# Armed rebel group planning Zimbabwe coup **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 15, 2003, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418 "2003-11-15T12:50:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/1 "2003-11-15T12:50:20Z")
Via Australian gay- and human-rights campaigner Peter Tatchell, who is best known for his attempt to perform citizen’s arrest on Mugabe when he was in Belgium on the grounds of international human rights violations (and got assaulted and knocked out by Mugabe’s bodyguard for his trouble), a group calling itself the \*\*[Zimbabwe Freedom Movement\*\*](http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/africa/11/13/britain.zimbabwe.ap/) has announced that it is planning a coup. > [@](#): > > Tatchell said ZFM consisted primarily of serving members of the Zimbabwean armed forces, police and intelligence service, and estimated that its membership ran into the “low thousands.” The group, that claims to be “thousands strong”, expressed its desire for a “bloodless democratic revolution”, but is asking Mugabe to step down, or face “judicious use of appropriate force”. The British government has said it wants nothing to do with the group. I am largely opposed to violence, but the Movement for Democratic Change (which has no affiliation with the ZFM) is being harrassed and illegaly thwarted at every opportunity to oppose or overthrow Mugabe. Is armed insurrection and/or assassination the only way that the Zimbabweans can get rid of Mugabe? Should the West support such a coup? Or could this lead to another civil war? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/2 "2003-11-15T13:19:24Z")
I guarantee the west (well, the US, at any rate) won’t support them until they win. Really, why should this come as any surprise at all? And what faith should anyone have that this would lead to a bloodless democratic coup? I’m not particularly conservative on foreign affairs but I know I like to see my country stay the hell out of situations without a potential happy ending…and I don’t see one for Zimbabwe. It saddens me, yes, but I just don’t see it. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/3 "2003-11-15T13:57:46Z")
There is a great deal of precedent for Western involvement with insurgency (Cuba, Vietnam, Sierra Leone, etc.). What would make this different? What worries me is that they don’t seem to have a post-coup political manifesto. Though I doubt Tatchell would knowingly ally himself with any group that would compromise human rights. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/4 "2003-11-15T14:01:00Z")
It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/5 "2003-11-15T14:05:25Z")
I don’t think we’ll get involved here because Mugabe poses no threat to the US. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/6 "2003-11-15T14:11:33Z")
Well, we’re post-Vietnam now, jjimm. There’s a lot more skepticism towards such things these days. Add in a few more points… 1. No Cold War. The USA got into the ‘rebellion’ business largely to prevent socialist and communist regimes from gaining power. 2. A general sense of hopelessness regarding Zimbabwe and other parts of the sub-sahel regions of Africa. It always appears (to the US public, at least) to be a problem without a solution. 3. Overcommitment of US forces. So military assistance is flat out as an option. 4. The upcoming election in the USA. That’s going to color everything. 5. Lack of compelling strategic reason for intervention. No natural resources, no terrorists blowing up Americans, no nothing to provide incentive for the US to pay attention. 6. And, I hate to say it…but the US doesn’t have a great record of giving a damn about dictatorial regimes in countries where the prevailing population is…um…melanin-enhanced. Look, I agree that Mugabe should go and that the entire world should work on making that happen. But I don’t see it as a priority for the leaders in western democracies when they could more profitably (for them, at least) spend their time trying to provide jobs and security. Sad but true. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/7 "2003-11-15T14:18:47Z")
Well I meant support as in provision of arms and financing, rather than on-the-ground troops. Also, the US is involved in Central America despite lack of strategic necessity (or does anyone still take the War on Drugs seriously?). However, when I say “western” I don’t necessarily mean US. Recently, the UK overtly intervened in Sierra Leone, and France intervened in the Côte d’Ivoire, neither of which were strategic manoevres. Mind you, there could already be covert funding, but of course we wouldn’t know about that… ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/8 "2003-11-15T14:43:41Z")
Well, I admit I was approaching this from an American perspective. The European democracies operate on different rules in my experience. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/9 "2003-11-15T15:32:05Z")
Never mind the United States. Never mind Europe. How is **South Africa** going to respond? They do have an army, don’t they? Much bigger and better than Mugabe’s army, I’m sure. And they must care – Zimbabwe is on their borders, its troubles are bound to spill over. The two countries have historical ties. And SA hasn’t had a real unifying “project” since Apartheid ended – maybe the ANC government will decide that intervention in Zimbabwe is just what they need. Mugabe is an embarrassment to the whole idea that Africans can run their own affairs democratically and without racism; ousting him would give the ANC added legitimacy. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/10 "2003-11-15T15:40:15Z")
By the way, there is also an organization (all-white, apparently) called the “Rhodesian Government in Exile” – [http://home.wanadoo.nl/rhodesia/Exile/](http://home.wanadoo.nl/rhodesia/Exile/). I don’t know how serious they are. And there is an anti-Mugabe radio station called “SW Radia Africa” – [http://www.swradioafrica.com/](http://www.swradioafrica.com/) – based in London, which broadcasts into Zim via shortwave transmitters in SA. And here’s a Mugabe parody website: [http://mugabe.netfirms.com/index.htm](http://mugabe.netfirms.com/index.htm) ---
**Author:** ![spogga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3ab097/32.png) [@spogga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spogga)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/11 "2003-11-15T16:23:15Z")
Ever since Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) declared UDI under Ian Smith the country has been in turmoil. Now that SA have apparently got their house in order it’s up to them to sort out whatever problems Zimbabwe have, not the US or UK or any other ‘outsiders’ ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/12 "2003-11-15T17:02:53Z")
> [@](#): > > Is armed insurrection and/or assassination the only way that the Zimbabweans can get rid of Mugabe? If one has no patience at all, yes. But Mr. Mugabe is elderly and nature will undoubtedly take its course at some point. > [@](#): > > Should the West support such a coup? Or could this lead to another civil war? What Zimbabwe needs most is a legitimately-elected government, and in fact the means have such are already in place, absent ZANU-PF’s manipulations on behalf of Mugabe. The west should support lawful efforts to remove Mr. Mugabe from power in any way it can. I don’t think throwing western support behind a shadowy organization, run by unknowns, with no more than a few thousand supporters, and which promises to take action mainly through violence, would be very helpful in this regard. ---
**Author:** ![London\_Calling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@London\_Calling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/London_Calling)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2003, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/13 "2003-11-15T17:06:38Z")
Rather than “the west”, the appropriate forum for all things Zimbabwe is the Commonwealth. If anything is to be done, that’s where a consensus will be formed, decisions made and action taken. Unfortunately, it also smacks of the old Imperial white fellers thinking it’s still the 19th century and interfering with African affairs. Not surprisingly, Magabe himself fosters these notions. Good example was the attempt to get Zimbabwe suspended from [the Commonwealth](http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,11538,661873,00.html): “Mr Blair, backed by Australia, Canada and New Zealand, pushed for immediate suspension at the summit in Australia but was opposed by a bloc of African countries.” IMHO: - Also a lot of important undercurrents. Example; have to remember the support Mugabe gave to the current South African leadership in the dark days when the ANC operated out of Zimbabwe. Long history and big debts owed by everyone from Mandela to Mbeki to Comrade Mugabe – that’s important because SA is now the ‘regional super power’ and nothing will happen without Mbeki’s say-so. Plus, Africa is still emerging (politically, economically . . .) from post-colonial communism. There’s still a ‘pecking order’ of nations to organise . . .there’s quite a bit happening under the bed sheets . . . but the perceived personal debt from the Apartheid era i s very important. ---
**Author:** ![Alan\_Owes\_Bess](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c37758/32.png) [@Alan\_Owes\_Bess](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alan_Owes_Bess)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2003, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/14 "2003-11-16T01:56:16Z")
There would be little, if any, prospect of any outside group unsupported by one or more of the neighbouring countries, to achieve a coup in Zimbabwe. It is more likely that some kind of fund raising scam may be involved here, rather than a serious attempt to change the current regime in Zimbabwe. > [@](#): > > - posted by Jonathan Chance\* > > 1. And, I hate to say it…but the US doesn’t have a great record of giving a damn about dictatorial regimes in countries where the prevailing population is…um…melanin-enhanced. Haiti? Grenada? Does the Dominican Republic or Cuba count? Would the Iraqi level of melanin enhancement be enough to qualify? And why drag in this irrelevency as a “factor”? ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2003, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/15 "2003-11-16T03:02:31Z")
> [@](#): > > Haiti? Grenada? Does the Dominican Republic or Cuba count? > > Would the Iraqi level of melanin enhancement be enough to qualify? > > And why drag in this irrelevency as a “factor”? Chile, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Argentina, Iran, and pre-Castro Cuba? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2003, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/16 "2003-11-16T17:42:13Z")
Posted by **London\_Calling:** > [@](#): > > Rather than “the west”, the appropriate forum for all things Zimbabwe is the Commonwealth. If anything is to be done, that’s where a consensus will be formed, decisions made and action taken. Please tell us more about this. In the States we tend to forget the Commonwealth even exists, and when we think about it we are none too clear on how it works. My understanding is that it is not like the EU, more like the UN – an association of completely independent states who might or might not pay attention to resolutions of the assembled body. Since the Commonwealth was created, in what cases has it exercised some kind of intervention in the internal affairs of a member state, as you are proposing? ---
**Author:** ![spogga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3ab097/32.png) [@spogga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spogga)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2003, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/17 "2003-11-16T18:12:07Z")
BRAINGLUTTON: [www.thecommonwealth.org](http://www.thecommonwealth.org) will tell you all you need to know ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2003, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/18 "2003-11-16T22:41:54Z")
Even with the best of intentions, even against the most brutal dictators, armed revolutions have a very strong tendency to go bad. The American Revolution was something almost unprecidented and nearly miraculous: A sucessful revolt that did _not_ result in a dictatorship, or decades of civil war and counter-revolution. You have only to look at the English, French and Latin American revolutions to see more typical results. The US government got soured on the idea of supporting supposedly “democratic” revolutions after our withdrawing support from the Nationalist government in China simply handed the nation over to the Communists, and especially after we lauded Castro’s overtrhow of the corrupt regime in Cuba, only to have him promptly declare himself a pro-Soviet communist. I’d love to see Mugabe ousted, but a coup is very unlikely to produce anything better. ---
**Author:** ![syncrolecyne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f08c70/32.png) [@syncrolecyne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/syncrolecyne)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2003, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/19 "2003-11-17T01:17:54Z")
It’s not just poor mostly black countries like Zimbabwe that are neglected by the international community…I see no great effort in Western Europe and America to do a thing about the level of repression and lack of democracy in Belarus (Lukashenko) or Georgia (Shevardnazde) either. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2003, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418/20 "2003-11-17T14:34:51Z")
I checked out the Commonwealth website. I found the following statement under “Commonwealth Secretariat”: > [@](#): > > The Commonwealth is committed to a set of fundamental values spelt out in the Harare Commonwealth Declaration of 1991, at the core of which is belief in and adherence to democratic principles. > > We promote democracy through advocacy of democratic principles and practical action to help make them a reality: > > • Mutual Assistance - we work to improve democratic arrangements through the observation of elections and the provision of technical assistance and training. > > • Promotion of Best Practice – through the organisation of workshops, seminars and conferences and the production and circulation of publications we work to promote ‘best practice’ and in general to strengthen democratic values and culture. > > • **CMAG – the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group, a group of eight Foreign Ministers, can take action against countries which are in “serious or persistent violation” of the democratic principles;** > > The purpose is to ensure that democracy in the Commonwealth is a matter of substance, not merely the adoption of democratic forms. But that’s all. It does not say which eight foreign ministers make up CMAG, or what “action” they can take, or have taken, against member countries which are in “serious or persistent violation” of democratic principles. There’s no such thing as a Commonwealth Army, is there? Are they talking about trade sanctions? If CMAG declared sanctions on Zimbabwe, would all Commonwealth countries respect that? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/armed-rebel-group-planning-zimbabwe-coup/213418.md?page=2)