I would suggest to you SenorBeef that you very much underestimate the importance (in particular from the long term health perspective) of what fat and what carbohydrate. A calorie is not a calorie; a gram of fat is not a gram of fat; a carb is not a carb.
The highly significant health effects difference achieved by replacing dietary saturated fat with PUFAs is overwhelmingly well established. That link is a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that addressed the issue, not just looking at the usual proxies of long term outcomes, but actual rates of myocardial infarction and/or cardiac death: “10% reduced CHD risk … for each 5% energy of increased PUFA” The MUFA data is more indirect, demonstrating improvements of proxies of long term health in population studies. And I won’t even bring up the whole bit about omega 3s!
Similarly the packaging of the carb is critical. That refined, highly processed, and/or simple carb package is pretty well accepted by now to be as bad as you make it out to be. Carbs packaged in real foods that include the fiber and a variety of phytochemicals OTOH help increaseinsulin sensitivity and lower insulin levels, as well as provide protection from a variety of cancers and inflammatory conditions. (Note the second link demonstrates better insulin sensitivity on a high cereal fiber diet than on a high protein diet.) The improved insulin sensitivity may also underlie the well identified lowered cancer risks associated with a higher fiber diet. If what you care about is insulin then decreasing simple carbs is indeed important, but keeping carbs with fiber is more so.
As to the nature of ancestral diets, we are probably best off looking at worldwide hunter gatherer diets as a proxy. Yup, overall more protein than typical Western diets, ranging 19 to 35% of energy, and less carbs, ranging from 22 to 40% of energy. (And obviously not from refined processed sources!) Still even that lowest end carb percent is 110 grams for a 2000 kCal diet, much more than most “low carb” diets advise. Note that there is no overlap between your cited 10 to 20% figure and the 22 to 40% figure of hunter gatherer diets. Agreed that the typical American diet, and even the USDA guideline is higher than that ancestral (or at least hunter gatherer) range and that someone who wants to replicate the macronutrient profile of that diet should eat less than the USDA’s advised 45 to 65% of energy from carbohydrates, but “low carb” diets miss that goal equally as much in the other direction.
High sodium is more well established as a very significant health risk than you make it out to be btw.
No debate that losing fat mass, at least 5% from an obese baseline, is good for ones health, whether that is done low carb or low fat or a variety of other approaches. Your goal of doing so by a method that works for you is laudable and only you can determine what method works best for you.
My “Ask the” question remains - are you currently concerned about medical concerns that address your short term function or are you currently considering longer term health issues? I will add in: would your longer term plan be different depending on the answer to that question?
