Are we (in the US) going to end up with empty shelves and much higher prices in May? What should we do to prepare

[Ellecram]

I have no way of predicting what the shopping experience will look like in a couple months and beyond. Nor can I predict what I might need. Nor am I in a position to buy some things in advance of the coming chaos.

At some point I will need a new computer (or most likely a laptop for now) and a new car. But they could squeak by while longer.

I might be able to shop for a laptop in a few weeks but not right now. Whatever. I have a phone and a couple tablets and access to my work computer for now.

I’ve resigned myself to either paying more for whatever I need, looking for second hand sales online, not buying and doing without or sharing, or whatever else I can conjure up depending on the need.

Not a pleasant batch of thoughts but this is my life now.

I did buy some over the counter meds last week because I thought I had misplaced mine. Which I did not so now I have double immodium, famotidine and benadryl supplies.

[Mk_VII]

I’ve seen chicken feet for sale here. But I don’t know who’s buying them.

[xtenkfarpl]

@DocCathode

I thought there was a demand for chicken feet in many European countries.

How are they usually cooked? There’s not a lot of meat on them, I’d have thought?
Maybe as a broth base?

[purplehorseshoe]

@Mk_VII

I’ve seen chicken feet for sale here. But I don’t know who’s buying them.

I do, occasionally. (They’re marked as “chicken paws.”)

Make a fabulous batch of chicken broth/stock.

@xtenkfarpl got it in one.

[jimmieanna]

Thank you for sharing this article, I found it most informative. So much of it pops out at me, several paragraphs scare me, and this is one that doesn’t surprise me, but tells me what to expect, he doesn’t care how bad it gets for us, the little guys.

As a politician, Trump vowed to “make America great again” with the same predatory methods he used in business. He does not appear to believe in mutually beneficial transactions. The only way he feels confident that he prevailed is if the other party suffers. His plan for enriching America was predicated on dominating and wronging others. Plans like that seldom work even at the start, and never work for long.

[DrDeth]

@penultima_thule

US exports of soya and corn to China are going to feed pigs & poultry.

Part of them, yes. But not all.

[Railer13]

@DrDeth

Family farms dont grow soy, corn (except sweet corn) or cotton- those are mass factory farms. Most family farms now sell locally etc.

Have a cite for these assertions?

Because the USDA states that

In total, family farms accounted for about 97 percent of total farms
and 90 percent of total production in 2022.

While a ‘family farm’ these days might indeed be a massive operation, the idea that factory farms are commonplace is a mistaken notion that is often repeated on this board.

[Dewey_Finn]

Is there a difference between a family farm and a factory farm?

[kenobi_65]

IME, one could make several different distinctions:

• A farming operation which is owned and operated by a singular family, versus one that’s owned by a corporation
• A small*, family-run farm, versus a large farm

*- Small being relative, and probably defined by whatever the person making the argument wants to argue is “too large.”

Twenty years ago, I had ADM (one of the major ag processors) as a client, and I regularly conducted focus group interviews for them among grain farmers across the Midwest: mostly farmers who grew corn/soybeans, but some wheat farmers, too. The corn that they grew was largely used in industrial and food manufacturing uses (corn starch, corn meal, HFCS, ethanol, etc.); it wasn’t sweet corn.

All of the ones with which I spoke were family operations, but one thing to note is that the land which they farmed every year was a mixture of land that they, themselves owned, and land which they leased for the year. In most cases, they were leasing farmland which was privately-owned, usually by a family which used to actually farm that land, but after the family patriarch (and farmer) had passed away, there was no one left in the family who was interested in farming (and often no one left who actually lived in the area), and so, they leased the land out to active farmers.

At that time, most of the farmers to whom indicated that, in order to actually turn a profit growing corn and soybeans**, given the cost of equipment (and other inputs, like seed and fertilizer), a farmer had to be actively farming 1200-1300 acres, at a minimum, across the various tracts of land that they had under their use. That minimum number may well be higher now.

I would still consider those to be “family farms,” despite the relatively large amount of acreage that they farmed; YMMV. On the other hand, it may be that my “data” is out of date, and corn/soybean farming is now largely the province of actual corporations.

**- For those who are unaware, it’s typical for corn farmers to rotate crops between corn and soybeans; corn requires nitrogen it grows, while soybeans are “nitrogen-fixing,” pulling nitrogen from the atmosphere, and “fixing” it back into the soil through its roots. This crop rotation reduces the need for nitrogen fertilizer for growing corn.

[Wesley_Clark]

On the subject of food, tariffs on China and Mexico, combined with migrant labor being afraid to show up for work could lead to shortages of certain food products. However I think staple crops that people rely on to avoid starvation (wheat, corn) would be largely unaffected.

[bobsmom101]

Med supplies is a big worry. The other – to which I don’t see much attention given – is spare parts. I foresee infrastructure slowly degrading & nobody (i.e. the Maniac in Chief and his enablers) noticing until it’s too late.

[RivkahChaya]

@kenobi_65

A small*, family-run farm, versus a large farm

In Indiana, “family farm” has a legal definition, although I don’t know what it is. I just remember reading the child labor laws poster in the clock in room a few times, and family farms are allowed a few exemptions when it comes to having the kids in the family working. They mostly had to do with them being allowed to work before 8am, and to put in a limited number of long days in a year during planting and harvest. They could drive equipment without having a driver’s license, on their property only, as long as they had seatbelts and helmets, IIRC.

Anyway, those wouldn’t be enforceable if you couldn’t differentiate a family farm from a factory farm.

[kenobi_65]

@RivkahChaya

In Indiana, “family farm” has a legal definition, although I don’t know what it is.

A quick bit of googling didn’t give me an Indiana-specific definition, but the USDA’s specific definition of a family farm is:

“any farm organized as a sole proprietorship, partnership, or family corporation. Family farms exclude farms organized as nonfamily corporations or cooperatives, as well as farms with hired managers”.

The USDA also notes this breakdown of family farms, under their definition, from their Census of Agriculture:

• Very large family farms (101,265) gross over $500,000
• Large family farms (86,551) gross between $250,000 and $500,000
• Small family farms (1,925,799) gross under $250,000

Family Farms

[Wesley_Clark]

@bobsmom101

Med supplies is a big worry. The other – to which I don’t see much attention given – is spare parts. I foresee infrastructure slowly degrading & nobody (i.e. the Maniac in Chief and his enablers) noticing until it’s too late.

Yeah, I worry about that too. What happens when our power plants, electric grid, industrial machinery, transportation vehicles, etc start breaking down and we can’t get spare parts?

China knows they hold the cards. The US needs them far more than they need us. They are just waiting for the US to collapse due to Trumps sanctions and for Trump to come begging.

[Railer13]

@kenobi_65

“any farm organized as a sole proprietorship, partnership, or family corporation. Family farms exclude farms organized as nonfamily corporations or cooperatives, as well as farms with hired managers”.

This is an excellent definition/distinction.

[DrDeth]

@Dewey_Finn

Is there a difference between a family farm and a factory farm?

Just nomenclature. I personally consider a family farm to be a small family operation, run and operated by a family, but apparently the USDA defines them differently.

[China_Guy]

@penultima_thule

Lead time for containerised freight from Chinese ports to US west coast is around 15 days. East coast maybe closer to 30 days. Add about 7 days for customs clearance (assuming the duty is paid) and the goods would be in US importer’s warehouse. Then add the distributors lead time.

This is really optimistic. I used to work for one of the largest contract manufacturers on the planet. You have to look at the entire supply chain. Assumes: an order is placed with available product sitting in a port warehouse ready to be shipped, there are no seasonal delays clearing China customs (ex. there is an ungodly rush to make holiday shipment deadlines), willing to pay for the fastest VLCC cargo ships (faster the transit, the more fuel is burned), there are zero delays to unload at the destination ports and truck out, destination regional warehouse like Walmart has efficient intake & breakdown for individual stores, and it ships efficiently to the actual store.

And the above all assumes that there is just cargo sitting at the Chinese port waiting for an order. What if a new order means need to increase factory production. That requires ensuring all the components are JIT available (miss one screw and the product don’t ship), labor is available, trucking ready to go the port warehouse. This is done quickly but not overnight.

Every step in the chain has been optimized as much as possible for just-in-time delivery. One JIT shortage has a cascading effect stretching out the entire delivery time. In electronics, rule of thumb was 45 - 60 days to the US warehouse with planned production. Sure, you can air ship, but there are no margins to support that.

[RickJay]

@Wesley_Clark

On the subject of food, tariffs on China and Mexico, combined with migrant labor being afraid to show up for work could lead to shortages of certain food products. However I think staple crops that people rely on to avoid starvation (wheat, corn) would be largely unaffected.

There will always be more than enough food in general to keep people alive. They will not accept losing specific foods they like though.

[penultima_thule]

@China_Guy

This is really optimistic.

As you point out, that lead time is simply from B/L (bill of lading).
The time taken from placement of order to B/L could be months.

What I was trying to point out is that “6 weeks” might apply for goods already in transit, which had been purchased before the tariffs came into effect.

[China_Guy]

@penultima_thule

What I was trying to point out is that “6 weeks” might apply for goods already in transit, which had been purchased before the tariffs came into effect.

fair clarification. my clarified point being your clarification is the by far, optimistic best case scenario.