Asia Pnumonia - bio-weapon accidentally released?

[Asylum]

*Originally posted by Urban Ranger *
**What outbreak? It’s just another event that has been sensationalised by having-nothing-better-to-do media. We have like 40 people sick and 20 have been confirmed to be pneumonia. It’s nothing. **

WHO issued its first global alert for 10 years earlier this week because of the speed at which the disease travels and because patients are not responding to the usual treatments for pneumonia, Thompson said.

Italics mine.

If WHO has taken the rare step of issuing a global alert and this virus is on three continents and in however many countries then I’d say it is not nothing and is something.

And as for the bioweapon theory I need a smiley that has the eyeballs shooting out through the back of the head. A disease that is only three percent fatal and has an incubation period of two to five days or so is not an effective instrument of terror and has a real good shot of coming back to haunt you. It’s just a virus doing the Darwin thing.

[Yeah]

“Could the pnumonia outbreak in southeast Asia be man-made - either deliberatly or accidentally?”

Of course, just like your next case of sniffles could be UBL’s revenge.

However, there is nothing about the current outbreak to suggest that it is not natural. The only peculiarity I am aware of is the exceptional number of international travelers among the 150 cases so far reported and the fact that it seems to be highly transmissible in hospitals but not outside of hospitals. Very strange.

However, if this is really just a bunch of secondary cases of an unkown pnrumonia outbreak that happened a month or two ago in China (that was never satisfactorily diagnosed) then the spread so far is not so peculiar and then the situation is more like the Philidelphia outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease in the late 1970s. In the current climate, an oubreak exactly like that (i.e., high rate of fatalities among dozens of persons who attended an American Legion convention in a big East Coast City) we’d have mass panic in the streets. Yet today, not many people lose sleep over Legionnaires’ Disease.

[ShibbOleth]

*Originally posted by Broomstick *
**Indeed. So I’m glad someone is keeping an eye on it.

Problem is, we have jet travel these days. They already had an infected person on a plane out of Singapore pass through New York - where there are now some people in quarantine - and then onwards to I forget where. If this turns into a pandemic we’ll have to do something about people moving around so much until the disease dies down. The flu of 1918 was bad enough with just ships and trains - add intercontinental airplanes and you have a real potential mess.
**

I believe you are referring to a doctor from Singapore who had treated a patient (with the symptoms of this syndrome, now called “SARS” ) then attended a conference in New York City. He flew from NYC to Singapore via Frankfurt. In Frankfurt he was pulled from the plane, along with his travelling companion. The plane then continued on to Singapore. Some media have stated that the other passengers on that plane have been quarantined, but not sure if this is accurate or they’ve just been placed under observation, and whether this includes all Frankfurt bound passengers or just those who travelled on to Singapore.

Note that this syndrome is believed to have a 2-7 day incubation period, and it just made the news last week. Also, it’s not clear how long it takes to become critical/fatal. So we don’t really know yet what the infection or fatality rates are. It’s certainly something to be concerned about. Personally, I don’t think that panic is ever the correct response to anything.

[ShibbOleth]

Here are some cites from BBC News online.

A British man returning from Hong Kong has been admitted to hospital with a suspected case - the UK’s first.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued a rare emergency warning over the weekend, declaring the sickness “a worldwide health threat”, and saying that cases had been reported on three continents.

England’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Liam Donaldson, told the BBC that the man had been admitted to hospital after falling ill after coming back from Hong Kong.

He said: "This is something we are viewing very seriously.

“We are not sure whether the case is linked but we are treating it as a possible link”.

So far, there have been four deaths related to the pneumonia - and another five in an outbreak of a similar infection in a province of China, although the two have not yet been definitively linked.

…

A British expert says that it is unlikely that the illness is flu - the most frightening scenario for experts.

Professor John Oxford, a world-leading figure in virology, based at Queen Mary’s College in London said that the fact that a culprit had not yet been identified was good news.

He said: "If it was influenza, I expect we would have heard this by now. That’s certainly rather reassuring.

"It doesn’t look like a ‘zing-dinger’.

"This has been smouldering around the Far East for some time - it’s not as if it has just exploded.

“I wouldn’t get too worried about this.”

The WHO warned travellers and airport staff to be on the look-out for signs of the condition, known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

Note: underlining is mine.

from a second article on BBC, Q&A Mystery Illness
Known symptoms of the infection are similar to those experienced by an influenza sufferer, including high fever, headache sore throat, and cough.

In some cases pneumonia has developed, with patients finding it very hard to breathe - some have required artificial ventilation in hospital.

In the absence of a better description, the World Health Organisation have termed it “Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome” (SARS).

[ShibbOleth]

Here’s a link to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) page on SARS.

And a link to the World Health Organisation (WHO) page, which has four of it’s top links devoted to SARS.

[bernse]

*Originally posted by Urban Ranger *
**High fatality rate? Suppose there are 300 cases with 9 people dead. That’s a fatality rate of 3%. **

So far. There is still a lot of people in Hospital from it. As mentioned, it isn’t responding to treatment.

This mildly concerns me. What a shitty month.

[shijinn]

10 days later and now the figures are 1323 cases 49 deaths

still 3% or so. this outbreak is probably natural but are there any measures taken to stop a suicidal terrorist from infecting himself with various diseases, board a plane into the country and visiting the local cinema?

[shijinn]

/off topic
funny how i don’t think anyone would protest my use of the masculine above…
/ends

[ShibbOleth]

There is a thread with running updates on SARS over here.

[green_bladder]

I’ve counted roughly 2 out of every 10 here in Hong Kong wearing protective masks. Looks like a giant hospital ward. Sad.

And I just wanted to know if its a coincidence that they named it S.A.R.S after Hong Kong SAR? Doesn’t bode well for tourism hey.

[Sunspace]

“Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome”. Typical boring descriptive name, nothing to do with HK.