# Aren't the vast majority of us going to get infected by the Corona Virus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 3, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997 "2020-04-03T20:07:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/1 "2020-04-03T20:07:55Z")
And all these precautions we are being asked to take are meant to slow down the infection rate so the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed all at one time. Isn’t a matter of “when”, not “if”?. And like all other viruses, the vast majority of us that come down with it will experience mild to no symptoms at all and just go on with our lives. Isn’t it called Herd Immunity? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/2 "2020-04-03T20:13:31Z")
Moving to Quarantine. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/3 "2020-04-03T20:21:41Z")
Last projection I saw was 20-60% of people will get infected. Presuming that to be the tail ends of some sort of bell curve, your best bet odds would be 40% or somewhat less than a flip of a coin. [Cordyceps](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22214533&postcount=28) They might have better stuff at a hospital. But, by that point, you’ve already been hospitalized. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/4 "2020-04-03T20:22:55Z")
Herd immunity supposedly won’t kick in until around 70% of people get it. I’m still not sure what % truly are asymptomatic carriers. My understanding is when they say a person doesn’t have symptoms but tested positive, it could mean they don’t have symptoms yet. It can take up to 2 weeks for symptoms to start. I believe in one of the quarantined cruises they found that it was closer to 18% who were truly asymptomatic. Many asymptomatic people developed symptoms after a few days or weeks. As far as ‘mild’, I’m not sure what that means either. It could mean a slight fever, it could mean ’ 3 weeks of misery and pain but never needed to visit a hospital’. I wouldn’t consider the latter mild but thats kind of the definition I’ve seen thrown around for what counts as mild. The flu has an R0 of about 1.3, which means every infected person infects about 1.3 other people. So 3 people have the flu, they infect 4 more. Despite having a fairly low R0 that is barely above 1, the flu still infects 5-20% of Americans a year. The coronavirus is a 2.5 R0, and supposedly will infect 20-70% of people if allowed to roam freely. ---
**Author:** ![EastUmpqua](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eastumpqua/32/6025_2.png) [@EastUmpqua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EastUmpqua)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/5 "2020-04-04T23:50:09Z")
It’s very difficult to establish an RO at this stage of a pandemic. New York City is getting really hard hit. Other big cities (e.g. Shanghai, Tokyo, London, Moscow) have been exposed. Why so many cases in New York? ---
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/6 "2020-04-05T03:37:41Z")
> [@EastUmpqua](#): > > It’s very difficult to establish an RO at this stage of a pandemic. New York City is getting really hard hit. Other big cities (e.g. Shanghai, Tokyo, London, Moscow) have been exposed. Why so many cases in New York? On March 2nd Democrat NYC Mayor told (Tweeted) NYC resident to go out on the town and not worry about the virus. (Not the only reason, but it sure didn’t help). I believe his tweet coincided with the first know Corona Virus infection in the city. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/7 "2020-04-05T04:30:04Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > On March 2nd Democrat NYC Mayor told (Tweeted) NYC resident to go out on the town and not worry about the virus. And your link to that tweet is _where_, exactly? Because I’m looking at de Blasio’s March 2nd tweets right now and I don’t see one that says “go out on the town and not worry about the virus”. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/8 "2020-04-05T04:43:04Z")
> [@EastUmpqua](#): > > Why so many cases in New York? NYC is the most densely-populated place in the US, and it’s a city where most of the population relies on public transportation. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/9 "2020-04-05T04:43:16Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > On March 2nd Democrat NYC Mayor told (Tweeted) NYC resident to go out on the town and not worry about the virus. (Not the only reason, but it sure didn’t help). I believe his tweet coincided with the first know Corona Virus infection in the city. And yet you believe incorrectly. I looked through De Blasio’s tweets from the date you cite and he never tweeted what you claim. I also went back to 2/26 and still didn’t see what you incorrectly claim. Care to try again? This time with a link to a cite please. ---
**Author:** ![GESancMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gesancman/32/2923_2.png) [@GESancMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GESancMan)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/10 "2020-04-05T05:01:26Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > On March 2nd Democrat NYC Mayor told (Tweeted) NYC resident to go out on the town and not worry about the virus. (Not the only reason, but it sure didn’t help). I believe his tweet coincided with the first know Corona Virus infection in the city. What does his political affiliation have to do with anything? ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/11 "2020-04-05T06:38:58Z")
> [@GESancMan](#): > > What does his political affiliation have to do with anything? You are correct that his political affiliation should have no bearing, but the idiot in question did indeed say to go out on the town. > [@Mayor Bill de Blasio on March 2nd](#): > > Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film. > ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/12 "2020-04-05T07:20:25Z")
> [@DMC](#): > > You are correct that his political affiliation should have no bearing, but the idiot in question did indeed say to go out on the town. > > [x.com](https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229) The _real_ Bill de Blasio’s Twitter handle is @NYCMayor. I don’t know who @BilldeBlasio is, but considering that this account hasn’t been active for over a month and its profile has an “accomplishments” URL that leads to a 404, I doubt it’s the genuine article. Even if it is, it does _not_ say to “not worry about the virus” as **Mangosteen** claimed, and it appears to be a glib way of promoting an Italian arthouse film, not a general piece of advice. ---
**Author:** ![FinsToTheLeft](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finstotheleft/32/2930_2.png) [@FinsToTheLeft](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinsToTheLeft)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/13 "2020-04-05T11:56:06Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The _real_ Bill de Blasio’s Twitter handle is @NYCMayor. I don’t know who @BilldeBlasio is, but considering that this account hasn’t been active for over a month and its profile has an “accomplishments” URL that leads to a 404, I doubt it’s the genuine article. > > Even if it is, it does _not_ say to “not worry about the virus” as **Mangosteen** claimed, and it appears to be a glib way of promoting an Italian arthouse film, not a general piece of advice. When I hit the link in Twitter I get a blue check mark account for Bill de Blasio that is active and has been since 2012 with 200k followers. I believe this is his personal Twitter rather his official Mayor Twitter account. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/14 "2020-04-05T12:36:21Z")
> **[De Blasio, NYC Officials Downplayed COVID-19 Threat After Trump Restricted...](https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/03/30/de-blasio-nyc-officials-downplayed-covid-19-threat-after-trump-restricted-travel-to-china-here-are-5-examples/)** > > De Blasio and Oxiris Barbot took turns telling citizens in February and March that the virus was not as widespread as people thought. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/15 "2020-04-05T12:47:24Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > [De Blasio, NYC Officials Downplayed COVID-19 Threat After Trump Restricted Travel to China. Here Are 5 Examples.](https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/03/30/de-blasio-nyc-officials-downplayed-covid-19-threat-after-trump-restricted-travel-to-china-here-are-5-examples/) Perhaps you know this already (you didn’t say why you were providing the link), but that site is associated with the _Daily Caller._ Probably not the best source for reliable news: > [@](#): > > The Daily Caller is a right-wing news and opinion website based in Washington, D.C. It was founded by now Fox News host Tucker Carlson and political pundit Neil Patel in 2010. Launched as a “conservative answer to The Huffington Post”, The Daily Caller quadrupled its audience and became profitable by 2012, surpassing several rival websites by 2013. The Daily Caller is a member of the White House press pool. > > The Daily Caller has frequently published false stories. The website publishes articles that dispute the scientific consensus on climate change. The website has published articles by white supremacists, such as Jason Kessler and Peter Brimelow. Scott Greer was deputy editor at the Daily Caller; after his departure, it was revealed that he published articles espousing white nationalist, racist anti-black and antisemitic views under a pseudonym in white supremacist publications. ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/16 "2020-04-05T14:28:13Z")
> [@GESancMan](#): > > What does his political affiliation have to do with anything? It shouldn’t ---- but it certainly seems to in the heavily politicize cable news media — and it certainly seems to with all the goose-stepping followers of that Media. Just look around. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/17 "2020-04-05T15:06:56Z")
Would not a better strategy be to pour our resources into sheltering the more vulnerable while encouraging the lower risk groups to just go about their business and catch the virus. This would be after the first wave of course passes. I saw where it is estimated that after the first wave only about 3% of the population wold have immunity. Each shutdown causes enormous financial damage and I fail to see many long term benefits from it. The young and healthy groups would not likely overload the hospitals and if infected and becoming immune could greatly slow the transmission rates. ---
**Author:** ![GESancMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gesancman/32/2923_2.png) [@GESancMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GESancMan)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/18 "2020-04-05T15:28:50Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > It shouldn’t ---- but it certainly seems to in the heavily politicize cable news media — and it certainly seems to with all the goose-stepping followers of that Media. Just look around. Yes, of course. But I was talking specifically about **Mangosteen** ’s post. There was no reason for the word “Democrat” to be there, other than as a dig at… something? ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/19 "2020-04-05T15:29:38Z")
[Mayor Says That Healthy People Should Still Be Dining Out](https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-restaurants-safe-dine-out) From March 11 > [@](#): > > People should still be going out to eat at restaurants, Mayor Bill de Blasio said in a press conference about the new coronavirus on Wednesday — emphasizing that the virus “does not transmit through food and drink.” > [@](#): > > “If you’re not sick, you should be going about your life,” the mayor said. > [@](#): > > But the mayor emphasized that officials are trying to be careful about cancellations of services such as school or asking that businesses close down, saying that people losing their livelihoods also will have a huge impact. “We’re trying to strike a balance,” he said. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/20 "2020-04-05T16:04:22Z")
Pardon me for getting back to the OP. If the real R0 is 2.5 (and this is just a guess at this point since we really don’t know what percentage of infections are asymptomatic) this means that until the percentage of recovered (and presumably immune) population rises above 60%, it will continue to increase. One of these days I will try to calculate what the actual infection curve looks like. Once the recovered population goes above 60%, it will quickly die out. And then there will likely be a vaccine. But note that vaccines are not automatic; despite massive efforts, there has been no HIV vaccine after 40 years. The current efforts at containment are basically to flatten the curve. Try not to overload the medical system so let the cases spread out. Maybe a vaccine will come long before that 60% is reached. Try to save all the old farts like me. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997.md?page=2)