# As I’ve said before, this war will only end when NATO troops deploy openly in Ukraine, and not before **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 29, 2023, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366 "2023-04-29T11:03:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2023, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/146 "2023-07-10T00:38:18Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m not convinced about what China perceives as its best interest though. An unstable collapsing nuclear power ruled by dictator to be determined or on going up for grabs may not be an imminent risk of exporting problems into China cross border, but the problems it potentially creates disrupts the world economy therefore China’s growth and influence. China would certainly _prefer_ a weak but non-imploding Russia. They may not be able to create one though. So far they have played a smart game in several other conflicts of not over-committing to a particular outcome when they are but a 3rd party observer. A skill the USA might usefully learn. A Russia that is essentially an large Viet Nam would suit them fine. Nominally similar politics and a generally friendly regime, or at least one whose enemies and rivals lists largely corresponds with China’s own. With whom they can trade outside of the Western-dominated system. And yes, there is some frictional rivalry between them, but their commonalities are much greater than their differences. I am not someone who subscribes to the “The Chinese are 10 feet tall and will conquer the world” narrative. They are far from all-knowing or all-powerful. Xi is a bit impulsive for my tastes in major league world leaders. But in all I give them high marks for navigating this mess as they have so far, and I believe they recognize that the chess pieces are moving into an auspicious alignment for them. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2023, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/147 "2023-07-10T00:59:17Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > I am not someone who subscribes to the “The Chinese are 10 feet tall and will conquer the world” narrative. That Red menace narrative is a bit of a Red herring. China is major player in this dynamic with ambitions to eventually unify with Taiwan and expand their power and influence. They do not control Russia but they have sizable levers to use, and of equal import, to not use. Russia ending up as a large Viet Nam is an ambition for China like a soft landing for our economy is. And similarly they want want exert the levers they have to thread the needle. I would suspect the Wagner affair gives them pause to keep Russia on track for a controlled collapse, landing in that Viet Nam position. And again a free fall collapsing former empire with lots of nuclear weapons but not much else and little hopeful prospects forward is likely something they want to steer away from. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2023, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/148 "2023-07-10T01:22:39Z")
Agreed. Well said. They want Russia down, but not out. And loyal enough to have the same enemies China does, if not necessarily for exactly the same roster of reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2023, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/149 "2023-07-10T23:59:27Z")
There is one extremely risky move that NATO could attempt, but it’s the height of brinkmanship: announce that Ukraine will join NATO at a given future date and reiterate that every single inch of NATO land will be defended with the full force of the alliance. No doubt that’s been gamed and is far too risky and desperate. Better to let Ukraine drive them out using conventional means. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/150 "2023-07-11T00:07:47Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Honestly, I’ve been yearning for Russia to attack a NATO state in some way ever since the war began. Given the extremely frightening likelihood of this resulting in nuclear war, please yearn less. ---
**Author:** ![Common\_Tater](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/common_tater/32/13846_2.png) [@Common\_Tater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Common_Tater)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/151 "2023-07-11T00:35:06Z")
War is Not Healthy For Children and Other Living Things ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/152 "2023-07-11T01:10:31Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > There is one extremely risky move that NATO could attempt, but it’s the height of brinkmanship: announce that Ukraine will join NATO at a given future date and reiterate that every single inch of NATO land will be defended with the full force of the alliance. from a pure “game-theory” POV … that is about the most stupid thing you could do. You rob yourself of all other options and limit yourself to ONE. Whereas your counterpart has all options at his disposal AND you allow him to dictate your actions. IOW: why would you self-limit your option space? FWIW: somewhat less stupid (but stupid nontheless) was Biden’s comment on “UKR will not be part of the NATO” a few days ago … Had he answered “we’ll cross that bridge when we get to the bridge” (or some other cryptic BS-answer 😉 ) … he’d have more options … ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/153 "2023-07-11T01:35:57Z")
There is a prohibition in the NATO charter against accepting new members that are already at war. Biden saying (directly or obliquely) that Ukraine would not join while the war was on was not news. It’s established treaty for ~75 years now. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/154 "2023-07-11T07:59:58Z")
Not to mention Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not be joining NATO while this war is still ongoing, as he seems to have a good understanding of the situation. ---
**Author:** ![Mk\_VII](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5f9b8f/32.png) [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2023, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/155 "2023-07-14T20:56:38Z")
It could writing a post-dated check that the Bank of NATO is not willing to cash. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2023, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366/156 "2023-07-14T22:04:59Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Not to mention Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not be joining NATO while this war is still ongoing, as he seems to have a good understanding of the situation. That won’t prevent Ukraine from joining NATO the day after the war ends - even if the peace treaty with Russia _specifically states_ that it won’t join NATO. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/as-i-ve-said-before-this-war-will-only-end-when-nato-troops-deploy-openly-in-ukraine-and-not-before/983366.md?page=7)