# asahi, can you cut out the "Chicken Little" crap already? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 26, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773 "2016-10-26T14:29:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/81 "2016-10-28T18:32:25Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Mongooses(eseses )are [are naturalized in Hawai’i](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Asian_mongoose#Introduction_to_Hawaii). Take your anti-immigrant racism somewhere else! See, there we go. We just need Rabid Mongoose’s Hawaiian birth certificate. Surely no one will have a problem with that, right? ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/82 "2016-10-28T19:23:54Z")
**[FBI is re-opening investigation into Clinton’s email](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=808797)** Has anyone heard from **asahi**? Chrissakes, he’s probably got a razor in his hand right now if he hasn’t been completely overcome by the vapors. Maybe we send out a welfare check on the poor lad? ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/83 "2016-10-28T19:36:54Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > Has anyone heard from **asahi**? He’s been over in the MLB Postseason thread, making some really bad arguments about the nature of home field advantage. As someone said over there: > [@MLB. And here comes the Post Season!](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mlb-and-here-comes-the-post-season/767171/716): > > All of a sudden, **asahi** ’s overreactions to the various polls in Elections makes perfect sense. > > Dude, you need to go take a class on statistics, esp. on statistical significance. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/84 "2016-10-28T19:47:38Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > **[FBI is re-opening investigation into Clinton’s email](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=808797)** > > Has anyone heard from **asahi**? Chrissakes, he’s probably got a razor in his hand right now if he hasn’t been completely overcome by the vapors. Maybe we send out a welfare check on the poor lad? He’s going rather apey [in a baseball thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19733992&postcount=705). Now I can see why he overreacts to every poll, he has no concept of true statistical significance… ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2016, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/85 "2016-10-28T20:12:46Z")
He’s being a nitwit in the MLB thread. My issue with him in the elections threads is that he seems incapable of stating a plain opinion or thought about something without it being THE BIGGEST THING EVER. Read through his posts in a thread. Every other one will talk about how THIS is the MOMENT that EVERYTHING CHANGED. One day will be the big break the Clinton campaign was waiting for. The next will be the Trump breakthrough. Then back. Then forth. If you find that you are declaring the race over again and again and again, maybe you should stop prognosticating and start thinking. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/86 "2016-11-10T01:17:42Z")
There was a thread about me? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/87 "2016-11-10T01:30:59Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > He’s going rather apey [in a baseball thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19733992&postcount=705). Now I can see why he overreacts to every poll, he has no concept of true statistical significance… No, I think my point was, some people rely too heavily on quantitative analyses and don’t factor in qualitative factors as well, some of which can actually explain the quantitative side of things. As it turns out, I don’t really have anything to brag about either – I was also wrong. But like Nate Silver I refused to buy into this notion that the race was somehow static and over. Anyone with half a brain should have realized the complexities we were dealing with in assessing the race before last night. Sam Wang is a smart guy - smarter than I’ll ever be. But in this one way he was just missing the obvious. Stat guys sometimes overlook qualitative aspects and belief in their math a little too much. I think that’s my point, and I think I was vindicated, even if agree that I don’t quite get everything there is to know abut stats. As for the home field advantage thread, I stand by a position I’ve held for a long time, which may or may not have been articulated well in my posts, but that position is that I really tend to think of “home field advantage” as something that is exaggerated by the sports media. But if it exists at all, it exists in baseball. I don’t care what winning percentages say – they don’t necessarily prove a home field ‘advantage’ in basketball or football anymore than it points to the lack of an advantage in baseball. Someone gloated about the visiting team winning the majority of games in the World Series – an observation not lost on me. So what? The Cleveland Cavaliers won 2 road games against the team with the best winning percentage in NBA history. If home field was such an advantage, that shouldn’t have happened. But it did because Cleveland was mentally superior and executed better in the moment than Golden State, just like Chicago did against Cleveland in baseball. My argument for home field advantage is one based on simple logic. Baseball, a sport in which pitching and defense are extremely important, is a sport that allows different playing field configurations than other sports. I know some will argue that home field in NBA and NFL is the result of emotions and pressures of playing a road game against a hostile crowd – baseball players deal with those same emotions. What’s different is that in the NBA or NFL, the field configuration is the same. The dimensions are the same. If you’re running a pick and roll, you’re basically hitting the same spots in Oracle Arena as you would be at Boston Garden. If you’re a QB running a quick slant, you’re throwing to the same spot in Gillette Stadium as you would at Levi’s Stadium. In baseball, it’s different. If you’re chasing a baseball backwards in the outfield and you’re playing in a visiting stadium, you’re probably less aware of where to play the wall. If you’re a pitcher who’s comfortable giving up fly balls to lefty in AT&T park, you’re going to have to think about that approach in Fenway Park. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2016, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/88 "2016-11-11T19:27:18Z")
I feel this needs to be resurrected to note, in support of “Chicken Little” **asahi** , that the sky did actually fall. (ETA: I dunno anything about baseball, though.) ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2016, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/89 "2016-11-11T20:06:51Z")
And I blame him completely. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2016, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/90 "2016-11-11T21:09:39Z")
Note that a stopped clock can still be right, twice a day. Criticizing his overreactions to each and every little new poll and news story can still be valid criticism, despite the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/91 "2016-11-16T00:46:41Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > Note that a stopped clock can still be right, twice a day. Criticizing his overreactions to each and every little new poll and news story can still be valid criticism, despite the outcome. And you - and others - completely mischaracterized my posting. I never overreacted to every little poll in and of itself. My whole point all along was that a) Hillary Clinton was a weak candidate (as was Trump for that matter), b) the strength of third party candidates, and c) the mood of the electorate made this an unpredictable election. I felt all along that Hillary Clinton was the favorite, but that she was vulnerable and particularly on specific issues such as trustworthiness, which is something that raised its ugly head with the Comey letter. But even before the Comey letter I was criticized by multiple people for pointing out that Trump was succeeding because of White Christian Nationalism. In fact, JohnT told me twice to “dial it down” because he didn’t feel that this was an accurate assessment of the electorate. Well guess what: nobody would question that my assessment was right - 100 %. Not when you have Stephen Bannon as the Karl Rove of 2016. Sorry folks, but I was right. And I was right more than just 2 times a day. Some of you leaned a little too heavily on 538 and Sam Wang and were trying to “educate” me on the subject of statistics. What I was trying to point out to you all along – and what you finally learned – was that there are qualitative arguments, not just quantitative ones. Math is influenced by certain factors beyond the math. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/92 "2016-11-16T02:55:47Z")
You jinxed it. I calibrate your Eeyore factor at about five percent, which means that as many as 113 dopers were exposed to your negative waves. Of these, as many as eight didn’t vote because it was too depressing, another five because it was futile, and one guy who just, like, forgot. You should go to your room and think about what you’ve done. Or the kitchen, if that’s where you keep the beer. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/93 "2016-11-16T04:47:52Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > And you - and others - completely mischaracterized my posting. I never overreacted to every little poll in and of itself. My whole point all along was that a) Hillary Clinton was a weak candidate (as was Trump for that matter), b) the strength of third party candidates, and c) the mood of the electorate made this an unpredictable election. I felt all along that Hillary Clinton was the favorite, but that she was vulnerable and particularly on specific issues such as trustworthiness, which is something that raised its ugly head with the Comey letter. > > But even before the Comey letter I was criticized by multiple people for pointing out that Trump was succeeding because of White Christian Nationalism. In fact, JohnT told me twice to “dial it down” because he didn’t feel that this was an accurate assessment of the electorate. Well guess what: nobody would question that my assessment was right - 100 %. Not when you have Stephen Bannon as the Karl Rove of 2016. > > Sorry folks, but I was right. And I was right more than just 2 times a day. Some of you leaned a little too heavily on 538 and Sam Wang and were trying to “educate” me on the subject of statistics. What I was trying to point out to you all along – and what you finally learned – was that there are qualitative arguments, not just quantitative ones. Math is influenced by certain factors beyond the math. You may have been correct in predicting the outcome of this election, but you had many dire and incorrect predictions during the Democratic primary. Don’t strut like a peacock, you’re still chicken little. What I see in your posts is that like most people you do not like to see anything you value left to chance, but unlike a lot of people you look for threats to your desired outcomes absolutely everywhere and seem to treat them all with equal urgency. So you’re a valuable chicken little. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/94 "2016-11-16T06:10:56Z")
Didn’t you guys get the notice? He’s the very best source the SDMB has!!! [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19779634&postcount=107](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19779634&postcount=107) ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/95 "2016-11-16T14:52:49Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > I’m beginning to hold the opinion that **asahi** works for the Republican Party. He has done little except attempt to spread doom, gloom, and despair. I certainly don’t hold his ability to pundit in high regard; he’s pretty useless. Yes, he is useless but his efforts need to be commended. He puts in a lot of time typing those posts which we (at least I) like to read and disagree with. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/96 "2016-11-16T16:03:40Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > Yes, he is useless but his efforts need to be commended. He puts in a lot of time typing those posts which we (at least I) like to read and disagree with. Yeah, but you’re as dumb as a fucking bag of hammers and a bigot to boot, so your praise is not exactly a convincing argument for the utility of his posts. ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2016, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/97 "2016-11-16T17:59:30Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > Yeah,\*\* but you’re as dumb as a fucking bag of hammers and a bigot to boot, \*\*so your praise is not exactly a convincing argument for the utility of his posts. Please elaborate (in appropriate thread). ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/98 "2016-11-17T23:46:56Z")
> [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](#): > > You may have been correct in predicting the outcome of this election, but you had many dire and incorrect predictions during the Democratic primary. Don’t strut like a peacock, you’re still chicken little. Yes, but along with some correct ones as well (Wisconsin primaries, for instance). The real ‘crime’ that was committed by me (and Nate Silver) is that I was telling you things that you just refused to believe. You wanted to believe in the polls, and you wanted to believe in the data. You tried to turn something that is extremely difficult to predict, human free will and voting in an election, and tried to argue that it’s some sort of science. And in the end, the voters took that smugness and shoved it straight up your ass on election night. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2016, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/99 "2016-11-17T23:55:31Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > I remember **asahi** ’s posts from the primary season. Most of them predicted that Sanders would eventually capture the superdelegates and the nomination. Sanders would do much better in NY than anyone expected, would probably win PA and CT, would crush Clinton in CA. Sanders would win a majority of states (what this had to do with anything I never figured out), would have the coveted Momentum going into the convention, would have victories in some of the largest states, and it would prove impossible to deny him the nomination with all of that. > > Of course, **asahi’s** crystal ball proved to be deeply flawed. Interestingly, I assumed after the first few posts that s/he was a Sanders voter. I was very surprised to read a post a little later on that began “As a Clinton supporter…” I had a hard time distinguishing “oh my God this is terrible” from “oh boy look what wonderful thing is going to happen.” > > I haven’t noticed **asahi’s** doom-and-gloom so much vis a vis Trump. Probably I’m just not reading the right threads. But if it’s happening, well, it sounds exactly like what **asahi** was posting during the primaries as well. Clearly s/he comes by it honestly. Actually, I don’t recall saying that Sanders would win the nomination. Rather, the concern was that Sanders would go on a winning streak that would continue through California and thus lead into a Democratic Convention with a situation in which Clinton was winning on the basis of superdelegates. Again, my critics misrepresent what I have said, probably because they have repeatedly failed to understand the political dynamics of which I have spoken. There is much more to consider here than what polls, polling averages, aggregators, and trendlines predict. My concern was that we would possibly find this out the hard way in the summer when Sanders could have, had things developed fortuitously for him, made a case that he, and not Hillary, would have had a more legitimate claim to representing the Democratic party, an argument that would have led to a break-up of the democratic party in advance of the general election. As it turned out, Sanders was unable to win New York and Pennsylvania, and ultimately failed to win California. His campaign ran out of gas. But my point was, things could have been much different. We didn’t find out how weak Hillary Clinton was until last week. The ‘best’ was saved for last. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2016, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773/100 "2016-11-18T00:15:50Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > But my point was, things could have been much different. That’s your point, huh? One second, you’d say the race was over and Clinton would win in a walk. The next, you’d say that Trump was rising. Now for you to strut around and declare you were so right and no one else wanted to listen to your shining wisdom is laughable. Yes, if you make every prediction, back every horse, guess every outcome, some of your guesses will be right. And your point is that things could have been different if they were different is not exactly Nobel worthy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/asahi-can-you-cut-out-the-chicken-little-crap-already/769773.md?page=6)