# Aren't the vast majority of us going to get infected by the Corona Virus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 3, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997 "2020-04-03T20:07:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/21 "2020-04-05T16:26:19Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Perhaps you know this already (you didn’t say why you were providing the link), but that site is associated with the _Daily Caller._ Probably not the best source for reliable news: That doesn’t negate what the article says. The article links to tweets and interviews by Deblasio. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/22 "2020-04-05T16:36:23Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Would not a better strategy be to pour our resources into sheltering the more vulnerable while encouraging the lower risk groups to just go about their business and catch the virus. This would be after the first wave of course passes. I saw where it is estimated that after the first wave only about 3% of the population wold have immunity. Each shutdown causes enormous financial damage and I fail to see many long term benefits from it. The young and healthy groups would not likely overload the hospitals and if infected and becoming immune could greatly slow the transmission rates. I keep seeing this misapprehension here and elsewhere, and it is flatly wrong. This is not just “an old peoples’ disease”. The “young and healthy groups” have a lower overall case fatality rate but they are not free of serious effects, and doing even a cursory search around the internet finds many articles like this: [Healthline: “Nearly 40% of Those Hospitalized for COVID-19 Are Under 55”](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-isnt-just-dangerous-for-older-adults). The majority of people who are being hospitalized have very serious cases requiring positive pressure or intubation ventilation, which means when the health system is overloaded by cases and beds and equipment are not available many more of these people will have serious complications or may die. And just letting or encouraging younger people to get the disease so most of them will have immunity doesn’t protect at-risk groups unless there is some system in place to provide strong isolation measures; for the most part, older and at-risk people still live with or work around younger people, so while herd immunity will help prevent against outbreaks becoming epidemics once the virus becomes endemic in the population it isn’t going to protect individuals right now in the middle of this epidemic. What is needed right now is to slow the spread of the virus sufficiently that the critical care health systems need to treat patients with severe cases of the COVID-19 disease is available. The “enormous financial damage” caused by isolation and lockdown measures is real and a concern because unemployment and economic downturns also result in avoidable deaths and other negative health outcomes but that is something that could be mititgated by good policy and fiscal leadership (sorely lacking at the moment). We cannot make any kind of policy that an infectious pathogen will follow, and the virus doesn’t give a shit about speechifying politicians. We can and need to improve the robustness of our financial, public health, and social support systems because this epidemic is a love tap compared to what a virulent influenza pandemic with case fatality rates in the double digits could do. As for the o.p., yes a significant portion of the population will become infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (not “Corona Virus” or “China Virus”, or “Wuhan Plague”…it is in a family of viruses called coronavirus because of the halo-like protrusion of peplomer on the caspid sheath of the virion), and only a small proportion will have a serious case of COVID-19. The purpose of isolation measures is to prevent people from dying unnecessarily as they did in Italy and Spain due to a lack of available medical care. Note that nations like South Korea and New Zealand have not had their health care systems overwhelmed even though they are experiencing outbreaks because they have have acted responsibly in taking measures (testing, tracking, isolation) to slow the progress of contagion, and thus, there are no horror stories coming from those countries about people dying in ER waiting rooms or elder care facilities because there are no beds or equipment. It seems that there is a certain…demographic of people who have decided we should just write off the vulnerable people as a part of doing business because they aren’t “productive” members of society anyway, which is just about two steps back from sending undesirables to the showers. In a just society we do not write people off just because they aren’t major shareholders or cranking out thingbobs at the widgets factory for twelve hours a day. If you want to live in a society like that there are plenty of them out there and I welcome anyone who feels that way to move to one of these places. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/23 "2020-04-05T17:31:07Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > I keep seeing this misapprehension here and elsewhere, and it is flatly wrong. This is not just “an old peoples’ disease”. … Misrepresenting the argument made is not a good approach: **HoneyBadgerDC** made no claim that COVID-19 is exclusively “an old people’s disease”. Portraying what he said as that “is flatly wrong.” He is _correctly and accurately_ stating that some populations are at significantly higher and some at significantly lower risk of serious morbidity and of mortality than others. He is wondering about what to do AFTER the initial surge, with some now immune and presumably many not yet, and _correctly and accurately_ stating that the highest risk people should continue to be most stringently protected. His thought that allowing the lowest risk back out first, while protecting those at higher risk more stringently, would potentially keep the rate of hospitalizations below thresholds while the gradually making the world less risky for those at higher risk, is not absurdity. In fact exactly who will count as lowest risk and how to loosen restrictions for them, while protecting those at greater risk in an ongoing manner, as the initial peak is past, is an important discussion for the experts to have, which may actually be informed with critical information by the time first wave/surge passes. To the OP - yes at some point some mass will be in the functionally “resolved” bucket, and few enough in the “susceptible” one that there will be relatively few new cases to occur. That won’t be “everyone” but for a particular standard of social interactions and admixtures it will some percent having had infection, be that infection serious or asymptomatic, or having become immune by way of a vaccine, if we wait that long. It is not yet clear what that percent is but it is a different percent various levels of social interactions and admixtures as different levels of those things impact the effective R0. In the absence of adequate data the approach may end up being slow release of the lowest risk and monitoring ICU admission rates for two to three weeks with a next phase of loosening if ICU admissions stay below some critical level. One such approach could be first those with antibody evidence of immunity (no guarantee of impossible to get again but clearly lowest risk), then perhaps allowing schools and camps to reopen, then adults under 40 in those demographics determined to be at lower risk (e.g. non-obese, no diabetes, etc.), and so on. If ICU admissions then rise above a threshold over the two to three weeks then pull back a level. But again, hopefully better key information will be available to inform the decision process at the point the decisions are to be made. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/24 "2020-04-05T17:38:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Misrepresenting the argument made is not a good approach: **HoneyBadgerDC** made no claim that COVID-19 is exclusively “an old people’s disease”. Portraying what he said as that “is flatly wrong.” Really? Because he said this: [QUOTE=oneyBadgerDC] _The young and healthy groups would not likely overload the hospitals_ and if infected and becoming immune could greatly slow the transmission rates. [/QUOTE] This is flatly wrong. > [@DSeid](#): > > But again, hopefully better key information will be available to inform the decision process at the point the decisions are to be made. Indeed. And one big part of that is widespread antibody testing so people can know whether they (likely) have immunity and will neither spread the virus or contract the COVID-19 disease. Until we have that, loosening up isolation measures will inevitably lead to further spread, more flare ups, and people who could be saved dying for a lack of resources. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/25 "2020-04-05T18:38:53Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > The _real_ Bill de Blasio’s Twitter handle is @NYCMayor. I don’t know who @BilldeBlasio is, but considering that this account hasn’t been active for over a month and its profile has an “accomplishments” URL that leads to a 404, I doubt it’s the genuine article. It’s genuine. He probably stopped posting on that handle because smarter people told him to stop being an idiot on such a large platform. > [@](#): > > Even if it is, it does _not_ say to “not worry about the virus” as **Mangosteen** claimed, and it appears to be a glib way of promoting an Italian arthouse film, not a general piece of advice. Telling people to get out on the town despite the coronavirus is the same thing as telling them to not worry about the virus. [QUOTE=Bill de Blasio on March 9th] When you’re near @ChelseaMarketNY (or perhaps going to @NY1 for an interview with @ErrolLouis), stop by @Seedandmill for some of the best halvah in NYC! New Yorkers are out doing their thing today and one thing’s for sure: they want their HALVAH! [/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Bill de Blasio on March 7th] @Chirlane and I had an AMAZING Yemeni breakfast this morning @YafaBrooklyn! I am now officially hooked on khubz, which makes other flatbreads look pretty boring. Another exciting + innovative new small business grows in Bklyn. Congrats, Team Yafa! [/QUOTE] People who worry about the virus aren’t hanging out in large groups of people. I’m about as liberal as they come and this guy happens to be on my side of the fence. Hell, he might even be smart about many things and might have come around since a month ago. Regardless, he was a fucking idiot about the pandemic and how to handle it last month. Many other people were as well, but that doesn’t let him off the hook. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/26 "2020-04-05T18:58:03Z")
OP: Yes. Only those in total physical isolation will remain uninfected and all will be affected as the social-economic web unravels. We’ll soon look back at NOW as “the good old days”. Enjoy what you have. Stay home. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/27 "2020-04-05T19:06:43Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > OP: Yes. Only those in total physical isolation will remain uninfected and all will be affected as the social-economic web unravels. We’ll soon look back at NOW as “the good old days”. Enjoy what you have. Stay home. This virus isn’t nearly deadly enough for such doomsaying. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/28 "2020-04-05T19:07:35Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Really? Because he said this:This is flatly wrong. … Really? You _know_ that when the first surge is past that that will be wrong, based on information at this time? I don’t know if it is true or not. I do think anyone who thinks they know does not know enough to know that they do not. I do know that New York City’s hospital system is over its surge capacity currently and that the under 45 crowd are [about 20% of the hospitalizations](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-in-young-people-ny-patients-skew-younger-some-die), with 80% of the hospitalizations 45 and over. In point of fact that is a skew to younger being hospitalized more than has been seen elsewhere, likely reflective that the younger are more often in the “essential” workforce and more likely in the less compliant groups than those older are. When broad antibody testing is completed I expect that we will see a _much_ higher rate of already immune in the under 45 than in the 65 plus group, to some slight degree already accomplishing what **HoneyBadgerDC** is proposing for phase two _after_ the first wave/surge has past. ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/29 "2020-04-05T19:31:57Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > I keep seeing this misapprehension here and elsewhere, and it is flatly wrong. This is not just “an old peoples’ disease”. The “young and healthy groups” have a lower overall case fatality rate but they are not free of serious effects, and doing even a cursory search around the internet finds many articles like this: [Healthline: “Nearly 40% of Those Hospitalized for COVID-19 Are Under 55”](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-isnt-just-dangerous-for-older-adults). Your citation only includes “young” people. How many people in the hospital were “young and healthy”? (healthy before COVID19, of course) ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/30 "2020-04-05T19:43:36Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > … > It seems that there is a certain…demographic of people who have decided we should just write off the vulnerable people as a part of doing business because they aren’t “productive” members of society anyway, which is just about two steps back from sending undesirables to the showers. In a just society we do not write people off just because they aren’t major shareholders or cranking out thingbobs at the widgets factory for twelve hours a day. If you want to live in a society like that there are plenty of them out there and I welcome anyone who feels that way to move to one of these places. > > Stranger While I completely agree with what you said there, it seems a bit harsh as a response to a quote that begins: > [@](#): > > Would not a better strategy be to pour our resources into sheltering the more vulnerable while … Maybe I misread your post? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/31 "2020-04-06T00:01:08Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > This virus isn’t nearly deadly enough for such doomsaying. It’s not deadliness that concerns me as much as infectiousness. Vast numbers of people getting sick enough for hospital beds, sure, but even more who are just too sick to work, to keep providing essential services. How long can MrsRico and I last here without trash pickup, propane delivery, fire trucks, the rest of the human machine that sustains us? A veritable firestorm is about to sweep the US South. The bad times haven’t yet hit. These ARE the good old days. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/32 "2020-04-06T00:51:34Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > It’s not deadliness that concerns me as much as infectiousness. Vast numbers of people getting sick enough for hospital beds, sure, but even more who are just too sick to work, to keep providing essential services. How long can MrsRico and I last here without trash pickup, propane delivery, fire trucks, the rest of the human machine that sustains us? > > A veritable firestorm is about to sweep the US South. The bad times haven’t yet hit. These ARE the good old days. There’s no evidence that the too sick to work number would be that overwhelming. ---
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/33 "2020-04-06T02:00:56Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > And your link to that tweet is _where_, exactly? > > Because I’m looking at de Blasio’s March 2nd tweets right now and I don’t see one that says “go out on the town and not worry about the virus”. Bill de Blasio @BilldeBlasio · Mar 2 Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc . If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film. ---
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/34 "2020-04-06T02:01:58Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And yet you believe incorrectly. I looked through De Blasio’s tweets from the date you cite and he never tweeted what you claim. I also went back to 2/26 and still didn’t see what you incorrectly claim. Care to try again? This time with a link to a cite please. Bill de Blasio @BilldeBlasio · Mar 2 Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc . If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film. ---
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/35 "2020-04-06T02:04:51Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Perhaps you know this already (you didn’t say why you were providing the link), but that site is associated with the _Daily Caller._ Probably not the best source for reliable news: “The Daily Caller has frequently published false stories” Documented examples. please. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/36 "2020-04-06T02:34:23Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > Bill de Blasio > @BilldeBlasio > · > Mar 2 > Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” > @FilmLinc > . If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film. Cool. Get back to me after you’ve gone through [this list of lies Loser Donald told about the virus last month,](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/fact-check-trump-coronavirus-false-claims-march/index.html) and we can talk about how de Blasio’s movie review tweet was worse than all of them put together. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/37 "2020-04-06T03:09:40Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > Your citation only includes “young” people. How many people in the hospital were “young and healthy”? (healthy before COVID19, of course) Probably quite a few. Look, I get it that people are thinking it’s silly to have healthy people who aren’t going to get a serious case of COVID-19 at home when they could be working and saving the economy, but that’s not the way this works. Those early reports that only young people with underlying health conditions are getting seriously ill? Yeah, turns out they’re wrong. From the same Bloomberg article \_\_\_ cited: “It’s young folks, previously healthy,” said Eric Wei, an emergency room doctor and chief quality officer at NYC Health + Hospitals, the city’s public hospital system. “They look like they have the flu. Within hours, they need oxygen. Within a few more hours they need a ventilator.” And keep in mind that only critically ill people ware getting admitted. Trouble breathing with a 102 degree temp and a bad cough? Yeah, you’re going home, and you probably won’t be tested. And hell, yeah, young people with no underlying health conditions [are getting seriously ill](https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html): > [@](#): > > We have known for some time that this new disease, Covid-19, was not only an older person’s disease. It has become clear that the young and healthy are by no means immune to this infection and could become sick enough to require hospitalization. > > And Dr. Anthonyt Fauci says, “We have known for some time that this new disease, Covid-19, was not only an older person’s disease. It has become clear that the young and healthy are by no means immune to this infection and could become sick enough to require hospitalization.” Why are so many young, previously healthy people seriously ill with this disease? Researchers are starting to think there’s something else at play that isn’t age-related. Possibilities include: • a gene variant of the ACE-2 gene that could make it easier or harder for the virus to get into the lungs. • In some patients, COVID-19 could deplete surfactants in the lungs, making it difficult or impossible for lungs to function. • > [@](#): > > In some young, healthy people, a very reactive immune system could lead to a massive inflammatory storm that could overwhelm the lungs and other organs. In those cases, it is not an aged or weakened immune system that is the problem – it is one that works too well. • OR > [@](#): > > “Perhaps it is that some younger healthier people, thinking they are not vulnerable to this disease, have been less diligent about practicing physical distancing, and as a result have been exposed to much larger viral loads from the environment.” Maybe at some point we’ll be able to identify people at very low or no risk or this disease. Then we’ll have to figure out how we’re going to know who’s in that group and who’s not. Something tells me this could take a while. ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/38 "2020-04-06T11:48:49Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > Probably quite a few. Look, I get it that people are thinking it’s silly to have healthy people who aren’t going to get a serious case of COVID-19 at home when they could be working and saving the economy, but that’s not the way this works. Those early reports that only young people with underlying health conditions are getting seriously ill? Yeah, turns out they’re wrong. This is a strawman fallacy or the either/or fallacy. No one here is saying that it’s ONLY an old person’s disease or ONLY young people with underlying health conditions get it. We’re saying that older people and those with underlying health conditions are MUCH MORE LIKELY to require hospitalization or die from this disease. That is the point. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/39 "2020-04-06T12:25:41Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > This is a strawman fallacy or the either/or fallacy. No one here is saying that it’s ONLY an old person’s disease or ONLY young people with underlying health conditions get it. We’re saying that older people and those with underlying health conditions are MUCH MORE LIKELY to require hospitalization or die from this disease. That is the point. I’m not actually sure what the point was. It got lost somewhere upthread. What we are finding is that the definition of vulnerable is changing. Quite a few places are talking about “protecting the vulnerable” as if it was a simple problem. It wasn’t long ago that it was an old person’s problem, then it became a co-morbidity problem, and now it is slipping again. This should probably not be a surprise, it isn’t as if we have had time to draw breath on the issue. But it does make decision making harder. Life would be much easier if you simply had to keep the over 70’s warm and safe. The political and ethical issues become much harder when it is clear that there is a separate vulnerable population, currently a minority of vulnerable, but quite clearly there, and they are both harder to identify, and are much harder to keep safe. This development will not have been a happy surprise for those trying to plan the next phase. ---
**Author:** ![Dark\_Sponge](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dark_sponge/32/121_2.png) [@Dark\_Sponge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dark_Sponge)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997/40 "2020-04-06T14:37:31Z")
Yes, the point is to slow down the infection rate to stop the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. In countries where healthcare systems were overwhelmed the death rates rose to as high as 10%. Yes, the majority of us will get infected and yes slowing down the infection is important. I’ll take 3% over 10% any day. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/arent-the-vast-majority-of-us-going-to-get-infected-by-the-corona-virus/850997.md?page=3)