# Are you willing to go broke to maintain the present lockdown? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 23, 2020, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471 "2020-04-23T22:27:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/41 "2020-04-24T03:54:29Z")
> [@Yllaria](#): > > Lose my paycheck to what? The paycheck fairy? Will she magically see that it’s distributed exactly where it’s most needed? > > Tell you what, I’ll put my paycheck under my pillow for her. You are responding to what can be called a Putinesque scenario. Nothing being said is based in reality. It is blather some comrades use to push a scenario designed to confuse the uniformed. Ignore this brand of thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Yllaria](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yllaria/32/3452_2.png) [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/42 "2020-04-24T04:01:36Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > . . . Yllaria: You give it to the state who uses it to pay out unemployment benefits and to pay for healthcare for those that have lost theirs. To what program? Unemployment isn’t set up to handle it. Medicare isn’t set up to handle it. The devil is in the details and this fictional program has no details at all. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/43 "2020-04-24T05:55:27Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > The evidence is crystal clear. Locking down hard and early and maintaining effective social distancing was the best way to combat Covid-19: its the key to both saving lives and to get the economy going as quickly as possible. We are in the process of reopening the country, and hopefully in three weeks time we will be down to Level 2. Have you thought it all the way through? By that I mean, are you willing to remain locked down as long as the virus still exists in other places? ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/44 "2020-04-24T06:01:41Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > There is an assumption that the economy will still be as bad off if we lift the restrictions. I don’t think that has played that way in Sweden has it? Sweden is an ongoing experiment and has its own thread, so I don’t want to declare Sweden a better or worse path, but for this discussion is the unemployment rate in Sweden spiraling out of control? I had heard they did stay away from public gatherings in droves, so seem better at self isolating than the US might be. You’re making an assumption in the other direction without any evidence, just questions that you haven’t answered. Your assumption is that the economy will be better off if the restrictions are lifted. You need more evidence to show that. If the economy is just as bad off with restrictions lifted, the question in the OP is moot because lifting the lockdown won’t do enough to change the scenario. [Sweden Refused To Shut Down Its Economy Over Coronavirus — Is It Working?](https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/10/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity-trump/) on April 10, 2020 > [@](#): > > Advocates of the herd immunity strategy have also argued that avoiding lockdowns can prevent the economic disaster that has struck countries like the United States. Sweden, however, is still expected to lose 3.4 percent of its GDP in 2020, which is less than Spain and Italy, but more than the U.S. This is in the _Daily Caller_ so it might be weighted on that basis, but it says that Sweden’s GDP is expected to shrink more than the US GDP. [Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000) on April 15, 2020 > [@](#): > > Although the longer-term impact is obviously unknown, Sweden’s strategy is not expected to preserve the country’s economy this year any more than those of countries imposing stricter lockdowns: Magdalena Andersson, the finance minister, said on Wednesday GDP could shrink by 10% this year and unemployment rise to 13.5%. This is from _The Guardian_. The numbers are from Sweden’s finance minister showing some worse projections that GDP of Sweden could shrink by 10% and unemployment could rise to 13.5%. [Swedish labour board says unemployment at 8% as virus hits economy](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-unemploymen/swedish-labour-board-says-unemployment-at-8-as-virus-hits-economy-idUSKBN2221CO) on April 20, 2020 from Reuters > [@](#): > > Sweden’s Public Employment Service (SPES) said on Monday unemployment rose to 8% in the past week after a wave of redundancies due to the effects of the novel coronavirus on the economy. To compare, here are some projections about the US economy and unemployment. [The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html) > [@](#): > > When all is said and done, the unemployment rate will be 10.6%, and there will be 17.9 million Americans on the unemployment line, or about 12 million more than in February, according to a projection from Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. The current jobless rate is 3.5%, the lowest in more than 50 years. This is a prediction made on March 30, 2020. Sweden is forecasting its unemployment rate at 13.5% by its finance minister. An economist, Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Aberdeen Standard Investment, in the US is predicting the unemployment rate to be at 10.6%. At the same time, deaths per million are 200 in Sweden vs the US at 152 according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) on April 23, 2020. Many of those deaths are from elderly care homes that the government was unable to protect despite their focus on them. Sweden has the higher death rate so far, the higher predicted unemployment rate and the higher predicted contraction of GDP. Besides Sweden, what is your evidence that lifting the lockdown will improve the economy? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/45 "2020-04-24T06:23:27Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Besides Sweden, what is your evidence that lifting the lockdown will improve the economy? You need evidence of that? Really? I can think of a dozen errands I’d run today if I could, all of which involve spending money and all of which can be done with little more interaction than I get at home and less than I get at the grocery store. Like visiting my tailor, my optical shop, and my laundry. Maybe buying something at a hardware store. I imagine I’m not far from average in that respect. Yes, I’m sure that many will stay away from crowds even when events start happening again. But I’m also sure that people won’t really fear one-on-one interactions, or close to it, that happen in a whole, whole lot of ‘economic’ transactions. It’s kinda how the whole thing works. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/46 "2020-04-24T06:43:34Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > You need evidence of that? Really? I can think of a dozen errands I’d run today if I could, all of which involve spending money and all of which can be done with little more interaction than I get at home and less than I get at the grocery store. Like visiting my tailor, my optical shop, and my laundry. Maybe buying something at a hardware store. > > I imagine I’m not far from average in that respect. Yes, I’m sure that many will stay away from crowds even when events start happening again. But I’m also sure that people won’t really fear one-on-one interactions, or close to it, that happen in a whole, whole lot of ‘economic’ transactions. It’s kinda how the whole thing works. I WILL fear one-on-one interactions for a long time to come, because I don’t trust other people to have my best interests at heart. There are a lot of people who unfortunately will have to go back to work as soon as possible for financial reasons; those are the folks who cannot afford to miss work even if they’re sick. I don’t need to be around them in crowds or individually, and there are a lot of people like me who aren’t going to go to the optician or the hardware store or the dentist for anything short of a dire emergency for probably quite a while to come. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/47 "2020-04-24T06:54:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > How many people should starve to death (or freeze, or any of the other ways lack of resources can kill) so you can avoid being hospitalized? > > Yes, the lockdowns save lives. They also kill. If you’re going to recommend a greater degree of lockdown than the professionals are recommending, you’d better be confident that your numbers are more accurate than theirs. That depends on which professionals you are referring to. Professional scientists? Professional politicians? Professional corporate leaders? ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/48 "2020-04-24T07:02:20Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > You need evidence of that? Really? I can think of a dozen errands I’d run today if I could, all of which involve spending money and all of which can be done with little more interaction than I get at home and less than I get at the grocery store. Like visiting my tailor, my optical shop, and my laundry. Maybe buying something at a hardware store. > > I imagine I’m not far from average in that respect. Yes, I’m sure that many will stay away from crowds even when events start happening again. But I’m also sure that people won’t really fear one-on-one interactions, or close to it, that happen in a whole, whole lot of ‘economic’ transactions. It’s kinda how the whole thing works. > [@slash2k](#): > > I WILL fear one-on-one interactions for a long time to come, because I don’t trust other people to have my best interests at heart. There are a lot of people who unfortunately will have to go back to work as soon as possible for financial reasons; those are the folks who cannot afford to miss work even if they’re sick. I don’t need to be around them in crowds or individually, and there are a lot of people like me who aren’t going to go to the optician or the hardware store or the dentist for anything short of a dire emergency for probably quite a while to come. For every one of you, **SayTwo** , how many are going to be like **slash2k**? If, for example, a restaurant opens to a very dwindled crowd, they still have to pay employees for showing up. Right now, there’s government assistance for them to stay at home. If that leaves, then it will be all on the owners to take on that cost. Will it be worth it to them? In some sense, that’s what’s happening with Sweden. They’re still open, but the demand is a lot less, so the projections are a lot less too. And the economy isn’t just determined by local demand. The other countries in Europe being shut down affects them. It looks like we might be seeing how it goes with some of the States opening up shortly. But I’m not sure the States that are opening up are indicative of the economies of the other ones opening up. In the same way as on the country level, it remains to be seen if they’ll be affected by everyone else being shut down. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/49 "2020-04-24T07:10:39Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > Have you thought it all the way through? By that I mean, are you willing to **remain locked down** as long as the virus still exists in other places? …we aren’t remaining locked down though. Despite the virus still existing in other places. You just quoted me saying that the plan is to hopefully get the country to Level 2 in three weeks. We are definitely moving to Level 3 next week. So I don’t understand your question. The process and the plan was made quite clear when we went into lockdown. We were going to hold at Level 4 for four weeks (two full incubation periods) and evaluate. When we drop to Level 3 we will hold for an additional incubation period (another two weeks) and evaluate again. The fact that you probably live in a place that doesn’t have a clear strategy in place doesn’t change the fact that I live in a place that does. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/50 "2020-04-24T07:13:32Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > …But there are other compensations people get just for working. Not everyone, but most do. Meanwhile, the unemployed get none of that. How is that fair?.. The way to fix that part is easy. Universal healthcare funded through general taxation. The system in place in every other developed nation. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/51 "2020-04-24T07:29:27Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > So I don’t understand your question. I mean your borders. I assume that’s part of what you call ‘lockdown’, and I also assume that fully opening them again isn’t a featured part of your ‘reopening’ plan. I actually do live in a place with a plan. But no one here (or much of anywhere else I know about, save maybe some neighbors in Europe) is talking about freely opening their doors once they get things under control in their own house. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/52 "2020-04-24T07:31:05Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > For every one of you, **SayTwo** , how many are going to be like **slash2k**? My guess would be somewhere between one-tenth and one-hundredth. Maybe less. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/53 "2020-04-24T07:40:51Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > My guess would be somewhere between one-tenth and one-hundredth. Maybe less. Any evidence for your guess? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/54 "2020-04-24T07:46:54Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Any evidence for your guess? Um. No. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/55 "2020-04-24T08:23:14Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > NYC has a death rate of 786 per million and Sweden has a rate of 192 per million. > > As of this day in the US there are about 50,000 casualties of which 14,000 are from nursing homes. that’s about a third and that doesn’t count all the elderly and medically challenged who are not in nursing homes. > > Had we focused on the people most effected we could have kept the country running and focused resources on protecting the people who need it. > > But we didn’t know the exact nature of the virus so we had to plan for the worst. > > Since we now know that most people recover from the virus the question is how to maximize the safety of those at risk with the minimum of financial damage. We can’t all stay home forever. You’re attempting to compare Sweden, a country of 10 million, to NYC? Manhattan itself has a weekday population of 4 million (all in a 20 sq.mi. area). Plus many of these people live in NJ and Connecticut. Sweden’s inactions are the epitome of a failure. At 200 deaths per million, it blows away its neighbors. Denmark is at 68 deaths per million; Norway is at 36 ; Finland is at 32. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/56 "2020-04-24T08:24:58Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > I mean your borders. I assume that’s part of what you call ‘lockdown’, and I also assume that fully opening them again isn’t a featured part of your ‘reopening’ plan. …still not understanding the question. If you want to discuss borders then yes that is outside of the scope of the lockdown. Being able to hop on a plane and fly out of the country doesn’t fit my definition of being in “lockdown”, especially since its been nearly 30 years since I last hopped on an international plane. Businesses that rely on overseas visitors know that the borders aren’t going to be open for a while. Things aren’t going to be getting back to normal for a very long time. You better just get used to it. > [@](#): > > I actually do live in a place with a plan. And what would that plan be? > [@](#): > > But no one here (or much of anywhere else I know about, save maybe some neighbors in Europe) is talking about freely opening their doors once they get things under control in their own house. We’ve got a step-by-step plan to reopen the economy. That plan doesn’t involve opening the borders. In answer to your original question: yes I have “thought it all the way through.” What is it, do you think I’m missing? ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 8:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/57 "2020-04-24T08:42:51Z")
It’s been shown that shorter lockdowns when things get bad actually work better than one long lockdown. You do start running into the effects of thelockdown itself being deadly if you go too long, and then, when you are forced to come out to save those people, you get large spikes because we’re not ready yet. The main problem we have right now are political leaders getting itchy to start letting up too soon because they’re overly concerned about the economy, but the economy should only matter inasmuch as we need to keep it running to keep people from suffering or dying. But the scientifically backed plan has always been shorter lockdowns, with likely repeats until we get this sorted. Everything else does worse. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/58 "2020-04-24T10:01:29Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > We’ve got a step-by-step plan to reopen the economy. That plan doesn’t involve opening the borders. In answer to your original question: yes I have “thought it all the way through.” What is it, do you think I’m missing? I think you’re missing that your plan isn’t the end-all-be-all you think it is unless your country is willing to isolate itself from the rest of the world. Maybe yours is, but I don’t think most of the others can really get away with that. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/59 "2020-04-24T10:37:16Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > \*\*I think you’re missing \*\*that your plan isn’t the end-all-be-all you think it is unless your country is willing to isolate itself from the rest of the world. …I’m not missing anything at all. Opening the borders: even in a limited fashion, wouldn’t be sensible at all in the short term. We \*\*have \*\*isolated ourselves from the rest of the world. Most of the rest of the world is a hotzone. The only practical way we can open up the local economy is to shut down travel from the rest of the world. Almost everyone here accepts this. The goal isn’t to simply contain the coronavirus, its to (medically) [eradicate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_diseases)it from our [shores](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52344299). So I still don’t understand the question. In answer to your original question: yes we have “thought it all the way through.” > [@](#): > > Maybe yours is, but I don’t think most of the others can really get away with that. Perhaps that’s why in countries like America and the UK they are struggling to get this under control, and why I think that trying to reopen the economy in that sort of environment is going to end up in disaster. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471/60 "2020-04-24T10:59:51Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > That depends on which professionals you are referring to. > Professional scientists? > Professional politicians? > Professional corporate leaders? I think he means medical professionals like Dr. Oz and Dr. Phil. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/are-you-willing-to-go-broke-to-maintain-the-present-lockdown/852471.md?page=4)