T13:02:02Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] That didn’t just happen; people \*voted \* for it. [/QUOTE] Some people, in some particular cases, prefer a POTUS of one party and a Congresscritter of the other; but nobody (well, nobody but total asstards) votes **for** divided government as an end-in-itself. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/16 "2008-05-27T15:55:38Z")
Hi. I’m a total asstard. Generally, I believe in the dialectic, where the antithesis of the Democrats and the thesis of the Republicans unify into a synthesis which, while a bit inefficient, keeps this ship of state afloat. Problem is, last eight years, it’s been thesis, ignore the antithesis, no synthesis results. Not healthy, you ask me. Personally, as a rule of thumb, I like a Republican president, a Democratic House, a Republican Senate and a Democratic Supreme Court. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/17 "2008-05-27T18:02:06Z")
Then you are my mortal enemy, for I prefer a Democratic president, a Republican House, a Democratic Senate and a Republican Supreme Court. My second will arrange things with your second. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/18 "2008-05-27T18:07:34Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] Hi. I’m a total asstard. Generally, I believe in the dialectic, where the antithesis of the Democrats and the thesis of the Republicans unify into a synthesis which, while a bit inefficient, keeps this ship of state afloat. [/QUOTE] But consider that, in a [parliamentary system,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_system) divided government never exists (the legislature chooses the executive), and yet many modern democracies do very well with such a system. In fact, I don’t see how our separation-of-powers system has any better a track record. Maybe this is just one of those things about which the Framers were wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/19 "2008-05-27T18:08:17Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] Then you are my mortal enemy, for I prefer a Democratic president, a Republican House, a Democratic Senate and a Republican Supreme Court. My second will arrange things with your second. [/QUOTE] Good luck getting a GOP SCOTUS with a Dem Pres. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679/20 "2008-05-27T18:10:43Z")
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger] Good luck getting a GOP SCOTUS with a Dem Pres. 🆒 [/QUOTE] That’s exactly what we had under Clinton. It’s all about the time lag. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-we-in-for-an-obama-bonanza/450679.md?page=2)