I see you replied.
A Tom Clancy -type scenario wherein a new Keiritsu will somehow subvert the Japanese Government is I think the only way Japan will go nuclear in a state of belligerence. That, even in a defensive situation. There are lot of cheaper and more popular ways to hold off China. The best is strategic alliances. That’s why everyone pooh-poos any country claiming the title of biggest military power, etc., etc. A one-on-one numeric superiority is crap when you have a dozen countries united against you.
I wouldn’t say that other countries are actually worried about Japan going nuclear and invading other countries. China treats war stuff as an adjunct to economic negotiations. Korea has some territorial conflicts, but nothing that is likely to escalate to a shooting war; ditto Russia.
North Korea is the only place that might cause a real problem. They like launching missiles in the general direction of Japan. If one of those actually hits something, excrement will disastrously meet turbine. Otherwise, probably not that much to worry about in the short-term.
There are a few reasons the growth of support for the right-wingers in Japan might make some people nervous, though. One is the past success Japan has had in gearing up and kicking ass. Another is its absolutely shitty track record when it comes to acknowledging and taking responsibility for its behavior in the past. Also, as earlier posters pointed out, Japan has a substantial military and could — if it returned to its previously expansionistic ways — cause a huge fucking mess in Asia. Finally, something that almost no one ever mentions because of the whole “had to be nuked twice to get them to finally surrender” thing at the end of WWII, Japan could tool up to be a member of the nuclear club in a very short time period.
What originally scared the shit out of the entire world was that Japan went from an agrarian-based feudal society to an industrial-based (nominally) constitutional monarchy in about 40 years, which put them on a belligerently expansionistic trajectory that eventually culminated in the WWII Pacific conflicts. About 4 generations from rice farming and samurai to building aircraft carriers and invading half of fucking Asia/Oceania with a modern army that rivaled that of states that had over a century head-start on them.
Part of the problem with Japan’s acknowledgement of its past is cultural. Japanese think that after a public apology and show of contrition, the right thing to do is for both parties to pretend the problem didn’t happen. Plus, Japan did, in the past, pay reparations for war crimes in Korea, China, and various Southeast Asian countries. Most Japanese now are like, “Seriously? This shit again?” Read the comments here at Rocket Japan, which are translations of actual Japanese news stories and social media reactions to them, for a very recent sampling.
Japanese history textbooks are extremely light on analysis, heavy on facts: people, places, dates. Even putting it in the best light, this means that Japanese kids don’t learn a whole lot about anything in history, so any accusations of whitewashing is more like daubing paint over a few knotholes. I have been a lot more indignant about Japan’s denialist tendencies, at various times in the past, but I mostly just shrug lately. It’s not like my home country is all that great with the historical shit themselves, or have that great of a track record with racist politicians <insert current Trump reference here>.
The long-term trends make me worry about internal problems more than external. I’ve been living and working in Japan since 2000, and none of the trends have been positive. Anti-Chinese sentiments have grown a lot, to the point where normal people informally boycott Chinese-made anything and complain about how many Chinese there are. There’s only a fraction of a percent of the population that’s Chinese (less than 2% of the total population is non-Japanese) so most of the “worries” are based on bullshit, but facts never get in the way of public sentiment.
There were also concerns about Minshutô extending suffrage to any property owners, regardless of nationality. No idea how realistic that was, but my relatives discussed it quite a bit while the party was in power.
There have also been a few anti-foreign shifts. Labor shortages prompted importing labor, mostly in the form of preferential visas for nisei, but then the government started trying to entice as many of them to “go back home” since they found out the hard way that a) Japaneseness isn’t inheritable, and b) dealing with cultural and ethnic minorities is pretty damn difficult.
As anecdotal proof that Japan still doesn’t do that very well, my wife and I have been apartment hunting off and on for the last year, looking for a better place with more space in a better school district, and have been rejected from even looking at a few places because the owners don’t want any gaijin residents. Usually, the saying goes, Japan is socially about 20 years behind the US. On this one, they’re a little further behind.
Sleel, perhaps you can answer my oft posed question. “Why did some Japanese eat POWs in WWII?” That seems to me to be odd even for a feudal culture.
No one is seriously considering Japan a threat because of past success. For the track record of the lack of apologies, see Post 18.
No. This is simply wrong. The world now is completely different than in the 1900 to 1940 period and Japan could not repeat what it did before. Unlike the early 20th century, Korea, China and Taiwan are for too strong for Japan to seriously threaten them and both the US and China would have far too much at state to idly sit by fiddling while Japan went on another rampage through smaller countries. Name one serious threat that it could create a “fucking mess” in any specific scenario.
It cannot leave the US alliance for decades. It simply doesn’t have the budget and with the now decreasing population attempting to pay for ever-longer living retirees, they aren’t going to have the money to build a military which could overwhelm China, the only practical way they could invade another country. The Japanese debt is crippling, and the only reason they are still solvent is that the debt is mostly held by Japanese. As people retire and continue to draw down on savings, this situation will not longer remain tenable.
Again something we’ve already discussed in this very thread. Even a nuclear armed Japan is of no real threat to its neighbors.
That actually didn’t scare the shit out of the entire world or if it did it was only a matter of a few months in December '41 to Midway and then the Guadalcanal campaign took off and the US stopped their expansion. Neither Britain or the US took Japan seriously before Pearl Harbor and while they won a few contested battles against incompetent commanders. I’m looking at you Arthur Percival and Douglass MacArthur.
They simply lacked the industrial might to take on the US in a total war, something they themselves recognized but believed that the Yamato-damashi spirit of Japan would save them.
Their rapid Westernization after the Meiji Restoration to the Second Invasion of China was actually 70 years, and really didn’t take that much longer to catch up than many Western countries did once the industrial revolution took place. Nor did they really catch up. Japan at the eve of WWII had far fewer cars or tractors per person than the US, for example, which crippled them when it came to training mechanics for the war.
They only had one-tenth of the war making potential of the US at the beginning of the war and had to devote an ungodly, unsustainable amount to war production.
Japan produced six carrier in 1941, and then only 11 more during the war. The US produced 141 during this period, and although most were “jeep carriers,” or smaller CVEs, it should be noted that the US carriers outclassed the Japanese.
They did as well as they did simply because they got a jump on the unprepared Western allies but were never able to replicate the early successes.
The complaints against the Chinese is more from external friction where the Chinese want to ratchet up tension over the contested islands rather than any small increase in Chinese in Japan.
Yes. Every. damn. time. I don’t think you are serious about actually wanting to discuss it, but would rather simply bring it up again and again. See post no. 18 for the basics of an explanation.
Sorry, no clue on that one. Understandably, no one I know has so much as mentioned something like that, and I haven’t done any reading on the subject. I do know it has absolutely nothing to do with feudalism. My wild-assed guesses, which are worth precisely nothing: 1) They were really hungry, 2) They were curious, 3) They didn’t see the prisoners as people, 4) All of the above. My bet is on 4, but I wouldn’t put down more than my lunch money.
The bizarreness of a cannibal being on talk shows is out there even for Japan, but it happened. Doesn’t mean Japanese people in general think eating people is perfectly okay, but apparently curiosity about seriously fucked-up people is enough to overcome the level of squick.
Americans love the shit out of violent crime shows like Criminal Minds and Hannibal has become an anti-hero. Go figure.
A great deal of taboo is bound up in culture. Stuff that makes people cringe here, like walking into a house with shoes on — or even worse seeing them lying on a bed with shoes on — is nothing in the US. I saw the latter in the second episode of Ascension the other night. After all the time I’ve spent here it struck me as pretty gross. Picture someone wiping their ass on the pillowcase before lying down to get the same approximate response.
I said as much in my first paragraph. Japan has the potential to cause problems (re: my statements on current military capabilities, past rapid development, nuclear capability) but no one seriously thinks Japan would or could actually attack anyone right now. Considering that there are American bases everywhere, any aggression would be impossible without collusion from the American government.
What I was talking about were historical problems and current potential capabilities. Because of past wrongs and current potential, it’s understandable that the political ratcheting to the right might make some people nervous.
Frankly, Abe’s public statements are fucking creepy. He’s so deluded about Japan’s War past that he doesn’t even see how wrong he is, and has no conception that the rest of the world sees things differently. Because he’s comfortable spouting such complete historical revisionist bullshit, the black van crowd feel less inhibited and more of those sentiments stand a chance of becoming mainstream.
It doesn’t mean that Japan is going to nuke North Korea six months after one of their “rocket tests” splashes down within Japanese territory, but it sure as hell doesn’t make anyone with a modicum of pacifism inside or outside Japan feel good about Article 9 already being partially abrogated and conservatives already pushing for more revisions. Hopefully it never happens, but there’s been talk of taking much more active roles in peacekeeping missions, including support and resupply in active conflict areas, and shooting back if they get shot at when doing so.
These specific things would be danger signals that aggression was imminent: 1) Leases for US military bases lapsing and subsequent bye-bye to American forces; 2) Active recruitment for Jieitai forces; 3) Stockpiling supplies, especially food, fuel and fissionables. Absent those, no, I completely agree that Japan poses no threat.
Which is reasonable for any country.
Wow, stockpiling means aggression is imminent?
Thanks, Sleel.
Adding on to my previous answer, what is the point of this question in this particular thread? We are looking at the chance of Japan becoming aggressive again. Are you suggesting that Japanese would eat POWs again? If not, then what exactly is the point of the question? No one is disputing that the Japanese did some really horrible things in the war. I gave some reasons in my answer, which you ignored, and can give more. Why don’t you open another thread and it can be discussed there?
In this thread, I’ve already addressed the current military capabilities, which are not enough to permit Japan to become aggressive; the “rapid” development, which wasn’t out of line with other countries and which could not be repeated now; and nuclear capabilities all without comment from you. None of these factors allow Japan to be considered any kind of potential threat at this point. All of your points simply do not make a case for worry.
The point is that there is not a way for the current Japan to become a super aggressive state which can threaten other countries in the same manner as Russia, for example, or Germany, Italy or Japan prior to WWII.
If the US decides to collude with Japan, then the problem is with the US and not Japan. We are the powerhouse, and it would be the US which would be the problem, not simply Japan. There is damn near zero percent chance of that occurring.
This is all nice and fine to talk about people getting nervous, but again, who? Specifically? It ain’t going to happen for another 50 years unless really unimaginable circumstances occur. China, the US or both would not tolerate a return to Japanese aggression on the scale of preWWII days.
Nor can Japan build up a military which is overwhelming compared to China or anywhere near parity with the US, both of which occurred in the 1930s.
Japan could very well become more assertive internationally, but there is a world of difference between becoming stronger and more pushy and then become truly a threat to other countries such as Russia could be seen as now.
Despite the low, but non-zero possibility that ultra-right wing views could become much more popular, the chance of Japan becoming a real threat in Asia is close to zero. Japan simply doesn’t have the desire to conquer other countries like it wanted to in the early twentieth century. So they want to become more assertive? No one is talking or thinking about invading other countries. No one. That just ain’t goin’ to happen.
And even if they became crazed aggressors for some reason, something would have to happen to both China and the US, as well as other regional powers.
Japan also has a functioning democracy. While debate and press exposure is nowhere near the same league as the West, it is light years ahead of China, the other country in Asia which is more likely to become belligerent. In the 1930s, democracy was completely subverted by the military through political assassinations. The Meiji Constitution had the military report directly to the emperor, and not under the Prime Minister. That doesn’t happen now.
Japan has already served in hot spots before. They had rules which allowed them to shot back if they were shot at. So what? They’ve had 70 years to prove that they aren’t monsters any more.
This is a rather silly list, and quite dated. Where are the rare earth minerals? That’s much more important than many other things.
Japan is even more dependent on foreign suppliers for everything from oil to metals. There simply isn’t any way that the Japanese can continue to provide pensions for the 25% of the population which is 65 and older while building a military strong enough to contest the shipping lanes. There simply isn’t a chance of that happening.
This all just seems like a tempest in a tea pot. Much ado about nothing.
The US has apparently proposed an alliance of the US, India, Australia and Japan to play a larger role in patrolling the South China Sea and confronting China over the militarisation of the artificial islands there. (towards end of article below)
Japan’s agreement to demilitarize and then build only a defensive military was contingent on the U.S. acting as Japan’s protector. The U.S. has been particularly feckless against China and North Korea, both of which are becoming increasingly aggressive. Newly resurgent isolationism in the U.S. has to be stoking fears that Japan may be left out in the cold and China may become even more aggressive in asserting control in the South China Sea and perhaps elsewhere.
Expect to see more of this. Those of you who think the U.S. should stop being the world’s policeman and should withdraw from bases in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the Middle East should understand that increased militarization of other countries is the inevitable result, leading to a less stable world.
Don’t be surprised to see an increase in the number of countries that start building their own nuclear arsenals. If Japan wants to have nuclear missiles, it can build them in very short order. A nuclear Japan that close to a nuclear China would be destabilizing for the world, but it seems that no one cares any more to maintain the kind of large U.S. military presence that for 60 years has kept a lid on nuclear proliferation and regional military buildups in dangerous areas.