Assuage my paranoia. Explain to me why I should have faith in E-voting machines

Great Debates
81

[QUOTE=BrainGlutton]
Bear in mind, now you are talking about:

  1. A fundamentally different kind of election fraud, and

  2. One we can be fairly certain does not exist, based on a recent study commissioned (and suppressed) by the U.S. Electoral Assistance Commission. (Covered in this recent thread.)

[/QUOTE]

That first one is the thread I’m talking about. You seem to think that just because there has been no proof of widespread voter ID fraud that the problem should be ignored, yet despite the fact that there has been no proof of widespread voter fraud with the Diebold machines either, that problem is of critical urgency. I find this stance hypocritical. I think both problems need to be addressed, and that has consistently been my position both here on the SDMB and IRL.

82

For those interested in what level of proof is required for Diogenes to conclude that the Republicans stole the 2004 election with voting machine fraud:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445722&postcount=206

Interesting how he was he able to conclude, “clearly” that the Republicans were cheating in this way before the polls closed in some states.

And he says “again”. So the Republicans did it twice! He knew this, for sure. Amazing fellow, our Diogenes. Aptly named.

Of course, skeptics abound:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445746&postcount=212

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445757&postcount=215

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445765&postcount=221

And those pesky, rational Dopers refrain from getting too excited about exit polls, and actually apply logic to the early returns, even if they don’t like the apparent results:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445581&postcount=172

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445701&postcount=197

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445790&postcount=229

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445983&postcount=317

But Diogenes is unconvinced. If the exit polls are wrong, then Bush cheated!. It’s proven! Put them in jail immediately! We have all the proof we need, right now on election night!

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445794&postcount=230

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445805&postcount=234

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446480&postcount=583
While those that aren’t governed by our passions and prejudices call the election:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446505&postcount=602

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446516&postcount=607

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446527&postcount=615
But not Dio. Even as other states fall into the Bush column, he’s still positive that there was cheating:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446884&postcount=779

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5447046&postcount=832

It’s not possible that the Dems lost! I’ll never surrender! I refuse to accept what happened!

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5447112&postcount=853

They cheated in Florida, too! If I just keep saying “Diebold”, that proves cheating!

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5447122&postcount=858

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5448220&postcount=897

And you know what? Two years later, he’s saying the same thing, with no more evidence than he had on election night.

83

[QUOTE=Evil Captor]
I believe you have already found it.
[/QUOTE]

Uhm, settling out of court is not teh same as entering a guilty plea. Maybe the reason you are so perplexed that people don’t come to the same conclusions you have is that your conclusions are based on bogus assumptions.

84

[QUOTE=Random]
For those interested in what level of proof is required for Diogenes to conclude that the Republicans stole the 2004 election with voting machine fraud:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445722&postcount=206

Interesting how he was he able to conclude, “clearly” that the Republicans were cheating in this way before the polls closed in some states.

And he says “again”. So the Republicans did it twice! He knew this, for sure. Amazing fellow, our Diogenes. Aptly named.

Of course, skeptics abound:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445746&postcount=212

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445757&postcount=215

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445765&postcount=221

And those pesky, rational Dopers refrain from getting too excited about exit polls, and actually apply logic to the early returns, even if they don’t like the apparent results:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445581&postcount=172

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445701&postcount=197

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445790&postcount=229

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445983&postcount=317

But Diogenes is unconvinced. If the exit polls are wrong, then Bush cheated!. It’s proven! Put them in jail immediately! We have all the proof we need, right now on election night!

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445794&postcount=230

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5445805&postcount=234

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446480&postcount=583
While those that aren’t governed by our passions and prejudices call the election:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446505&postcount=602

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446516&postcount=607

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446527&postcount=615
But not Dio. Even as other states fall into the Bush column, he’s still positive that there was cheating:

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5446884&postcount=779

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5447046&postcount=832

It’s not possible that the Dems lost! I’ll never surrender! I refuse to accept what happened!

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5447112&postcount=853

They cheated in Florida, too! If I just keep saying “Diebold”, that proves cheating!

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5447122&postcount=858

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=5448220&postcount=897

And you know what? Two years later, he’s saying the same thing, with no more evidence than he had on election night.
[/QUOTE]

My evidence was the exit polls. With everything we’ve since learned about Diebold, my suspicions have only become more justified.

Not that any of your post really answers my OP.

85

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
My evidence was the exit polls. With everything we’ve since learned about Diebold, my suspicions have only become more justified.
[/QUOTE]

I remember reading in Skeptical Inquirer once about this guys claim for ‘evidence’ that the moon landings were staged. It had a lot of diagrams with how shadows were falling in different directions, and stuff about how the foot prints were all wrong. To this guys mind, this constituted ‘evidence’. This is a more extreme example, but I trust you see the parallel? Maybe?

-XT

86

Exit polls are routinely used be election monitors and observers to check the accuracy of results in other countries. They are extremely accurate and it’s taken as a given by those who monitor elections in fledgling democracies that if the exit polls don’t match the results, something fishy is going on. And what a coincidence that the exit polls were “off” only in the areas where Diebold was in use. Trying to paint justified supsicions about those machines as crackpot conspiracy mongering is just transparent hand waving.

87

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
Exit polls are routinely used be election monitors and observers to check the accuracy of results in other countries. They are extremely accurate and it’s taken as a given by those who monitor elections in fledgling democracies that if the exit polls don’t match the results, something fishy is going on. And what a coincidence that the exit polls were “off” only in the areas where Diebold was in use. Trying to paint justified supsicions about those machines as crackpot conspiracy mongering is just transparent hand waving.
[/QUOTE]

You keep believing your conspiracy theories if you like, but you’re not going to be successful in peddling them here. The exit poll issues were addressed the day after the election and were caused largely by early poll numbers being leaked-- data which normally would not be broadcast because it was too damned early. This kind of stuff was all over the news in stories like this one (from a few months after the election):

88

What difference does it make if the exit polls were leaked early? How does that make them any less accurate?

89

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
What difference does it make if the exit polls were leaked early? How does that make them any less accurate?
[/QUOTE]

For one, you have a smaller sample size, but there are also different demographics that tend to vote at different times. IIRC, woman are more likely than men to vote in the morning, for example.

90

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
What difference does it make if the exit polls were leaked early? How does that make them any less accurate?
[/QUOTE]

That says it all right there. :stuck_out_tongue: You never took a Statistics or Probability class in college, did you?

-XT

91

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
And what a coincidence that the exit polls were “off” only in the areas where Diebold was in use.
[/QUOTE]
That’s not how I remember it. I seem to recall that many states had wide variance between the exit polls and actual vote counts. States like SC where it was solidly Bush, and states like NH where it was solidly Kerry. Variances both for Bush and for Kerry. Every single one of those used Diebold electronic voting machines?

John Mace’s quote has the one key point that always seemed to be missing. “systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment” If you’re going to swing a whole state like Ohio, and only a portion use these hackable machines, each of those precincts needs to have a proportionally larger fraudulent vote to affect the final tally. That is going to stick out like a sore thumb, but I haven’t seen a single shred of evidence that it was the case.

92

[QUOTE=alphaboi867]
How oftern does Canada have every office federal, provincial, and local office up for election on the same ballot?
[/QUOTE]
Yes. Canadian federal, provincial, and local elections are held at different times and conducted by different authorities (federal, provincial, and municipal election commissions). And there are only 1/10 as many of us.

In the last federal election, I chose one person out of 6 for one office, my local MP. Likewise for the provincial election (my local MPP), and municipal election (my local city councillor). Everything else–the choice of Prime Minister or Premier, for instance–was automatically generated by the system.

There are many fewer contests in Canadian elections as well. It took me a long time to realise that part of the controversy about the 2000 election was that the ballots for every city and country were different. Not only did they include federal and (I think) state candidates, but also all kinds of local candidates and questions. And everything was handled ly local election authorities.

Why do you guys lump everything together like that?

93

[QUOTE=Sunspace]
It took me a long time to realise that part of the controversy about the 2000 election was that the ballots for every city and country were different.
[/QUOTE]
Er, that would be ‘county’, not ‘country’.

94

Anothet thing, trying to argue that my suspicions aren’t justified is really beside the point of this thread. The debate is not whether my suspicions in '04 were justified, I was asking for reasons why I should trust the e-machines now without a paper trail. The best way to shut me up would be to give me a paper trail. Calling me a whiner or a nut is just an attempt to change the subject.

BY the way, I don’t believe either *XT or John Mace has answered the question about whether they personally trust the Diebold machines. Can either of you offer a single reason why there should not be a paper trail?

95

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
BY the way, I don’t believe either XT* or **John Mace has answered the question about whether they personally trust the Diebold machines. Can either of you offer a single reason why there should not be a paper trail?
[/QUOTE]

For my part, I answered your question up thread as to the matter of trust. If you were asking if I think there are serious flaws in the current eVoting machines (including those from Diebold), I would say that I have some concerns. But you aren’t really asking that…you are implying that there is a vast Republican conspiricy, and that the machines are all part of it. I’m seeing no real evidence of that, and it smacks of a conspiricy theory to me. YMMV…obviously it does.

-XT

96

[QUOTE=Cheesesteak]
John Mace’s quote has the one key point that always seemed to be missing. “systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment” If you’re going to swing a whole state like Ohio, and only a portion use these hackable machines, each of those precincts needs to have a proportionally larger fraudulent vote to affect the final tally. That is going to stick out like a sore thumb, but I haven’t seen a single shred of evidence that it was the case.
[/QUOTE]

This kind of answer is helpful and helps me relax my paranoia just a little, but what happens when all or most of the precincts are using those machines. We’re already going to be at 40% nationwide for this election next month.

97

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
BY the way, I don’t believe either XT or John Mace has answered the question about whether they personally trust the Diebold machines. Can either of you offer a single reason why there should not be a paper trail?
[/QUOTE]

I never said there shouldn’t be one. I just wonder whether it’s going to do what you think it’ll do. I’m concerned whenever we switch over to a new system-- there are bound to be problems and people will try and exploit those problems. But keep in mind that it was the Florida fiasco that led to the outcry to switch to e-Voting in the first place. There were better ways, IMO, to address those issues than to implement a whole new system for voting.

98

[QUOTE=xtisme]
For my part, I answered your question up thread as to the matter of trust. If you were asking if I think there are serious flaws in the current eVoting machines (including those from Diebold), I would say that I have some concerns. But you aren’t really asking that…you are implying that there is a vast Republican conspiricy, and that the machines are all part of it. I’m seeing no real evidence of that, and it smacks of a conspiricy theory to me. YMMV…obviously it does.

-XT
[/QUOTE]

If zI’m such an irrational conspiracy nut then isn’t that all the MORE reason to create a paper trail?

99

[QUOTE=John Mace]
I never said there shouldn’t be one. I just wonder whether it’s going to do what you think it’ll do.
[/quote]

It’ll provide something tangible and reliable as a means to confirm results or resolve conflicts. It will also shut me up.

100

I worked on Kerry’s campaign in Ohio. We conceeded the state because our data showed that we hadn’t won. There may well have been illegal chicanery, but not enough to make a difference. I’d say that the near criminal negligence of the boards of election (creating huge lines) probably had a much bigger impact in the end, but that can’t fall squarely on either party, other than in general, Democratic districts had a lot worse BOE’s.